10 August 2009

The Plot To Assassinate SBY...

It seems that the weekend raids on the terrorist organization of Noordin M Top has failed to locate and arrest or kill the main man himself. However, the raids have uncovered what is purportedly an advanced level of planning towards an attempted assassination of the president. Although, I still think the aftermath of the JW Marriott and Ritz-Carlton hotel bombings was poor timing to reveal that there were plots to assassinate him underway, it is interesting, and important, that greater detail of the plans are coming to light of the alleged plots.

The fact that Top is not dead means that the plots to assassinate SBY may still be well-advanced. It is unclear whether this was a solitary cell tasked with this particular assignment or whether Top has multiple cells operating independently of each other and given similar orders. The rationale being if one gets found out there will be others to step into the firing line.

It is surprising that the security detail on the president has been stepped up. Surprising because he is afterall the president and one would figure that the security detail would always be on a heightened level of alertness.

The assassination plot allegedly involves a rather large car bomb and 500kg of explosives. The aim to detonate the bomb close enough to the president that he would be killed. The two most likely targets were the president's private residence in Cikeas, Bogor, or the State Palace.

The more likely of these targets would have been the private residence as reports are suggesting that security prior to the public uncovering of the plot was a lot less than optimal. The idea of getting a car or van bomb closer enough to the president in the vicinity of the State Palace would really require some insiders to facilitate the movement of the car or van into a location where the deed could be done.

Apparently, the attack and assassination of SBY would be in retaliation for the executions of the Bali Bombers; Amrozi, Mukhlas, and Samudra, and because SBY runs a pro-western government.

The recent raids do not seem to have killed the possibility of future attacks. However, with a bit of luck the raids will have further disrupted the ability of Top and his band of terrorist followers to commit further attacks, and in essence buy some time for anti-terrorism authorities to capture the man.

The plan is brazen, and the fact that Top believes that he could have done it is indicative of a confidence among Top and his followers that anything is possible for them. Hopefully, this over-confidence will lead to more mistakes and the anti-terrorism authorities will dissolve the network once and for all.


Harry Nizam H. said...

A good analysis Rob.
The terrorists must surely have and will spend lots of money to achieve their goals.
I wonder who are financing them?

Rob Baiton said...


Mate, it is an interesting question. There are two main financing tools as I see them, and it is likely a combination of the two.

A single or several large financiers or a grass roots campaign where lots of small time donations are collected (maybe the ultimate destination of these small donations is unknown to the person making the donation).

Harry Nizam H. said...

Large finaciers must know where the money are going.
I hope no government is involved.

Rob Baiton said...


Indeed they must.

Osama bin Laden would be a large financier, right? I am sure he knows where his support is going.

Governments? Why not? There are governments sympathetic to the idea of bringing down the west and pro-western governments, aren't there?

Maybe all this discussion about the involvement of the armed forces is a case of where there is smoke there is fire. Therefore, maybe it is not governments per se that are involved but elements within the structure.

All very interesting discussion points at this stage.

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Rob Baiton said...


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