Is Boediono the Man for Veep?

There were quite a few questions asked at the time Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) chose Boediono as his running mate and Vice President. Not of the Boedi who type, but rather an analysis of why the incumbent president chose the former Coordinating Minister of Economic Affairs and, at that time, the Head of the Central / Reserve Bank (Bank Indonesia). Yet, the rationale might have been as simple as, "at least it is not Jusuf Kalla!".

That is not to say that Boediono is not an accomplished individual and worthy of the nomination that turned out to be his ticket to the vice presidency, and a heartbeat from the big chair. However, he is certain not to be a constant pain in the proverbial with off the cuff statements about the state of play in Indonesia. JK was renowned for his ability to produce news bites that did not always show SBY's administration in the best light.

Now, Boediono has stepped into the VP slot, or has he?

This photo is doing the rounds on the internet. It has a "Kompas" tag to it. But, I had a quick squizz on Kompas and could not find the photo to link to. But, it is interesting even if it is a photoshop job. It is interesting for the statement that it makes, particularly if you are a cynical pundit like I sometimes can be.

Hope you have all had a good weekend.

Look Whose Smiling Now...Will it Last?

There are some things that just beggar belief and then there are those things that just seem too stupid for words. But, any of you that have read this blog will know that I am rarely stuck for words even when things seem to be too stupid for them.

Comm. Gen. (Police) Susno Duaji found time to make a visit to the Corruption Eradication Commission (Komisi Pemberantasan Korupsi / KPK) to get an update, or as he would prefer to call it, a clarification. Why is this too stupid for words? Anyone who thinks a little bit about this situation will see that this is nothing short of a very public attempt at intimidation. Duaji is saying, "You wanna mess with me, then you end up a suspect, and out of a job!"

This sort of behaviour is reminiscent of a Mafioso made man. It is the behaviour of a man who thinks his back is covered and he is protected. Just sometimes, and only sometimes, these are the people that are most exposed. If for no other reason than they are expendable as the bigger fish look to tie off any loose ends.

By putting himself front and centre on this one, Duaji also becomes the most likely to take the fall or become the scape goat when this whole affair goes pear-shaped. And, it will go pear-shaped, and perhaps soon.

The focus here needs to be only on Duaji at this point in time. Somehow, I believe that there are plenty of people who would share my belief that Duaji wants it no other way.

This post does not lend itself to a very long expose. The spat between the KPK and Duaji, and perhaps the Police, is long on details. Nevertheless, there are a few pertinent details that are worth repeating, along with some educated speculation about why it came about in the first place. It is also worth noting that this is bigger than one man and a couple of state institutions in the form of the KPK and the police.

There are others involved here. This case involves a traceable money trail and it goes without saying that perhaps the Indonesian Financial Transactions Reports and Analysis Center (Pusat Pelaporan dan Analisis Transaksi Keuangan / PPATK) uncovered a trail of cash and other illicit payments that may implicate a number of those individuals that seem intent on shutting down any KPK investigation into Bank Century, and by default Bank Indonesia (Indonesian Central Bank).

Interestingly, if this case does involve BI, and it seemingly does, then who would be involved at that level? When the Bank Century bail out was being discussed and ultimately approved, the Vice President-elect was at the helm. One would have to wonder whether or not there is going to be a concerted effort to shield the VP-elect from any fallout that may eventuate. So, in that case, who takes the fall? Sri Mulyani Indrawati?

It would also seem that the Office of the Attorney General is intricately and intimately involved in the process of facilitating this fiasco. There is plenty already in the public record that suggests that, at least, at the second tier level of AGO officials there was a concerted effort to facilitate an end to the Anggoro Widjojo investigation.

This is a case that will unravel because their are too many hands in the cookie jar.

There is little doubt that Duaji has gone "balls to the wall" on this one. He is investing everything that he has to protect his interests, and perhaps the interests of some others as well. So much so that there are clear breaches of the police code of ethics with respect to the abuse of authority and in terms of more technical aspects of police officers doing their duty and fulfilling their obligations as officers.

It is time that the Chief of Police and the President became more pro-actively involved in this issue. The Chief of Police must stand Duaji down until the investigations are complete.

The potential for this mess to become even uglier and dirtier is huge. Sometimes it is worth while just sitting back and thinking about how big this case has become and how big it is likely to become.

Is it big enough to bring down SBY? Who knows? What does seem certain is that more heads are going to roll!

(Photo courtesy of here)

SBY for Secretary General of The United Nations?

Partai Demokrat (Democrat Party), the political vehicle of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, is so buoyed by its recent success in the parliamentary and presidential elections that there is already talk that SBY, as the president is affectionately known, is a serious contender for the position of Secretary General of The United Nations.

The Deputy Head of the Partai Demokrat, Ahmad Mubarok, has been unequivocal in stating that considering the Indonesian Constitution and subsequent electoral laws prohibit SBY from running for a third presidential term, the president is going to take the SBY show on the road and go international, so to speak. It would seem that SBY and the Partai Demokrat have already lined up SBY's next position at The United Nations.

To say that this all seems a little premature is understatement in the extreme. However, what this does say is that SBY appears likely to abandon most of his domestic responsibilities to the Vice President-elect, Boediono, and the next cabinet as he seeks to expand and develop an international profile that is necessary for any serious lobbying for the Secretary General position.

The idea that SBY is a good shot at the Secretary General slot at the UN fails to acknowledge that the man's domestic political record is average at best, and he still has a whole term to serve as president of the Republic of Indonesia where the potential for things to go pear-shaped still exists. The idea of SBY being the Secretary General of The United Nations is also going to ensure that the spotlight is fixed firmly on not only his post-military record but his military record as well. Any skeletons that are in that closet are sure to be exposed.

The point though is not whether SBY is a legitimate shot at succeeding in a bid to be the Secretary General of The United Nations, but rather whether this is the point in time to be talking up the prospect.

Oh well.

Presidential Election -- Indonesia

The "Quick Count" numbers are suggesting that the ticket of the incumbent president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, and his running mate, Boediono, are going to win the election outright. The current numbers suggest that a September 2009 run-off will not be necessary.

The Indonesian Survey Institute (Lembaga Survei Indonesia / LSI) has SBY / Boediono running at 60.25%. Megawati / Prabowo are trailing in a distant second on 27.44%, and the incumbent vice president, Kalla, and his running mate, Wiranto, are trailing in a very distant third with a mere 12.31% (as of 17.20 Indonesian West Time). The other survey agencies are indicating that they have similar numbers based on their respective polling.

The site "Indonesia Memilih", as produced by Kompas has lots of good coverage and continual Quick Count updates. It is in Indonesian, but the Quick Count numbers are easy enough to follow for those with an interest in this presidential election but limited or no Indonesian language skills.

In many ways I am glad that I did not have a right to vote in the Indonesian Presidential Election. There was not a pair of candidates that I could have voted for and then walked out of the polling booth feeling comfortable with what I had done. I would have had to go home and take a shower and hope that karma forgave me in the long run.

I am someone who believes that if you have a right to vote, and you can exercise that right to vote then you must do so. In the Indonesian case, where so many have sacrificed so much to gain this right, then there is an even greater obligation to exercise that right. There has in the modern era been a movement in Indonesia to exercise the democratic right not to vote. This movement is known as "golput" or golongan putih, the white group. The idea is that if one refuses to vote this is the best way of expressing one's displeasure at the lack of viable choices to choose between.

I would have voted, if I had the right to do so, and marked my ballot in such a way that it was invalid. I would have exercised my right to vote and would have expressed my inability to choose any of the candidates as they are all as poor as each other in terms of ability.

That's just me. And, no one else is me. To each their own. I respect other people's right to express their displeasure by exercising their democratic right not to vote. I would hope that in similar circumstances those people would also respect my right to vote in the way that I choose.

Someone has to win this thing, and with world renowned abusers of human rights on each of the other tickets, the process of elimination leaves the ticket of SBY / Boediono. Unfortunately, during his first five years in the job SBY has not shown himself to be particularly adept at resolving the critical issues facing Indonesia in the short, medium, and long terms.

Nevertheless, Viva Democracy!

Sri Mulyani Indrawti -- Governor of the Indonesian Central Bank?

Politics in Indonesia is a strange animal and even stranger are the motivations of those that play. The latest rumor or perhaps a little more than rumor now that the incumbent president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono or SBY to his friends, has said that he is considering it, is the selection of Sri Mulyani Indrawati (photo) as the prospective Governor of Bank Indonesia (Indonesia's Central Bank).

Sri Mulyani is one of SBY's best performing Ministers, if not his best performing Minister. She holds the Finance Portfolio and since the former Coordinating Minister of Economic Affairs, Boediono, was appointed to Bank Indonesia, she has held that portfolio as well.

She is a world class reformer and has made significant inroads into reforming the bureaucracy. She is generally considered to have been successful in her role and been a driving force in cleaning up her department.

Why is it that her appointment to Bank Indonesia is problematic when Bank Indonesia is also an institution that could benefit from her reforming ways? Well, the move reeks of marginalizing the competition and a real shaker and mover on the agenda of reform. A move to Bank Indonesia takes Sri Mulyani out of the majority of the policy areas that she has been so intimate and successful in to date. Almost certainly leading to a waning of her influence in real and broad reforms.

The move is a backward step for those interested in the bureaucratic reform of government. This is not to say that there are not worthy candidates to replace her, there are. This is a backward step because whoever replaces her would have to work twice as hard to develop the gravitas she has acquired during her time in the position. If SBY, and Boediono, are serious then the most sensible move would be, assuming SBY and Boediono win the presidency and vice-presidency, is to make Sri Mulyani the Coordinating Minister of Economic Affairs in the next SBY Government.

There is little doubt that Sri Mulyani would be appointed to the position of Governor of Bank Indonesia if she were proposed as a candidate. Her confirmation through the Indonesian House of Representatives (DPR) would not likely encounter much resistance, if any.

Is Boediono a Neoliberal?

Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono or SBY as he is affectionately known by the masses has selected the now resigned Central Bank Governor and former Coordinating Minister of Economic Affairs, Boediono, as his running mate for the upcoming presidential elections (photo courtesy of Kompas). There has been mixed reaction to the selection not only from members of the coalition of parties that declared their support for SBY in the period after the general election, but there has been considerable criticism levelled at Boediono from all quarters about his supposed neoliberal attitudes.

The word, neoliberal, is being bandied about like it is some kind of poison chalice that has the potential to sink the SBY march towards a second term. This is fanciful thinking at best considering most polls have SBY running so far ahead of the other candidates that a run-off election is looking unnecessary. In fact some polls have SBY securing more than 70% of the vote if the presidential election was held today.

Even if some of the other parties gain a little bit of traction on this neoliberal point which is a catch word for being pro-capitalism, pro-markets, and anti-little people. It has to be noted that on each of the other two tickets you have men who have made fortunes exploiting the little people and being actively involved in the free markets and the capitalist ideal. Jusuf Kalla is going to get no traction from this.

Megawati and Prabowo are also not going to gain much from running a neoliberal argument. Prabowo is, according to the recently submitted wealth reports, the wealthiest of them all. This is funny in that perverse kind of a way considering that Prabowo's whole campaign has been based on his ability to empathize with the little people, the farmers, the small scale traders, the poor. How does a man with IDR 1.7 trillion in assets and cash empathize with the daily grind that is the life of a sharecropper in the rural areas of Indonesia? When was the last time Prabowo lived from harvest to harvest in a period of sustained drought?

So, what is neoliberalism anyway. You can find an interesting article on it here. Nevertheless, most tend to agree that neoliberalism contains the following key elements: free markets, slashing public expenditure, deregulation, privatization, and replacing the idea of community with individual responsibility.

Now, the case for Boediono being a neoliberal is that he is beholden to the free market and as such a sell-out to foreign interests and must even be considered as a traitor to his own people. Somewhat extreme, but this is Indonesian politics in action, some might argue democracy in action. Boediono has pointed out in response to this criticism that he was chosen by SBY an Indonesian, and if he was beholden to foreign interests then SBY would never have selected him to be VP. This is hardly a convincing or strong argument against being neoliberal.

The better response he has made to these charges are that there is, in any economy, a need to participate in the free market. However, this is to be moderated with effective state intervention to ensure that the interests of the state and in essence the interest of the little people are protected. To this end Boediono oversaw a number of programs that were definitely pro-poor such as the Direct Cash Assistance (Bantuan Langsung Tunai / BLT) program.

However, his critics quickly point out that it has been under Boediono's watch that some 40 State-Owned Enterprises (Badan Usaha Milik Negara / BUMN) have been vetted for privatization. I am not for privatization for privatization's sake, but sometimes a poorly performing state-owned enterprise can benefit from the escape from government bureaucracy. The government can set strict rules to ensure that the assets are not completely lost or that the privatization must take into account particular interests.

In this sense, Boediono is more an economic realist. He realizes that there is some benefit to be enjoyed from the better economic management of government interests and exposure to the free market might provide greater benefits than the oft claimed negatives.

In any event, the claims have seen a heated little battle between Boediono and Kalla emerge to the fore. Kalla claiming that Boediono's neoliberal ways will see the collapse of the Indonesian economy and all Indonesians being destined to become migrant workers in their own country (awesome visualization if you can get your head around it as most Indonesians are familiar with the trauma that most Indonesian migrant workers suffer at the hands of unscrupulous foreign employers). For Boediono, his dig was that a vote for Kalla is a vote for a family firm that is destined to employ all means of state to developing and supporting the family business.

I am always keen for a little bit of to and fro during an election cycle.

The outcome here is that the SBY ticket is likely to offer up a mixed bag on the economy. Specifically, there are likely to be elements of the free market (with the emphasis being on fair trade rather than free trade) and perhaps explicit protections from an over-deregulation or privatization of natural resources, particularly those in the mining, oil and gas, and forestry sectors.

Is Boediono a neoliberal?

Not 100% neoliberal.

How Rich are the Candidates -- Indonesia's Presidential and Vice-Presidential Candidates

Wealth reports always make for an interesting read and is the little person's chance for a little bit of voyeurism into the financial lives of the famous (or infamous). The Corruption Eradication Commission or the KPK is set to start verifying the wealth of the prospective candidates for both the presidency and the vice-presidency.

All of the prospective presidential candidates have submitted their reports. Only one vice-presidential candidate has submitted his wealth report. This happens to be, Boediono, the running mate of the current president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY). May be this is indicative of the fact that SBY considers himself to be a shoe-in for the presidential election and so long as he turns up he will be a winner. It also fits the image of a man who likes to appear to be above the fray.

Prabowo and Wiranto have yet to submit their wealth reports (at least this was the case this morning). Both of these reports should make for interesting reading, particularly Prabowo's as he has supposedly generated considerable wealth since his honorable discharge from the military. Wiranto's will also be an interesting read because it will be interesting to see how a general, whose military salary was comparatively small, finds the funds to establish a political party.

What the wealth reports will highlight though is that personal wealth is not necessarily a guarantee of political success, particularly if one's goal is the big chair in the palace.

The Indonesian Equation -- Legislation + Money = Corruption

With the recent arrest of the current Bank Indonesia (Indonesian Central Bank / BI) Governor, Burhanuddin Abdullah, for the alleged misappropriation of some USD 11 million from the bank in payments to various legislators to ensure the passage of BI related bills and legislation has proved that money and legislation just do not mix!

The Governor's official tenure in office does not end until May. However, the House of Representatives (DPR) has just approved the current Coordinating Minister of Economic Affairs, Boediono, as the next Governor of BI. In light of the arrest and detention of the current Governor perhaps the Governor-designate needs to move offices and get an early start!

One hopes that this signifies that the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) is getting better and more competent at its job and a more coordinated and significant effort to reduce corruption will be the norm from now on.