SBY Taking Credit For Hosni Mubarak's Resignation?

Perhaps it is the cynic in me, but how desperate is SBY and the Democrat Party? Marzuki Alie of the Democrat Party, and Head of the House of Representatives, has stated unequivocally that SBY sent a personal letter to Mubarak suggesting that he step aside. The letter was delivered by hand by Special Envoy Hassan Wirajuda.

Apparently, the substance of the letter went along the lines of "Hey Hosni, better take on the Indonesian example and step aside and let the hand-picked Veep take over." "And, it is time to start stashing those billions in hard to find places so as to live your life out in peace and comfort. Take our boy Soeharto, we protected him all the way to his grave." "Final point mate, the sooner you do this stepping aside thing, the sooner I can start doing the rounds and claiming credit for myself as the instigator of your smooth resignation and the movement of Egypt to greater democracy". "Peace Out! Your main man in Indonesia, SBY! Salam!"

Funnily enough, SBY also suggested that Egypt establish an independent election authority to administer free and fair elections. I would be guessing though that Mubarak and his cronies, including his family, would not be giving the proverbial "rat's" about what happens after they squirrel away their billions and bugger off to Monaco or wherever.

But, the biggest chuckle was reserved for the statement that these initiatives at brokering Egyptian peace are enshrined in the 1945 Constitution, and as such Indonesia, and SBY, has an obligation to participate. This maybe so, but the reality Mr. President and Mr. Alie is that Indonesia has some serious constitutional problems at home. For example, the increasing persecution of religious minorities and a president that continually fails to fulfill the mandate granted to him twice. Maybe cleaning up one's own backyard may in fact be more beneficial to a greater majority of Indonesians than claiming credit for cleaning up Egypt's backyard.

I would reckon that the Egyptians got this far without SBY, then they are probably more than capable of going the distance on this one by themselves. In any event, what Mr. Alie and others fail to realise is that 1998 Jakarta and 2011 Cairo are two very different sets of circumstances. Perhaps, it should be Mubarak sending a personal letter to SBY about how to manage his own departure from Indonesian politics!

The idea that Indonesia has transited to democracy is a little premature. Let's face it money politics and corruption are still prevalent. Even more concerning is that the Ministry for Home Affairs is leading the way, with the agreement of a democratically elected president, in winding back the opportunities for Indonesians to elect their leaders at a local level in favour of having those leaders appointed by others.

The whole idea that SBY had any significant role in resolving events in Egypt reeks of desperation, it reeks of a president trying to map out a future tilt at some role on the international stage as a statesman of some repute.  To make it on the big stage might require some success on the domestic stage, and those successes are few and far between, and of late have been non-existent.

Mr. President, rather than getting your point men to claim success on your behalf in Egypt why don't you focus on securing minority rights for Indonesians at home? Why don't you focus on ensuring that those facilitating corruption are punished? Why don't you focus on ensuring that the people of Sidoarjo get fair and full compensation for their losses? The list probably can go on and on and on, but you get the point. Because if you don't then maybe the next letter you receive will be a letter of condolence from Hosni Mubarak commiserating on your unfortunate removal from office with more than half of your second term to go!

Happy Sunday to y'all!

Ahmadiyah As A New Religion?

Can it really all be that simple?

Can it really be as simple as the Ahmadis standing up and saying, "OK, we are a new religion", and "please leave us alone"?

If you were prepared to accept the word of Priyo Budi Santoso, the Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives and member of Golkar, then it is. It would seem that the Democrat Party of SBY is also suggesting that the establishment of a new religion will resolve the violence, the murder, and the mayhem. Well, at least, this is what Imran Muchtar is saying.

However, if the recent attacks on churches in Temanggung is anything to go by, then declaring a new religion is hardly going to be a cure for the violence being perpetrated against the Ahmadis. If mobs can go on the rampage and burn churches because a Christian man does not get the death sentence for blaspheming Islam, then this clearly does not bode well for the Ahmadis.

The Ahmadis are a sect of Islam. Perhaps not a sect that is accepted as being mainstream, but a sect all the same. If they were to branch off and call themselves a new religion this hardly resolves the issue. The core beliefs of the Ahmad remain Islamic in nature. The reality is that even if the Ahmadis were to spin themselves off from mainstream Islam, they remain Islamic in nature. For example, when King Henry VIII decided that the Catholic Church was becoming less agreeable and accepting of his needs, he decided to create a spin-off of the Roman Catholic Church and call it the Church of England.

Now, the Church of England is Christian in its orientation and beliefs. There are a few Virgin Mary issues as I understand it, but to all intents and purposes it is a Christian belief system, a Christian church. So, it does not really matter whether you are Catholic, Roman Catholic, Anglican, Presbyterian, Church of England, Protestant, Mormon or Quaker there is an argument to be made that these are all sects of the Christian faith. It would also seem reasonable to me that even if the Ahmadis were to separate from mainstream Islam and declare themselves a new religion that they would remain in a technical sense a sect of Islam.

The answer to the Ahmadi issue is for Indonesia and her citizens to live by that creed that is encompassed in Bhinneka Tunggal Ika or the idea of having unity in diversity rather than continue down the road of intolerance and indifference to human life and existence.

Once again, the Ahmadis spinning themselves off from Islam will not resolve the violence.

Ho hum...

Bank Century, Bailouts, Quorum, and Libel: Need or Diversion?

No apologies on the long-winded nature of this post. Some will find it interesting and some will be bored to snores.

The Bank Century issue is one that has lingered and lingered, and will seemingly linger some more. It is an interesting political issue in the sense that so many are staking so much on "the case" being resolved. However, the issue, at least for some, for a long time, has been whether or not there is in fact a case to be resolved.

The previous hearings on the "scandal" presumably saw most, if not all, of the pertinent information revealed and placed onto the record. However, it would seem that Golkar, under the auspices of the one and only Aburizal Bakrie, alleged artful tax-dodger, that there is more to the Bank Century scandal than meets the eye. Therefore, Golkar is pushing hard for a full-scale inquisition to re-ignite the Bank Century case in the public arena. The cynics among us will surely not miss that Bank Century will serve as an excellent foil for the immediate aftermath of the Gayus debacle which would have seen some focus return to the Bakrie family and their business accounting practices. A diversion? To each their own.

The question then becomes: "Is there a need for the Bank Century matter to be replayed and re-tried in the court of public opinion through a long and drawn out parliamentary process?" On information currently available and the information that wended its way into the public domain the last time around, the answer is no. Any further inquisition is a waste of time and tax-payers money. Yet, perhaps another round of Bank Century frivolity can put this case to rest once and for all.

A point that must not go unnoticed is that the case has ramifications for the 2014 presidential elections. So, in no uncertain terms much of the desire to keep the Bank Century scandal running is nothing more than cynical political electioneering and an attempt to remove possible challenges to the status quo. Here is a scenario that not a lot of people are talking about yet, but they will.

Sri Mulyani Indrawati, the former Finance Minister and current Managing Director of the World Bank Group will undoubtedly be a target of Golkar in its inquisition. The reason is that Aburizal Bakrie has an axe to grind and she is perceived as a threat to him and his political aspirations. Indrawati has the added value of being perceived as "clean". Clean in no other sense of the word than free of the taint of corruption. The point of the Bank Century scandal is a cynical effort to taint her with the stench of corruption that has and continues to permeate to the core of Indonesian politics.

Aburizal Bakrie wants to be president and Indrawati has the credentials to stand in his way. In fact, there are many who believe that she would make a good president of the Republic of Indonesia herself.

But, Indrawati aside, there are others who can be tainted by the brush of corruption and as such "tarred and feathered" in the public eye. These include the son, Edhie Baskoro, of the current president, SBY. There has been an equal amount of 2014 presidential election talk that the democratic party are looking at cementing the Yudhoyono family political dynasty by either anointing the First Lady, Ani Yudhoyono, or Edhie as the successor and rightful heir to the big chair, RI-1.

Therefore, the current libel case being played out in the Central Jakarta District Court has much relevance to those aspirations of the Demokrat Party and Edhie Baskoro himself. Edhie along with Djoko Suyanto (Coordinating Minister for Legal, Political, and Security Affairs), Andi Mallarangeng (Minister for Sport), and Hatta Rajasa (Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs), have launched a libel action against Mustar Bonaventura and Ferdy Simawun.

Bonaventura and Simawun are from a group called Bendera (Benteng Demokrasi Rakyat / People's Defense for Democracy) (Benteng is a fort and it is used here in the Alamo sense of being the last holdout against the invaders that are all around them. Bendera is also the Indonesia word for Flag). The group is oft described as being an ultranationalist youth group whose first real moments in the public eye came with calls to destroy Malaysia.

Bonaventura and Simawun were at the forefront of claims that Edhie and the others were the recipients of almost USD 200 million in kickbacks from the Bank Century scandal. Aside from Edhie and the others, the implication was that these kickbacks were used to fund others as well and hence the corrupt monies flowed to SBY and others in his inner circle, thus tainting them all with corruption.

The Demokrat Party and some of the other members of the governing coalition have been quick to point out that they are going to try and thwart any re-opening of the Bank Century scandal. However, there are a couple of "problems" on that front. The Constitutional Court recently lowered the numbers necessary for parliamentary quorum to be achieved in order to trigger debate from 3/4 to 2/3. In simple terms, the 26% of the seats that the Demokrat Party held in the House are no longer sufficient to ward of any public pronouncements by the parliament on issues that the Demokrats find striking a little close to home.

Nevertheless, if Golkar was dead set keen to tarnish the reputations of as many political opponents as they can, then they should be channeling much of their attention to the Central Jakarta District Court in support of Banventura and Simawun. They could conceivably be doing this out of the public eye.

The first trial hearing in the libel case was a mess. It was a mess because Bonaventura and Simawun refused to enter the court until their supporters were allowed to be seated in the court for the hearing. For some reason this was permitted. Chaos was almost certain to follow. When Bonaventura and Simawun were finally brought to court and seated for the opening salvos, it was not long before the proceedings degenerated into shouting matches between supporters and witnesses with judges trying to keep order. In the end, the judges ordered the chamber cleared of Bendera supporters, at which point Bonaventura and Simawun left the building with their lawyers in toe. They left because of the inherent unfairness with which their supporters were being treated.

Seriously though, I have no problem with supporters being present, but there are rules and etiquette to be observed in a courtroom whether you like it or not. One of those rules is that there is to be civility, which means that the judges were well within the bounds of fairness to remove unruly supporters.

Nevertheless, unruly supporters aside, the case is an excellent opportunity to put on the public record all and sundry with respect to evidence of the corruption linked to the Bank Century case. In that sense, like it or not, the Bank Century scandal is not done and any dirty laundry, if it exists, can certainly be aired in a libel case like this one.

The reality for Bonaventura and Simawun is that merely getting Edhie and his cohorts up on the stand and asking them whether or not they took the kickbacks is not going to "cut the mustard". The only way that the defense will corner any of these men into confessions is to overwhelm them with the truth of the allegations that have led to the libel petition being filed in the first place. This was evident in the short proceedings of Thursday when Suyanto sat in the witness chair.

Saor Siagian for the defense asked Suyanto whether or not he had received Bank Century funds. Suyanto's simple response was he was not involved in the case. The only way that Siagian can resolve this good ol' Mexican standoff is to have a little more ammunition left in the gun. There needs to be a magic bullet that ties all these claims together and proves that kickbacks were paid. If not, then Siagian has a hard road to hoe that is going to end up with his clients being found to have committed the offense as claimed.

And, this is where Golkar and other Bank Century conspiracy theorists can help Bonaventura and Simawun. Simply, if they have anything like hard evidence as opposed to hearsay, innuendo and the odd creative thought process, then now would be the time to put it out there.

But, getting back to where we started; a need or a diversion? You be the judge!

Clean Governance and Wealth Reports -- Indonesia...

Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, or SBY as he is known to the masses, came to the presidency in a wave of community euphoria that was premised on a belief that he was clean, and that he would make a concerted effort at cleaning up the endemic corruption that had plagued Indonesia under previous administrations.

That euphoria no longer exists as the cold, hard realities of governance has proven that words and actions are two very different animals, particularly actions are a lot harder to master than the words.

A recent report on the Wealth Reports of State Officials (LHKPN) has indicated that the president's party, Partai Demokrat (Democrat Party), has some 28% of its sitting parliamentary members who have failed to lodge their obligatory wealth reports by the required date. In explicit number terms, this is 42 of 148 members have not found the time to complete the wealth report and get it handed in. It is worth noting that the National Mandate Party (PAN) leads the way with a failure rate of 57%. The Democrat Party is closely followed by Golkar with a 26% wealth reporting failure rate.

The wealth reports are generally confidential. They are used by the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) to compare declared wealth at a certain point in time to declared wealth at a later point in time.

For example, when someone becomes a cabinet minister and when they retire (or are dismissed) from that position, or when someone becomes a parliamentarian and when they cease to be a parliamentarian. The reports, where there are large discrepancies, are then used to encourage the relevant officials to justify where that 'additional' wealth came from or where all their declared wealth has disappeared to.

The primary responsibility for compelling Democrat Party parliamentarians to complete the wealth reports lies with the Chair of the party, Anas Urbaningrum. However, it is clear that the Democratic Party is the party of the president, and therefore there is responsibility incumbent upon the president to ensure his political vehicle is always above board on matters such as good clean governance and corruption.

This is yet another test for the SBY legacy.

Party Politics and Succession -- Indonesian Family Dynasties

The importance of family and politics in family is something that is firmly and deeply entrenched in Indonesian politics. The debate about whether political parties need to focus more on merit, particularly the promotion of individuals within a party to leadership positions based on their skills and abilities and not their family connections, has reignited with the suggestion that Ani Yudhoyono, the incumbent president's wife, is on the short list for a crack at the top job in 2014.

The truth of the matter is that a great number, not all, political parties are established as personal political vehicles in order to get the person establishing them elected to office. The parties then tend to become, in a very Javanese sort of a way, a personal fiefdom or kingdom run by the families of the person that established them. The family is normally supported by a loyal and trusted inner circle that knows its place and reaps the rewards of being close to the heart of political and economic power.

The commencement of an Ani Yudhoyono campaign at this stage is somewhat crass and way premature. The reality is that the incumbent president, and now president-elect for a second term, has not even been sworn in for his second term yet. This will not happen until late October. Interestingly, the Partai Demokrat (Democrat Party) has not been trying to kill the story, to the contrary the Deputy Head of the Partai Demokrat, Ahmad Mubarok, has offered Anas Urbaningrum as a more likely candidate. The president's spokesman and head of the Partai Demokrat Central Leadership Board, Andi Mallarangeng, has said it is too early to be thinking about these things as the First Lady had too many interests in her charity work and supporting the president to occupy her time at the moment.

However, it is not only the Partai Demokrat that is struggling with succession. The PDI-P, which is Megawati's family political vehicle is confronting a similar problem with succession and not success. The Indonesian Democratic Party for Struggle (PDI-P) is viewed by the relevant members of Megawati's clan as their party, and as such they should be allowed to run it or determine who is to run it.

The simple reality for PDI-P is that Megawati has failed three times at the polls to get herself elected president by the people. Megawati attained the presidency by default when she finally did fulfill what she sees as her birthright. Another simple reality is that there has not yet been anyone in the Soekarno clan besides Soekarno himself that has had the oratory skills to wind up the masses and capture the collective imagination. No matter what you think of Soekarno, there is little doubt that the man had people skills and charisma that has not passed down through his genes.

So, onto succession. Puan Maharani, Megawati's daughter, has gone on the record to say that she is the most likely and the best possible successor to her floundering, politically, mother. However, this is far from a done deal with Megawati's brother, Guruh, suggesting he is a better candidate than Puan. Megawati herself has also gone on the record to say that it is also not a done deal.

SBY for Secretary General of The United Nations?

Partai Demokrat (Democrat Party), the political vehicle of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, is so buoyed by its recent success in the parliamentary and presidential elections that there is already talk that SBY, as the president is affectionately known, is a serious contender for the position of Secretary General of The United Nations.

The Deputy Head of the Partai Demokrat, Ahmad Mubarok, has been unequivocal in stating that considering the Indonesian Constitution and subsequent electoral laws prohibit SBY from running for a third presidential term, the president is going to take the SBY show on the road and go international, so to speak. It would seem that SBY and the Partai Demokrat have already lined up SBY's next position at The United Nations.

To say that this all seems a little premature is understatement in the extreme. However, what this does say is that SBY appears likely to abandon most of his domestic responsibilities to the Vice President-elect, Boediono, and the next cabinet as he seeks to expand and develop an international profile that is necessary for any serious lobbying for the Secretary General position.

The idea that SBY is a good shot at the Secretary General slot at the UN fails to acknowledge that the man's domestic political record is average at best, and he still has a whole term to serve as president of the Republic of Indonesia where the potential for things to go pear-shaped still exists. The idea of SBY being the Secretary General of The United Nations is also going to ensure that the spotlight is fixed firmly on not only his post-military record but his military record as well. Any skeletons that are in that closet are sure to be exposed.

The point though is not whether SBY is a legitimate shot at succeeding in a bid to be the Secretary General of The United Nations, but rather whether this is the point in time to be talking up the prospect.

Oh well.