Presidential Election -- Indonesia

The "Quick Count" numbers are suggesting that the ticket of the incumbent president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, and his running mate, Boediono, are going to win the election outright. The current numbers suggest that a September 2009 run-off will not be necessary.

The Indonesian Survey Institute (Lembaga Survei Indonesia / LSI) has SBY / Boediono running at 60.25%. Megawati / Prabowo are trailing in a distant second on 27.44%, and the incumbent vice president, Kalla, and his running mate, Wiranto, are trailing in a very distant third with a mere 12.31% (as of 17.20 Indonesian West Time). The other survey agencies are indicating that they have similar numbers based on their respective polling.

The site "Indonesia Memilih", as produced by Kompas has lots of good coverage and continual Quick Count updates. It is in Indonesian, but the Quick Count numbers are easy enough to follow for those with an interest in this presidential election but limited or no Indonesian language skills.

In many ways I am glad that I did not have a right to vote in the Indonesian Presidential Election. There was not a pair of candidates that I could have voted for and then walked out of the polling booth feeling comfortable with what I had done. I would have had to go home and take a shower and hope that karma forgave me in the long run.

I am someone who believes that if you have a right to vote, and you can exercise that right to vote then you must do so. In the Indonesian case, where so many have sacrificed so much to gain this right, then there is an even greater obligation to exercise that right. There has in the modern era been a movement in Indonesia to exercise the democratic right not to vote. This movement is known as "golput" or golongan putih, the white group. The idea is that if one refuses to vote this is the best way of expressing one's displeasure at the lack of viable choices to choose between.

I would have voted, if I had the right to do so, and marked my ballot in such a way that it was invalid. I would have exercised my right to vote and would have expressed my inability to choose any of the candidates as they are all as poor as each other in terms of ability.

That's just me. And, no one else is me. To each their own. I respect other people's right to express their displeasure by exercising their democratic right not to vote. I would hope that in similar circumstances those people would also respect my right to vote in the way that I choose.

Someone has to win this thing, and with world renowned abusers of human rights on each of the other tickets, the process of elimination leaves the ticket of SBY / Boediono. Unfortunately, during his first five years in the job SBY has not shown himself to be particularly adept at resolving the critical issues facing Indonesia in the short, medium, and long terms.

Nevertheless, Viva Democracy!

Will There Be A Runoff?

This is probably not the biggest question of the day but nevertheless it is an interesting question for Indonesian politics with charges being leveled at the various surveying agencies involved. The question is whether the incumbent president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono or SBY, will win the presidency in one round or two.

The Indonesian Survey Institute (Lembaga Survei Indonesia / LSI) issued survey results last week that suggest that SBY will win in one round as he polled somewhere around 70% support of those who were surveyed. These results were questioned as the survey was commissioned by Fox Indonesia. Fox Indonesia has links to the SBY campaign.

However, it is worth noting that the LSI conducted the survey and not Fox Indonesia. If the claim is that the LSI produced the results that Fox Indonesia wanted, then this brings into question the credibility of LSI. However those claiming that the results lack credibility have offered nothing more than the fact that Fox commissioned the survey.

In contrast to the LSI survey, the Information Research Institute (Lembaga Riset Informasi / LRI) conducted a survey of its own and achieved some very different results. It is clear that the LRI has links to the Kalla - Wiranto campaign through Kalla. The LRI went to some length stating that the survey was not commissioned by the Kalla - Wiranto campaign.

However, these links should not automatically disqualify the survey results obtained. What is interesting is that the Director of LRI, Johan Silalahi, has stated that if SBY wins in one round he would be willing to dissolve the LRI. He then issues a similar challenge to LSI on their credibility if the LSI results are not borne out in the presidential election.

The LRI survey still has SBY in front of the crowd but the difference suggests a two-round election process. The LRI survey results suggest that SBY has about 33% of the vote, Kalla trails on 29%, and Megawati is a somewhat distant third on 20%.

The argument for the difference in these results is that the has been a recent, and obviously rapid, movement of support to Kalla. This is being attributed to Muslims who are uncomfortable with SBY, particularly relating to the wearing of the jilbab and racism. Zulkieflimansyah of PKS (Prosperous Justice Party / Partai Keadilan Sejahtera), one of parties supporting SBY, has suggested that the members and followers of that party might support Kalla as his wife wears the jilbab.

The racism charges stem from the following comment by Ruhut Sitompul, who just happens to be a member of Partai Demokrat (Democratic Party / PD) Central Board (which happens to be SBY's party), "Arabs have never done anything for Indonesia." Reminds me of the film Forrest Gump, stupid is as stupid does. So, Ruhut, don't hold back; tell us what you think of Indonesians of Chinese, Indian, or Dutch descent.

So, who is right with these surveys? I suppose we will find out on 8 July 2009 when the presidential election is to be held. In the big scheme of things, and surveys aside, it would be interesting to hear and read what the actual policies of each of the candidate pairings are as this might be a little more relevant to the future of Indonesia.

Indonesian politics, lovin' it!

A Sad State of Affairs

This is one of those issues where some will agree and some will disagree and some will just want to ask what the alternatives are. The reality is that this is a sad state of affairs. I am still planning on writing a series on all of the potential presidential candidates listed here. I have started with Megawati and been a little slack on following this up. I still have time on my side though.

A recent survey of 1,239 people (I have always wondered why survey organizations could not make it a round number, like 1,250 for example) by the Indonesian Survey Institute (Lembaga Survei Indonesia / LSI) has found that the current president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) has re-emerged as the most likely to be elected president in the upcoming presidential election. SBY has managed to turn around his previous poor showing that saw him slip behind a former president in Megawati.

The race is shaping into a two-horse race between SBY and Megawati. SBY is currently seein his support running at 32% and Megawati trailing with 24%. The rest of the potential presidential candidates seem to be in the "no-hope(r)" category. Following Megawati in the distance is Wiranto with 6% and Prabowo with 5%.

Wiranto and Prabowo both have skeletons in the closet that should preclude them from serious consideration. These skeltons exist as part of their respective army careers and relate to what they knew and when with respect to Timor Leste in Wiranto's case and the disappearance of activists in Prabowo's case. If these issues were satisfactorily resolved then so be it.

I am sure that some might argue this is irrelevant as they have never been charged so this is therefore a non-issue. To each their own. If I could vote, I would not be voting for either. I also would not be voting for SBY or Megawati.

Following Prabowo is the Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono X on 3%. The rest of the potential candidates are running at less than 3% so their chances at this stage would seem to be somewhere between zero and none.

Why is this a sad state of affairs? This is a sad state of affairs because the two most likely candidates for president at this time are a currently failing president and the immediate past president who also failed.

I am sure that with the quaity on offer there is likely to be a big push for and from the "Golput" supporters. Golput is the abbreviation of Golongan Putih or White Group who advocate that where all of the choices are poor quality then voters should exercise their right not to vote.

A sad state of affairs.