Presidential Election -- Indonesia

The "Quick Count" numbers are suggesting that the ticket of the incumbent president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, and his running mate, Boediono, are going to win the election outright. The current numbers suggest that a September 2009 run-off will not be necessary.

The Indonesian Survey Institute (Lembaga Survei Indonesia / LSI) has SBY / Boediono running at 60.25%. Megawati / Prabowo are trailing in a distant second on 27.44%, and the incumbent vice president, Kalla, and his running mate, Wiranto, are trailing in a very distant third with a mere 12.31% (as of 17.20 Indonesian West Time). The other survey agencies are indicating that they have similar numbers based on their respective polling.

The site "Indonesia Memilih", as produced by Kompas has lots of good coverage and continual Quick Count updates. It is in Indonesian, but the Quick Count numbers are easy enough to follow for those with an interest in this presidential election but limited or no Indonesian language skills.

In many ways I am glad that I did not have a right to vote in the Indonesian Presidential Election. There was not a pair of candidates that I could have voted for and then walked out of the polling booth feeling comfortable with what I had done. I would have had to go home and take a shower and hope that karma forgave me in the long run.

I am someone who believes that if you have a right to vote, and you can exercise that right to vote then you must do so. In the Indonesian case, where so many have sacrificed so much to gain this right, then there is an even greater obligation to exercise that right. There has in the modern era been a movement in Indonesia to exercise the democratic right not to vote. This movement is known as "golput" or golongan putih, the white group. The idea is that if one refuses to vote this is the best way of expressing one's displeasure at the lack of viable choices to choose between.

I would have voted, if I had the right to do so, and marked my ballot in such a way that it was invalid. I would have exercised my right to vote and would have expressed my inability to choose any of the candidates as they are all as poor as each other in terms of ability.

That's just me. And, no one else is me. To each their own. I respect other people's right to express their displeasure by exercising their democratic right not to vote. I would hope that in similar circumstances those people would also respect my right to vote in the way that I choose.

Someone has to win this thing, and with world renowned abusers of human rights on each of the other tickets, the process of elimination leaves the ticket of SBY / Boediono. Unfortunately, during his first five years in the job SBY has not shown himself to be particularly adept at resolving the critical issues facing Indonesia in the short, medium, and long terms.

Nevertheless, Viva Democracy!

Is Boediono a Neoliberal?

Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono or SBY as he is affectionately known by the masses has selected the now resigned Central Bank Governor and former Coordinating Minister of Economic Affairs, Boediono, as his running mate for the upcoming presidential elections (photo courtesy of Kompas). There has been mixed reaction to the selection not only from members of the coalition of parties that declared their support for SBY in the period after the general election, but there has been considerable criticism levelled at Boediono from all quarters about his supposed neoliberal attitudes.

The word, neoliberal, is being bandied about like it is some kind of poison chalice that has the potential to sink the SBY march towards a second term. This is fanciful thinking at best considering most polls have SBY running so far ahead of the other candidates that a run-off election is looking unnecessary. In fact some polls have SBY securing more than 70% of the vote if the presidential election was held today.

Even if some of the other parties gain a little bit of traction on this neoliberal point which is a catch word for being pro-capitalism, pro-markets, and anti-little people. It has to be noted that on each of the other two tickets you have men who have made fortunes exploiting the little people and being actively involved in the free markets and the capitalist ideal. Jusuf Kalla is going to get no traction from this.

Megawati and Prabowo are also not going to gain much from running a neoliberal argument. Prabowo is, according to the recently submitted wealth reports, the wealthiest of them all. This is funny in that perverse kind of a way considering that Prabowo's whole campaign has been based on his ability to empathize with the little people, the farmers, the small scale traders, the poor. How does a man with IDR 1.7 trillion in assets and cash empathize with the daily grind that is the life of a sharecropper in the rural areas of Indonesia? When was the last time Prabowo lived from harvest to harvest in a period of sustained drought?

So, what is neoliberalism anyway. You can find an interesting article on it here. Nevertheless, most tend to agree that neoliberalism contains the following key elements: free markets, slashing public expenditure, deregulation, privatization, and replacing the idea of community with individual responsibility.

Now, the case for Boediono being a neoliberal is that he is beholden to the free market and as such a sell-out to foreign interests and must even be considered as a traitor to his own people. Somewhat extreme, but this is Indonesian politics in action, some might argue democracy in action. Boediono has pointed out in response to this criticism that he was chosen by SBY an Indonesian, and if he was beholden to foreign interests then SBY would never have selected him to be VP. This is hardly a convincing or strong argument against being neoliberal.

The better response he has made to these charges are that there is, in any economy, a need to participate in the free market. However, this is to be moderated with effective state intervention to ensure that the interests of the state and in essence the interest of the little people are protected. To this end Boediono oversaw a number of programs that were definitely pro-poor such as the Direct Cash Assistance (Bantuan Langsung Tunai / BLT) program.

However, his critics quickly point out that it has been under Boediono's watch that some 40 State-Owned Enterprises (Badan Usaha Milik Negara / BUMN) have been vetted for privatization. I am not for privatization for privatization's sake, but sometimes a poorly performing state-owned enterprise can benefit from the escape from government bureaucracy. The government can set strict rules to ensure that the assets are not completely lost or that the privatization must take into account particular interests.

In this sense, Boediono is more an economic realist. He realizes that there is some benefit to be enjoyed from the better economic management of government interests and exposure to the free market might provide greater benefits than the oft claimed negatives.

In any event, the claims have seen a heated little battle between Boediono and Kalla emerge to the fore. Kalla claiming that Boediono's neoliberal ways will see the collapse of the Indonesian economy and all Indonesians being destined to become migrant workers in their own country (awesome visualization if you can get your head around it as most Indonesians are familiar with the trauma that most Indonesian migrant workers suffer at the hands of unscrupulous foreign employers). For Boediono, his dig was that a vote for Kalla is a vote for a family firm that is destined to employ all means of state to developing and supporting the family business.

I am always keen for a little bit of to and fro during an election cycle.

The outcome here is that the SBY ticket is likely to offer up a mixed bag on the economy. Specifically, there are likely to be elements of the free market (with the emphasis being on fair trade rather than free trade) and perhaps explicit protections from an over-deregulation or privatization of natural resources, particularly those in the mining, oil and gas, and forestry sectors.

Is Boediono a neoliberal?

Not 100% neoliberal.

The Indonesian Economy in 2011 -- 8% Growth

The fun and games have begun in terms of promising the world. Jusuf Kalla (photo courtesy of Viva News and showing the current Vice President's plan for balancing the budget) has promised the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin) that if he is elected president in the upcoming presidential elections that his government will deliver economic growth of 8% per year starting in 2011.

However, what is more interesting is the probable means that are to be employed in funding this proposed growth. According to Kalla 8% growth can be achieved because his government would be decreasing state spending (read slash already limited public spending) slashing public spending is most likely to impact most heavily on the poor and those less able to absorb any cuts to public spending.

The second part of the plan is a progressive tax system. It is unclear whether the intent here is to broaden the tax base or ramp up the amount of tax paid by higher income earners or simply better collection practices through enhanced enforcement of the current code. Nevertheless, it is unclear how investors or both domestic and foreign origins will feel about bearing a greater tax burden.

The next plank of the 8% growth platform is a decrease in fuel subsidies. Now, this is always a winning policy amongst the masses, not! However, it seems that Kalla believes that the conversion program from kerosene to gas has worked and that any reduction in fuel subsidies is unlikely to draw the negative public reaction that it has in the past. My guess would be that he might need to think again on this one. That is not to say I am not against the idea of a continual reduction in fuel subsidies, but rather going into a presidential election with this as part of one's election platform is risky at best and silly at worst.

The rest of the measures appear to be linked ot administrative and bureaucratic reforms. The idea of reforming the administration and the bureaucracy is a standard policy platform adopted by just about everyone. However, in the more than 10 years of reformasi to date, it is arguable how much the regimes of Habibe, Gus Dur, Megawati, and Yudhoyono have delivered on reform of the administration and bureaucracy platform. Personal experience on this front would suggest very little at the lower levels of the chain.

I guess if you are inclined to believe Kalla and his arguments for 8% growth then you should vote for him and then if enough people are convinced of his claims then you can wait and see until 2011 and see if he delivers.

My guess is though that people will still choose the incumbent president and his new vice-presidential candidate. SBY needs to hope that not everyone who supports him thinks he is a shoe-in and actually get out to vote. Don't you just love a potential upset?