"Reform Unplugged"

A shout out to Treespotter who has made a post already using this title. I have been toying with the idea of writing a piece on how the events in Egypt over the [almost] past three weeks is perhaps a lesson that Indonesians could heed, some Indonesians more than others. Conversely, the reform that Egyptians so overwhelmingly crave could do with a shot of reality, particularly regarding the pace of managed or guided reforms. A managed reformasi process is something that all Indonesians are all too familiar with. On that note, anyone looking for an interesting read on the similarities, head over to Jakartass.

The other reason for the 'unplugged' title is that I have been chilling out to a couple of unplugged albums; Bob Dylan and Neil Young. And, the lack of creativity that I have suggested that something 'unplugged' would make a good blog post.

Hosni Mubarak was a tyrant, a dictator, that has supposedly amassed a fortune somewhere in the vicinity of USD 40 to USD 70 billion over the course of almost 30 years of power. He has done this at the expense of his people. It is little wonder that critical mass was reached and protests began. I have always wondered why tyrants and dictators never come to realise that if they shared just a little they would always get a few more years at the helm. To be honest, all these people could have used a few pep sessions with Singapore's elder statesman Lee Kuan Yew on how to properly stage manage democracy, or at least the semblances of it.

But, I digress.

The reality for most Egyptians, as it was for most Indonesians in 1998, is where to next? The King is dead, sort of. He will move, most probably out of Egypt and retire with his ill-gotten billions. Some will be returned as a small gesture. But, for those ordinary Egyptians struggling on, or below, the poverty line the cold, hard reality is that change or reform will be slow. If Egyptians want to get a good idea of what not to do, at least with respect to pace, then they should look to Indonesia. In the more than twelve years since Soeharto stepped aside after violent street protests and handing the reins of power to his deputy, much has changed and much has stayed the same.

The positives are that Indonesians enjoy greater freedoms of sorts, and except if you are an Ahmadi [minority rights, not!], including the freedoms of speech and expression. Indonesians have enjoyed an opening of the political process to a degree and experienced, by most accounts, a free and fair presidential election. Sadly, this has seen a succession of presidents elected who have been unable to deliver on the promise of the 1998 protest movement.

Gus Dur, despite his good and honourable intentions was a populist at heart who did not really have the heart to make the tough decisions. Megawati, well, "nuff" said. And, the incumbent, SBY. So much promise and so little progress. To Egypt, SBY shows how hard it is to remove entrenched special interests and how those interests continue to hold sway over how Indonesia's new-found democracy operates.

Unfortunately, the coming of democracy has  not seen a reduction in corruption levels or any significant improvement in the bureaucracy that channels that corruption. There is nothing like statistics to hide poverty or the careful manipulation of numbers to lower the threshold in order to hide those living on less than USD 2 per day. What Egypt has to look forward to is entrenched interests who pull their collective heads in in the after math of the killing of the king and biding their time.

For all the steps forward that Indonesia took in the post-1998 period with the establishment of a corruption eradication commission and the pursuit of those special interests it was only a matter of time before the special interests fought back. It appears a compliant [and complicit] president was the only trigger needed to convince those special interests that the ball was in their court.

Egypt does not want reform. Egypt needs complete and fundamental changes to the way the business of democracy is done. Ordinary Egyptians do not want to leave this important business to those schooled in the ways of the old master, Mubarak. Let Indonesians tell you how that turns out. The reality that Indonesians now understand is that letting those schooled in the ways of the previous master means that the practices remain entrenched and the mechanisms and skills required are absent for real change to occur. Skip a generation, the protests were led by the youth let the young leaders of the movement assume control over its ultimate destiny.

Maybe, there is a lesson for SBY in the protests that have rocked Egypt to its core. Listen to your people, listen to their aspirations, after all they are the ones that elected you and they are the ones that you work for. A presidency of unrealised promise might be just the right trigger for a renewed push to "reformasi -- part two".

I guess the reason reform works so slowly, or not at all, is that there is no clear separation from the past. Perhaps the French realised this and that is why the opted for a revolution.

Yes, it is a messy post. But, it is really just a rambling rant ;)

Image courtesy of Dave Granlund.

Police vs. Demonstrators -- Indonesian Style...

This rather disturbing image that came through on Facebook shows just how far Indonesia has come since 1998 under the stewardship of Habibie, Abdurrahman Wahid (Gus Dur), Megawati, and Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY). It would seem that the police way of repelling unruly demonstrators is to point guns at them.

I am not advocating that students or others have a right to violent protest. What I am wondering is whether pointing guns at them and shooting them is an appropriate or proportional response.

As to the image. I do not know of its authenticity or lack thereof. I pass comment only on that which I see in it.

KPK to PDI-P, Bugger Off!

Unfortunately, it would never happen! But, that is probably because I am not a member of the KPK. If it was me, then as soon as the PDI-P delegation turned up they would be turned away with a: "On ya bikes, and get the hell out of my office!" Closely followed with, "I am trying to do some serious work, you people down the DPR building in Senayan should consider trying it some day...work that is!"

Seriously, the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) names some PDI-P legislators, former and current, as suspects in a bribery case, and the PDI-P thinks that as a party it has a right to interrogate the KPK and demand some answers (and presumably a copy of the current case brief).

It would seem that the PDI-P beef with the KPK is why the KPK made a public announcement that named the PDI-P legislators as suspects. The rationale being that this is not all above board and that the KPK is being pressured, politically, to rush to judgment. This rationale is premised loosely on prevailing laws and regulations, at least the PDI-P interpretation of them, namely: that the receivers of bribes are secondary level suspects and the main suspects have to be those giving the bribe.

The best part of the PSI-P argument for not naming the former and current PDI-P legislators as suspects is that state officials who have received bribes but pay that money back cannot be guilty of a crime. I am sure that their will be plenty of Indonesians who find this truly offensive to their sense of right and wrong, and to the idea of justice. The whole idea that corruption is only corruption if you get caught, and then if you are caught you can absolve the original crime by paying back any monies or assets you received. Simply, if you are a state official what have you got to lose. You take the bribe, if you get caught you pay it back. If you do not get caught, then you just live it up with your new found wealth.

Too sad for words. It is no wonder that Megawati and the PDI-P have fared so badly in recent elections and lost the popularity of the "little people" or wong cilik that the party once so dominated.

Another classic PDI-P quotable moment was provided by Trimedya Panjaitan. Panjaitan suggested that the KPK was being politicised and that the KPK had only named the PDI-P lawmakers because the PDI-P was a successful opposition party, and the KPK was being used to undermine the PDI-P. He then goes on to suggest that the visit was not intended to interfere with the investigation of KPK's affairs. Uh huh! Whatever he is smoking, I need some of that!

PDI-P really needs to rethink its game if it is to walk the walk as an opposition party instead of doing a poor job on trying to talk the talk, and make that enough to sway voters to their party.

Ho hum...

Jupe -- Sexpot Politics...

Julia Perez, or Jupe as she is known to her loyal and devoted fans, is capitalising on her fame to make a run for public office. The jury is out on whether she would cut the mustard as a politician, but all sides seem to think that she has a shot of getting elected. I hope she does!

Having been on CNN recently and the focus of a story in the New York Times, Jupe now finds herself gracing the pages of the San Francisco Chronicle. The article is the same one that was in the NYT by the looks of it. But, when it is all said and done, it is still more than enough to open the door for some posting of some sexy Jupe pictures.

It might just be the breath of fresh air that Indonesian politics needs. It might also be a disaster! But, being the eternal optimist I am going to lean towards election and a more successful term than disastrous one. The down side is that she really does not have a broad enough knowledge of politics and public policy to be anything other than ineffective. However, I would argue, in her defense, that she has already exhibited some real knowledge of social issues that she has been more intimately involved with as part of her fame, or infamy, like HIV / AIDS and sex education of Indonesia's youth.

Most recently, Ms. Perez has been in the news giving the current president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, a serve about the consistent failures of the government with the gas conversion program. Of particular note, Ms. Perez took an opportunistic shot at SBY when a gas cylinder exploded in her home in Cibubur and injured her maid.

The criticisms as highlighted in The Jakarta Globe article show what many consider to be her weakness; no policy knowledge. It is easy to criticise and offer up no policy or legislative alternatives. Megawati, a former President, regular salon dweller, and largely irrelevant leader of the PDI-P (Indonesian Democratic Party for Struggle), is renowned for this campaign methodology of criticising without offering alternatives. It has not served her well as she has not reclaimed the presidency. As a long-term campaign strategy this will not serve Jupe well either.

The reality is that the prospect of Ms. Perez being elected to the local government of Pacitan is somewhat titillating, the Indonesian voting populace is far more knowledgeable on the issues that effect, and affect, them. Simply, Jupe needs to come up with some policies that show she has the political smarts to go with her sexpot image.

Viva Jupe!

Party Politics and Succession -- Indonesian Family Dynasties

The importance of family and politics in family is something that is firmly and deeply entrenched in Indonesian politics. The debate about whether political parties need to focus more on merit, particularly the promotion of individuals within a party to leadership positions based on their skills and abilities and not their family connections, has reignited with the suggestion that Ani Yudhoyono, the incumbent president's wife, is on the short list for a crack at the top job in 2014.

The truth of the matter is that a great number, not all, political parties are established as personal political vehicles in order to get the person establishing them elected to office. The parties then tend to become, in a very Javanese sort of a way, a personal fiefdom or kingdom run by the families of the person that established them. The family is normally supported by a loyal and trusted inner circle that knows its place and reaps the rewards of being close to the heart of political and economic power.

The commencement of an Ani Yudhoyono campaign at this stage is somewhat crass and way premature. The reality is that the incumbent president, and now president-elect for a second term, has not even been sworn in for his second term yet. This will not happen until late October. Interestingly, the Partai Demokrat (Democrat Party) has not been trying to kill the story, to the contrary the Deputy Head of the Partai Demokrat, Ahmad Mubarok, has offered Anas Urbaningrum as a more likely candidate. The president's spokesman and head of the Partai Demokrat Central Leadership Board, Andi Mallarangeng, has said it is too early to be thinking about these things as the First Lady had too many interests in her charity work and supporting the president to occupy her time at the moment.

However, it is not only the Partai Demokrat that is struggling with succession. The PDI-P, which is Megawati's family political vehicle is confronting a similar problem with succession and not success. The Indonesian Democratic Party for Struggle (PDI-P) is viewed by the relevant members of Megawati's clan as their party, and as such they should be allowed to run it or determine who is to run it.

The simple reality for PDI-P is that Megawati has failed three times at the polls to get herself elected president by the people. Megawati attained the presidency by default when she finally did fulfill what she sees as her birthright. Another simple reality is that there has not yet been anyone in the Soekarno clan besides Soekarno himself that has had the oratory skills to wind up the masses and capture the collective imagination. No matter what you think of Soekarno, there is little doubt that the man had people skills and charisma that has not passed down through his genes.

So, onto succession. Puan Maharani, Megawati's daughter, has gone on the record to say that she is the most likely and the best possible successor to her floundering, politically, mother. However, this is far from a done deal with Megawati's brother, Guruh, suggesting he is a better candidate than Puan. Megawati herself has also gone on the record to say that it is also not a done deal.

Presidential Election -- Indonesia

The "Quick Count" numbers are suggesting that the ticket of the incumbent president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, and his running mate, Boediono, are going to win the election outright. The current numbers suggest that a September 2009 run-off will not be necessary.

The Indonesian Survey Institute (Lembaga Survei Indonesia / LSI) has SBY / Boediono running at 60.25%. Megawati / Prabowo are trailing in a distant second on 27.44%, and the incumbent vice president, Kalla, and his running mate, Wiranto, are trailing in a very distant third with a mere 12.31% (as of 17.20 Indonesian West Time). The other survey agencies are indicating that they have similar numbers based on their respective polling.

The site "Indonesia Memilih", as produced by Kompas has lots of good coverage and continual Quick Count updates. It is in Indonesian, but the Quick Count numbers are easy enough to follow for those with an interest in this presidential election but limited or no Indonesian language skills.

In many ways I am glad that I did not have a right to vote in the Indonesian Presidential Election. There was not a pair of candidates that I could have voted for and then walked out of the polling booth feeling comfortable with what I had done. I would have had to go home and take a shower and hope that karma forgave me in the long run.

I am someone who believes that if you have a right to vote, and you can exercise that right to vote then you must do so. In the Indonesian case, where so many have sacrificed so much to gain this right, then there is an even greater obligation to exercise that right. There has in the modern era been a movement in Indonesia to exercise the democratic right not to vote. This movement is known as "golput" or golongan putih, the white group. The idea is that if one refuses to vote this is the best way of expressing one's displeasure at the lack of viable choices to choose between.

I would have voted, if I had the right to do so, and marked my ballot in such a way that it was invalid. I would have exercised my right to vote and would have expressed my inability to choose any of the candidates as they are all as poor as each other in terms of ability.

That's just me. And, no one else is me. To each their own. I respect other people's right to express their displeasure by exercising their democratic right not to vote. I would hope that in similar circumstances those people would also respect my right to vote in the way that I choose.

Someone has to win this thing, and with world renowned abusers of human rights on each of the other tickets, the process of elimination leaves the ticket of SBY / Boediono. Unfortunately, during his first five years in the job SBY has not shown himself to be particularly adept at resolving the critical issues facing Indonesia in the short, medium, and long terms.

Nevertheless, Viva Democracy!

Is Boediono a Neoliberal?

Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono or SBY as he is affectionately known by the masses has selected the now resigned Central Bank Governor and former Coordinating Minister of Economic Affairs, Boediono, as his running mate for the upcoming presidential elections (photo courtesy of Kompas). There has been mixed reaction to the selection not only from members of the coalition of parties that declared their support for SBY in the period after the general election, but there has been considerable criticism levelled at Boediono from all quarters about his supposed neoliberal attitudes.

The word, neoliberal, is being bandied about like it is some kind of poison chalice that has the potential to sink the SBY march towards a second term. This is fanciful thinking at best considering most polls have SBY running so far ahead of the other candidates that a run-off election is looking unnecessary. In fact some polls have SBY securing more than 70% of the vote if the presidential election was held today.

Even if some of the other parties gain a little bit of traction on this neoliberal point which is a catch word for being pro-capitalism, pro-markets, and anti-little people. It has to be noted that on each of the other two tickets you have men who have made fortunes exploiting the little people and being actively involved in the free markets and the capitalist ideal. Jusuf Kalla is going to get no traction from this.

Megawati and Prabowo are also not going to gain much from running a neoliberal argument. Prabowo is, according to the recently submitted wealth reports, the wealthiest of them all. This is funny in that perverse kind of a way considering that Prabowo's whole campaign has been based on his ability to empathize with the little people, the farmers, the small scale traders, the poor. How does a man with IDR 1.7 trillion in assets and cash empathize with the daily grind that is the life of a sharecropper in the rural areas of Indonesia? When was the last time Prabowo lived from harvest to harvest in a period of sustained drought?

So, what is neoliberalism anyway. You can find an interesting article on it here. Nevertheless, most tend to agree that neoliberalism contains the following key elements: free markets, slashing public expenditure, deregulation, privatization, and replacing the idea of community with individual responsibility.

Now, the case for Boediono being a neoliberal is that he is beholden to the free market and as such a sell-out to foreign interests and must even be considered as a traitor to his own people. Somewhat extreme, but this is Indonesian politics in action, some might argue democracy in action. Boediono has pointed out in response to this criticism that he was chosen by SBY an Indonesian, and if he was beholden to foreign interests then SBY would never have selected him to be VP. This is hardly a convincing or strong argument against being neoliberal.

The better response he has made to these charges are that there is, in any economy, a need to participate in the free market. However, this is to be moderated with effective state intervention to ensure that the interests of the state and in essence the interest of the little people are protected. To this end Boediono oversaw a number of programs that were definitely pro-poor such as the Direct Cash Assistance (Bantuan Langsung Tunai / BLT) program.

However, his critics quickly point out that it has been under Boediono's watch that some 40 State-Owned Enterprises (Badan Usaha Milik Negara / BUMN) have been vetted for privatization. I am not for privatization for privatization's sake, but sometimes a poorly performing state-owned enterprise can benefit from the escape from government bureaucracy. The government can set strict rules to ensure that the assets are not completely lost or that the privatization must take into account particular interests.

In this sense, Boediono is more an economic realist. He realizes that there is some benefit to be enjoyed from the better economic management of government interests and exposure to the free market might provide greater benefits than the oft claimed negatives.

In any event, the claims have seen a heated little battle between Boediono and Kalla emerge to the fore. Kalla claiming that Boediono's neoliberal ways will see the collapse of the Indonesian economy and all Indonesians being destined to become migrant workers in their own country (awesome visualization if you can get your head around it as most Indonesians are familiar with the trauma that most Indonesian migrant workers suffer at the hands of unscrupulous foreign employers). For Boediono, his dig was that a vote for Kalla is a vote for a family firm that is destined to employ all means of state to developing and supporting the family business.

I am always keen for a little bit of to and fro during an election cycle.

The outcome here is that the SBY ticket is likely to offer up a mixed bag on the economy. Specifically, there are likely to be elements of the free market (with the emphasis being on fair trade rather than free trade) and perhaps explicit protections from an over-deregulation or privatization of natural resources, particularly those in the mining, oil and gas, and forestry sectors.

Is Boediono a neoliberal?

Not 100% neoliberal.

Gus Dur Supporting Prabowo for President

Speechless!

Well, almost...but good readers I am sure you are already aware that it will take more than this foolhardiness to stump me for words.

This support apparently comes with strings attached. There is a sizable push for Yenny Wahid (aka Zannuba Ariffah Chafsoh Rahman Wahid) to be placed on the Prabowo ticket as the Vice President.

For me this support makes Gus Dur (Abdurrahman Wahid) increasingly irrelevant on the Indonesian political stage. I am also surprised that Yenny Wahid is going for this. Yet, in the big scheme of things this foolhardiness is not all that surprising. Gus Dur is a bitter man and still feels that the PKB, which was his political vehicle, was wrenched from his control by traitorous enemies and the complicity of the government. He is likely to do anything to redress this wrong, even supporting Prabowo.

Prabowo Subianto and his political vehicle might indeed have some similarities to Gus Dur and those that support him. However, the reality is that Prabowo's skeletons are real and they are nasty. The man may have been honorably discharged from the army, but there are remaining questions as to whether this was deserved. There are still unanswered questions as to his imvolvement in the Rose Group and his responsibility in the kidnapping and disappearing of activists in 1998.

The interesting thing about Gerindra is that the party has adopted some real socialist ideas in trying to garner support from farmers and blue collar workers under the guise of Pancasila. Pancasila has always been viewed as an avid tool to be trotted out in the fight against communism and socialism. Although, it is easy to argue that the social justice elements of Pancasila in fact lend themselves to a socialist democratic platform. There is certain irony in the support of Prabowo and Gus Dur for these ideals.

In any event, even Gus Dur's support is not going to be enough for Prabowo to be relevant in the coming presidential contest. This is at best a three-way horse race at the front with SBY, Kalla, and Megawati, with SBY being slightly in front as the incumbent. The dark horse will be PKS and whoever it is that they nominate.

Hopefully, after this little charade Prabowo and Wiranto can be prosecuted for their alleged crimes and then fade into history.

Yes, a dream, but without dreams there is no point in living.

A Musing or A Ramble or a Bit of Both?

This year is an election year in Indonesia. That in and of itself will either excite people or bore the hell out of them. However, this little rambling musing is about change politics and the "yes, we can" philosophy seen recently in the US.

The Indonesian press and blogosphere has generally been pro-Obama and holds out high hopes that the new president of the US of A will be pro-Indonesia based on 4 or so years the man spent here as a child. The most recent warm and fuzzy moments relate to a You tube video doing the rounds showing the US president showing off his Indonesian language skills.

There are a couple of points to be made here. First, politics is always bigger than the person. Obama as president might be able to influence policy to some degree towards Indonesia, but the question is why do Indonesians think that this is such a positive? There was nothing in the campaign that he ran that would suggest that he is focusing on policy development related to Indonesia and nothing to say that this is going to be in Indonesia's benefit. Second, the love affair that Indonesians seem to have with the new US president highlights an extreme lack of hope in their own Indonesian politicians and the future of Indonesia.

Let's face it, when push comes to shove there are two possibilities being touted for Indonesia and depending on the day, it is either Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) or Megawati Soekarnoputri as the shoe-ins for the presidency of Indonesia. Why is this interesting? It is interesting because when it is all said and done this is politics as usual in Indonesia and not the change politics that the Indonesian media seem to have fallen for with Obama. It is also interesting because if the media really believed in change politics then the media would be excellent facilitators of promoting that change.

On Megawati, it must not be forgotten that Indonesia's most recent political assassination took place on her watch. The assassination of Munir has yet to see the "real" perpetrators of this crime identified, prosecuted, or jailed for their crimes. This is hardly an advertisement for a second crack at the big chair! It is also worth noting that Munir was particularly critical of SBY as being a military man with no commitment to investigating abuses of human rights, particularly in Aceh.

SBY has gone on the record as saying the investigation and prosecution is a test of his government's commitment to human rights and pursing justice for victims of abuses. He and his government have clearly failed this test.

The Indonesian political style of money dictating outcomes is rising its ugly head again, albeit in the form of crass public policy. The reduction of fuel prices is nothing but an attempt to draw votes by buying into the wallets of constituents and trying to avert attention aways from a poor record as president by SBY. Poor, is subjective but when you get elected with a change mandate like SBY, and then fail to deliver, it is fair that questions be asked of and on that record.

The most likely outcome is going to be people exercising their democratic right not to vote. This is known locally as Golput (golongan putih or the white group). I am anti-golput for many reasons, but most prevalent among these is that it is an affront to those who have laid down their lives to ensure that Indonesians achieved a "real" right to vote. It is a sad state of affairs that if among the 1000's of candidates that can be elected there is not one that represents your ideals, beliefs, hopes, and aspirations.

The idea that SBY or Megawati or someone else can reach the pinnacle of political power with a minority of voters electing them is sad. I accept that this is a feature of a non-compulsory voting system and even the grand old democracy known as the USA does not demand that its citizens vote if they do not want to. Yet, that is hardly the point.

Personally, I would vote and choose that minority candidate even if I was sure that they would not be elected. It is important that they know that they have support. Vote for the alternative candidate. It is also an equally effective way of showing the powers that be and those that do get elected that there are plenty of people out there who did not vote for them and place their faith in others.

I am the eternal optimist when it comes to all things Indonesian, and this is no different when it comes to matters of general and presidential elections.

Thus endeth this rambling musing.

A Sad State of Affairs

This is one of those issues where some will agree and some will disagree and some will just want to ask what the alternatives are. The reality is that this is a sad state of affairs. I am still planning on writing a series on all of the potential presidential candidates listed here. I have started with Megawati and been a little slack on following this up. I still have time on my side though.

A recent survey of 1,239 people (I have always wondered why survey organizations could not make it a round number, like 1,250 for example) by the Indonesian Survey Institute (Lembaga Survei Indonesia / LSI) has found that the current president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) has re-emerged as the most likely to be elected president in the upcoming presidential election. SBY has managed to turn around his previous poor showing that saw him slip behind a former president in Megawati.

The race is shaping into a two-horse race between SBY and Megawati. SBY is currently seein his support running at 32% and Megawati trailing with 24%. The rest of the potential presidential candidates seem to be in the "no-hope(r)" category. Following Megawati in the distance is Wiranto with 6% and Prabowo with 5%.

Wiranto and Prabowo both have skeletons in the closet that should preclude them from serious consideration. These skeltons exist as part of their respective army careers and relate to what they knew and when with respect to Timor Leste in Wiranto's case and the disappearance of activists in Prabowo's case. If these issues were satisfactorily resolved then so be it.

I am sure that some might argue this is irrelevant as they have never been charged so this is therefore a non-issue. To each their own. If I could vote, I would not be voting for either. I also would not be voting for SBY or Megawati.

Following Prabowo is the Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono X on 3%. The rest of the potential candidates are running at less than 3% so their chances at this stage would seem to be somewhere between zero and none.

Why is this a sad state of affairs? This is a sad state of affairs because the two most likely candidates for president at this time are a currently failing president and the immediate past president who also failed.

I am sure that with the quaity on offer there is likely to be a big push for and from the "Golput" supporters. Golput is the abbreviation of Golongan Putih or White Group who advocate that where all of the choices are poor quality then voters should exercise their right not to vote.

A sad state of affairs.

Megawati & Australia

Keeping to the Megawati theme.

Megawati -- The Cult of Personality

The heading to this post is probably a bit of a misnomer as Megawati lacks the charisma and personality of her illustrious father and the first president of Indonesia, Soekarno. The fact that this former president who failed in her first crack at the top job is still being seriously considered for another go on the merry-go-round says something about the state of Indonesian politics. That something is sad. The fact that this series is dealing with old political names is indicative of the lack of a platform that up-and-coming politicians have been able to carve out for themselves.

Back to Megawati. Megawati's base is the Democratic Party of Indonesia for Struggle or the PDI-P. The PDI-P symbol is a bull with a white nose and the colour of the party is blood red. The bull with the white nose, I am guessing, is supposed to symbolize strength and purity. For others though it is probably not a bull at all but rather a cow with a powdered nose after regular trips to the salon. Then again it might indeed be a bull and is supposed to indicate that the party is devoid of a coherent policy platform and in is in other words full of crap, bull crap!

My friend the treespotter ranks the symbol on its cool factor. This might be my next post after this presidential series, ranking all the party symbols based on their cool factor. Besides, we should not under-estimate the cool factor because the Indonesian way of voting is to take a nail and stab it through the face of the candidate or their party symbol. So, perhaps the more cool the better the chance of getting stabbed in the face.

The PDI-P formed as a spin-off from the old PDI and eclipsed its predecessor immediately for appeal to the masses. The spin-off occurred when Soeharto in his infinite wisdom through the deployment of his cronies and other sycophant brown-nosers decided to teach little old Mega a lesson in knowing your place in the political spectrum. Some of these brown-nosers include a recently retired Governor with a vision of higher political office.

Unfortunately, the blood-letting that ensued and the disappearances of young activists at the hands of the authorities only served to make Mega and her band of followers look like martyrs in the defense of the little people. One day even dictators will learn that they need to employ good public relations people to spin their stupidity when that inevitable time comes.

Megawati has taken the 27 July attack and used it to her advantage to get a crack at the presidency of Indonesia as its fourth president. Using the attack to her political advantage was a wise move and it was an important part of a series of events that would ultimately lead to the downfall of an entrenched dictator.

However, much of what was gained in these tumultuous events was squandered by Megawati and her party to the detriment of any legacy she might have been able to create. The PDI-P is a party of the little people or the wong cilik. It is also the party in many ways of the marhaen. The marhaen movement is one that brings in the rural vote, those farmers (many share-croppers) doing it tough in the regions and looking for a political party that would support their struggle. This party has always been the party that has carried on the Soekarno legacy. Who better than the daughter, Megawati, and her party the PDI-P?

The PDI-P is dominated as much by Soekarno as it is by his daughter. A brief trip around Jakarta, or throughout the archipelago for that matter, will open your eyes to the method that the PDI-P employs to capitalize on the first president of Indonesia. Just about all advertising for the party includes Soekarno's mugshot. Sometimes even more prominently than that of the current party chairwoman.

The PDI-P is a party that relies on the cult of personality to remain relevant. The biggest asset they seem to have is that Megawati is the daughter of Soekarno and therefore a vote for the daughter is a vote for the father. It is just to bad that the old fella has been dead for so long.

What is truly amazing is that the PDI-P can continue to pull this off.

Megawati believes that the presidency is her birthright and as such this is probably more the motivation for continuing to toss her hat in the electoral ring than the desire to truly help the little people. The party platform is a nationalist one with underpinnings of Soekarno style Marxism (more socialist than anything else and not all that sinister). Unfortunately, Mega just does not have the oratory skills of her father or the charisma to truly pull off a good inspiring speech. It does not help that to all intents and purposes Megawati never has really been part of the wong cilik nor has she been a marhaen. Simply road trips to the slums of Jakarta and the share croppers elsewhere does not provide the insights she needs to make an impassioned plea, the plea necessary to rally the masses to her cause.

The PDI-P could be a party of much more. However, it really does need to regenerate in terms of getting more young people involved and getting them into positions of authority. It is time Megawati took a back seat role along with some of her trusted lieutenants in order that the new generation can take on a greater role and drive real change and reform. My guess is that if this does not happen soon then many of the major parties, and not just the PDI-P, will see their primary vote erode and be dispersed among the myriad of minor parties contesting the 2009 elections.

The PDI-P and Megawti will have had five years in the period to 2009 where they could have carved out a niche for themselves. However, this has not been done, in essence it is an opportunity lost in terms of redefining the party. Megawati and her lieutenants like to claim they have been effective in opposition. Unfortunately, the Indonesian government does not lend itself to the Westminster system of government where there is a clearly defined opposition.

The PDI-P if they have been opp anything have been opportunistic in not missing an opportunity to snipe at the current government. But is must be noted that sniping at the government without offering concrete alternative policy is hardly being an alternative government in opposition.

The reasons not to vote for Megawati far outweigh the reasons to vote for Megawati. Her first jaunt in the big chair was a failure. There has been nothing in the five years interim to this that would even remotely suggest a second time round in the big chair would turn out any differently to the first.

I bet there are plenty of Indonesians that are glad I am not one of them and get a vote in this coming election.

Megawati and Young Leaders

Megawati has used the commemoration of the birth of Pancasila to call on young Indonesians to rise up as leaders and stake their claims to positions of political importance and power. Megawati has secured the nomination of the PDI-P even at this early stage. Therefore, the question is whether or not this is an indication that her running mate will be some one considerably younger?

It is not a matter of there being no young leaders but rather the young leaders wanting to become involved at the highest levels and then it is a matter of entrenched political interests cultivating the development of leaders or young leaders forcing the entrenched interests aside. I would go for the second option as this way the young leaders would start with a much cleaner slate.

I also wonder whether this is an indication that the PDI-P is going to allocate a proportion of slots on the various regional tickets to younger leaders. Once again with Megawati, the rhetoric is good but it is the reality that is lagging. It is one thing to call young leaders out but it is completely different scenario to provide these same young leaders with the room to gain the experience. The proof of the pudding is not in the baking but in the eating. Until these young leaders get to sit and eat the table then this is nothing more than sweet talk and lip service to the masses.

Maybe the PDI-P and Megawati can give substance to the Pancasila and restore this State ideology as a means of achieving the ideals that are contained within it!

Time will tell! (photo courtesy of Ricky Yudhistira / JP)

Megawati and the Little People

The fact that Megawati is still somewhat of a political force in Indonesian is testament to the cult of politics in Indonesia. I was going to work the other day and passed this huge banner promoting Megawati and her party, the Indonesian Democratic Party for Struggle. What was interesting about this banner was the size of the figure of her father, Soekarno. Soekarno has been dead since 1970 but it seems that even after all of these years Megawati's political legitimacy is intricately tied to that of her father.

Is she a legitimate contender for the 2009 Presidential elections, possibly. What is scary about this is she has had a crack at the Presidency before and it was not a particularly successful tilt and getting Indonesia back on track to prosperity. Nevertheless, in the period since her departure in 2004 she has been a sporadic critic of the current regime. This is likely to change in the lead up to the General and Presidential elections in 2009.

Most recently Megawati has been voicing her criticisms of the 'direct cash assistance' or 'bantuan langsung tunai' being provided to the poor of Indonesia who are most affected by the recent jacking up of fuel prices. Her main criticism is that the government is creating a culture of handouts and poor people willing to do nothing but line up for these handouts.

A valid criticism on face value. However, what it the Megawati plan to alleviate the suffering? The plan seems to be provide prosperity, better education, world peace, security, social justice, and the returning of pride to the peoples of Indonesia. This all sounds great, but where are the policies? How are these great aims costed? Can they be realized?

Hopefully, this election cycle the public will not be lulled into this idea of security through promises that are never realized. The little people need serious help through serious policies that provide proper long-term solutions. Supporters and potential supporters of Megawati must realize that a vote for Megawati is not a vote for Soekarno. She might be her father's daughter but she is certainly not her father!

Election Laws - President

The packet of election laws is slowly but surely navigating its way through the parliamentary system. The most recent of these is the draft law on the Election of a President. This is a law that has significant and long-term ramifications for Indonesian politics. The current thinking sees a return to the party politics of the past which is counter to the intent in the post-Soeharto period of making the post of President one that was elected directly by the people.

The current law requires that candidates have the support of at least 15% of the parties elected to parliament. This in theory gives the smaller parties more clout in nominating a candidate that might have broad public appeal. This is how it worked for the Democratic Party in 2004 and particularly for their candidate, the current President, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY). The Democratic party secured about 10% of the popular vote but after forming an alliance with other parties got of the nominating threshold.

The proposal is that the threshold be raised to 30%. No one party secured 30% of the popular vote in 2004. The closest was Golkar with 28% and PDI-P with almost 23% followed Golkar. It would seem that increasing the threshold would most benefit these parties because the smaller parties would have to align themselves with the bigger parties if they wanted to get a say in the nominating process. However, if a smaller party came up with a candidate that had widespread name recognition and a high-level of electability then perhaps the larger parties might throw their support behind the smaller party. In this sense, Indonesia already has a history of doing this as SBY was nominated by the Democratic Party and was supported by Golkar who then put Jusuf Kalla on the ticket.

Yet, more critical to the debate here is that the new thresholds seem designed to keep the smaller parties at bay and institutionalize the Presidential nominating process in such a way that new and younger candidates who are not affiliated with a 'big' political party will never see the light of day.

Many people wonder why Indonesia is taking so long to reform on the legal, political, and social fronts after Soeharto fell from power but a quick look at the entrenched interests involved in stalling the reform process reads as a who's who of the New Order's school of politics. A reading of the list of past Indonesian presidents highlights that all of Indonesia's presidents since the fall of Soeharto have cut their political teeth under a regime that was rotten to the core.

So, I am not surprised that the parties of the past and seeking to return electoral laws to the past in a somewhat draconian measure to remove potential political opposition.

The mantra that change takes time is beginning to wear thin and it will not be too far into the future that Indonesian citizens will demand more radical change, at least radical in terms of the amount of time they are prepared to wait to see this change happen.

It would seem that if Golkar and PDI-P manage to insert this 30% clause into the draft and then force it through the DPR that the biggest beneficiaries of this will be Jusuf Kalla and Megawati Soekarnoputri...

Clinton vs. Obama

Is the race for the Democratic nomination for the White House really that important? Sure, the race will be one of firsts all round; the first African-American, the first Woman, and maybe even the first POW...an interesting race for sure but is it important?

From the perspective and the belief that the President of the United States of America occupies the seat of the most powerful person in the world, then it is a clear cut answer that the race for the White House is important. Nevertheless, the dynamics of world superpowerdom is changing and it might not be so far into the distant future that the US shares its superpower status with others again. Then the hot seat that is the Presidency of the US might not be the most powerful any longer.

Yet, the reality is that it is still a powerful post. So, with Obama in the ascendancy and the Clinton campaign in seeming free-fall, what are we likely to see when we look into that little crystal ball?

There are stark differences and equally stark similarities between the two Democrats. Both talk change and Obama at least in the sense of his rhetoric talks a better fight. But he is green in the sense of being new to national or federal politics as it is in the US and the real question voters must ask themselves is whether they believe he can now walk the talk! Clinton on the other hand is a polarizing figure at the best of times and it is this love hate relationship that is most likely to be her undoing (assuming she gets undone). She is a political insider and as such is likely to be able to effect more immediate and last change if she was committed to doing so. She knows the rules of the game and is the better day one player. Yet, having only been exposed to the Washington establishment for a short time as a Senator, then maybe not knowing these rules are to Obama's advantage.

Obama is being touted as the new Jack Kennedy which is an interesting comparison because Jack Kennedy's success depended not solely on his apparent charisma, charms, and relatively good looks compared to a somewhat dour opponent and obvious political insider. Yet, Kennedy's victory is testament as much to a savvy PR machine and considerable financial resources and some might argue special interests. Jack Kennedy was a realist he left much of the idealism to his brother, RFK. The question on this front is in his assassination shortened tenure as President of the US did he really make the changes that is inauguration speech is so often remembered for highlighting?

Being labeled as the next Jack Kennedy would seem to be a label and burden I would want to do without. Sort of takes away from you being your own man. Sort of like Megawati always failing to live up to the expectations of those who want her to be the political reincarnation of her father, the charismatic, charming, ladies-man that was Indonesia's first President, Soekarno! Now moving to the Indonesian connection.

The Indonesian connection. Obama's mother was married to an Indonesian and Obama spent some of his childhood in the Menteng area of Central Jakarta. But Indonesia should not expect any special favours from Obama if he manages to pull off his quest to become the first African-American President. Indonesia has not come up in any of his stump speeches and only has been referenced in passing in more wide-ranging foreign policy speeches. At best Indonesia should only expect to garner about as much attention as it does now. Sure, the candidates have set out some general foreign policies and what is striking is that even with Obama's obvious connections to Indonesia there does not seem to be any significant importance placed on Indonesia in comparison to what Clinton has said...

Obama might be hailed as an honorary Indonesian and given the keys to the country in honour of being the first African American Step-Son of an Indonesian to become President but this might not be enough to gain Indonesia any special access or favours.

A fascinating race to be sure...Those Indonesian's interested in the outcome I am sure will remain glued to their news sources and following the race closely and for the rest of us, whatever!