Is SBY a Walking, Talking Trigger for Natural Disasters?

You know what they say, "small things amuse small minds". There is nothing amusing about the recent earthquakes in Padang, and the more than 1000 lives lost there, or the tsunami that devastated Aceh in 2004. However, the idea of linking the current president, Mr. Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono or SBY, to the regular natural disasters that confront Indonesia is. It is not only amusing, but reeks of political opportunism. When politicians and others must be focused on disaster response and then putting into place appropriate disaster response mechanisms to ensure that aid and assistance gets to where its needed most and fast.

The recent Padang earthquakes has once again highlighted how under-prepared and ill-equipped Indonesia is with respect to responding to natural disasters. This is no longer a simple case of passing a little bit of legislation here and there, and pumping out a few ministerial regulations. It is now a matter of ensuring that the provisions of the laws and regulations as they currently stand are given the amount of resources required to guarantee that they function.

There will always be disasters that one cannot prepare for, or no manner of preparation will be enough. The tsunami in Aceh is evidence of that. Yet, there are still initiatives that can be undertaken to minimize the tragic outcomes.

Anyways, back to the original intent of the post; is SBY to blame for the earthquake?

It seems a little far-fetched to suggest that SBY is responsible for the earthquake. He might have been re-elected by 60% of the population however this is hardly a mandate to shift tectonic plates. SBY might even think that he is God-like, but there is a big difference between God-like and God.

The whispers persist though that SBY is an unlucky man. He was born on an unlucky day where the date and the stars were aligned against him being lucky. Now, for an unlucky man, he has certainly been pretty lucky when all things are considered; rising through the ranks to general, a stint as a cabinet minister, and now a second term as president. Most Indonesians would consider that to be pretty lucky.

Then again, there have been a litany of natural and man-made disasters during his tenure. So many, in fact, that there is an old joke that SBY stands for "selalu bencana ya". The translation of which is 'always disaster yes', which sort of loses its impact as a play on the president's initials.

Permadi, is a politician that was originally associated with the Indonesian Democratic Party for Struggle of Megawati, but who of more recent times has shifted allegiance to Gerindra, the party of Prabowo. Permadi is known as a practicing mystic. He is also known for his penchant of wearing all black clothes, allegedly the "all black" theme includes his underwear. Now, according to Permadi, the Primbon is pretty clear that the numbers in the president's date of birth are unlucky. They are numbers that will always attract natural disasters to Indonesia.

So, for Permadi, the best option is that SBY step down from the presidency and focus on other things. It is clear, to Permadi, that if SBY refuses to show heart and step down a bigger and more devastating natural disaster will befall Jakarta. Is this irresponsible fear-mongering, political opportunism, or a genuine belief that the president is an unlucky man? It is a bit of everything, but that said, it hardly seems likely that the president is going to resign from office because people think he has been born under an unlucky alignment of stars.

What is a little more bizarre for me is that the president gives this idea credence by addressing it. A couple of years ago in an address to local officials in West Sumatra he broached the topic and said something along the lines of, 'just because I am president does not give me the power to command the forces of nature'. I guess there is nothing like feeding the fire.

My condolences to all those who lost family, friends, and colleagues in the devastation wrought by the two earthquakes last week. May you find the strength to rebuild your shattered lives and may the government get its act together enough to assist you through the challenges you face.

(Photo courtesy of Reuters)

SBY and the Photos -- Are They or Aren't They...

Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, or SBY as he is affectionately known, seems to have erred in his speech in the immediate aftermath of the bombings of the JW Marriott and Ritz-Carlton hotels last Friday. The president used the opportunity to link the bombings to the recent presidential elections and then to link his political rivals to the bombings and other yet to occur violence at the Headquarters of the General Election Commission (Komisi Pemilihan Umum / KPU).

It is now being argued whether the speech is to become an ongoing political problem for the incumbent president as he heads into a likely second term (the official election results have not yet been released) or is it nothing more than a storm in a tea cup that will dissipate as quickly as it formed.

It has also recently come to light that the photos that the president used in order to highlight that the terrorists were in fact after him are probably from 2004. So, it seems highly unlikely that the link between the alleged plot targeting the president, the bombings, and the photos can be sustained. Ruhut Sitompul of the Partai Demokrat is unequivocal in stating that the photos were confiscated in May 2009 at a terrorist training facility in East Kalimantan. The president also is adopting this line.

Yet, there are plenty of people coming forward suggesting that these are the same photos that were shown to the House of Representatives (DPR) in 2004 by the National Intelligence Agency (Badan Intelijen Negara / BIN). Permadi and Andreas Pereira of PDI-P have said that they saw these pictures in 2004. Sidney Jones of the International Crisis Group also believes that the photos originated in 2004 and were taken at a facility in West Seram in Maluku.

If it is true that these photos are from 2004 then there are two distinct possibilities; the president has been misled by his closest security advisers or SBY was being a little disingenuous by using these photos to link the attacks to himself and the recent elections.

However, the president is not conceding that he erred in his judgment in making the statements that he made. To the contrary, SBY has gone on the offensive to state that his comments have been misinterpreted as the speech did not link the hotel bombings to the elections and presumably he did not all but name Prabowo as being involved.

I must add here that I am not a fan of Prabowo. The evidence put forward to date that he was involved in the disappearance and presumed murder of activists in 1998 is compelling and deserves to be heard in a court of law. The idea that the let bygones be bygones, and that this is all ancient history and Indonesia is ready to move on, neglects to understand the loss suffered by the family and friends of those who were disappeared. My argument has always been that the timing of SBY in calling out Prabowo, and suggesting that Prabowo's time was near in terms of him being held accountable for his past sins, in this particular speech and at this particular moment was poor. I am all for the heat being turned up on Prabowo.

The president claims that the photos are from 2009 and the intelligence is real, and not some rumour, gossip, or beat-up for the press as being perpetuated by those not in the know.

The debate as it develops is interesting as there are two distinct camps evolving; those that think the president erred in the manner in which he went about this business and those who do not give the proverbial, rat's arse, and who cannot see what the fuss is about. In the former camp is Professor Effendy Ghazali. Ghazali is adamant that SBY has made a "significant mistake". The reality is a little more simple than that, the president might have erred in his judgment on this one but it is far from likely that this error is going to be fatal to his next term in office.

If the photos are definitively proven to be from 2004 and not from May 2009 then this story might get a new set of legs.

Watch this space.

SBY -- Flustered?

My previous post on the recent bombings in Jakarta and the speech by SBY in the aftermath dealt with the idea that he used his position as president to take advantage of the tragic events to score a few political points and to finger the opposition of being involved. Now, it may well turn out after the investigation that the president's accusations are borne out and Prabowo was the man.

However, all early indications are suggesting that this was a JI, or remnants of JI, operation with a man by the name of Nur Hasbi (or Nur Aziz) allegedly being at least one of the suicide bombers. It seems that Nur Hasbi has links to JI and to Abu Bakar Ba'asyir through Al-Mukmin Ngruki Islamic Boarding School (Pesantren).

The Sydney Morning Herald and their correspondent on the ground in Jakarta, Tom Allard, is running a story with the headline that the speech indicates that Dr. Yudhoyono is flustered and that the speech in which he links his rivals (primarily Prabowo) to the bombing violence as being extraordinary. The sense of extraordinary being that the speech and the linking of his rivals runs counter to what most people would have expected considering the nature of the events. The story goes on to suggest that this is raising serious concerns about the president's judgment in a crisis situation.

When you are like me, to suggest that the president might have a few judgment issues and that he took advantage of a tragic situation to score political points is likely to get you labeled as a foreigner (or as Indonesians prefer to call their white foreign folk, bule) trying to read too much into a situation, or simply not understanding the Indonesian dynamic or "way" because you are white (there are plenty of examples of this -- See Indonesia Matters for a sampling of these types of comments). This is always an easy way out of having to debate the real issues of substance. It always reminds me of the kid who brings the ball for the footy match and when he gets picked last, decides he would rather take the ball and go home than play.

The substantive issues in the speech are critical and must be addressed. It is time for the president to ante-up if he is intending to stand by the statements that he has made. Specifically, the idea that the attack was really an attack by the political elites of Indonesia against him personally. The president talks in his speech about Indonesia being a country where the rule of law applies and a place where evidence is required to gain a conviction. Now would see like an appropriate time to put forward a little more convincing proof than a few photos and a video of some balaclava clad supposed terrorists shooting at a mugshot of the president.

Furthermore, that there is or was a plan to take over the General Election Commission headquarters on the announcement of his presumed victory in the recent presidential elections. If there is enough intelligence floating around that this "attack" was a real possibility then there is enough intelligence obviously that the attack would have been thwarted. How about some evidence being released and the arrest of some of the would-have-been perpetrators of this brazen attack on Indonesian democracy and the headquarters of the KPU.

Finally, the president has indirectly linked Prabowo as being an instigator of the bombings and presumably the impending violent response to the announcement of the presidential election results on 27 July 2009. This really does require a little bit of support in terms of evidence. It will be interesting to see whether Prabowo and his legal team thinks there is enough in the statement to start some defamation proceedings. Anyone who knows anything about Prabowo's questionable human rights history knows that the references in SBY's speech can only be about Prabowo.

The speech was extraordinary. It was extraordinary because the speech was prepared prior to it being given. This was a planned and calculated attempt to use a tragic set of circumstances for personal political gain. Even if at some point in the future the president's assertions are proven to be true, specifically that his political rivals are involved, it still does not condone the method or the timing of the speech to launch a personal attack of his own. It cannot be forgotten that this is a case where innocent Indonesians and foreigners lost their lives in attack that was anything but a personal attack on the president.

SBY's Speech in the Aftermath of the 17 July 2009 Bombings

The translation that follows has been lifted / borrowed from The Jakarta Globe (it is good enough for the comments that I want to make on it, and besides I am too lazy to do it myself so it would be a bit rude to criticize it when that is the case :D). I am not a big fan of the incumbent president, and now president-elect to a second term, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono or SBY. This lack of enthusiasm clearly puts me in the minority according to the quick counts in the post-election wrap-up and the surveys leading into the most recent presidential election.

I will insert my comments in square brackets [] and in this bold.

Assalamu’alaikum warahmatullahi wabarakatuh,

Greetings to everyone,

My fellow countrymen and women, to all Indonesians that I love, wherever you are. Today is a black dot in our history [as a nation]. Once again, there has been an attack or a bombing committed by terrorists in Jakarta. It is suspected to have been committed by a group of terrorists, although it may not necessarily be the same terrorism network that we have realized cause nothing but sufferings and troubles that all Indonesians have had to bear. [Expected start]

This barbaric act has brought about innocent casualties as well. Therefore, on this opportunity, on behalf of the country and the government, and as a person, I would like to express my heartfelt condolences to the families of the victims. To all the victims, our thoughts and prayers are with you. [Expected - violence is not the answer. Not only is the act barbaric it is wrong on all fronts and grounds. Nobody with a sane mind can condone the killings of innocents]

My fellow countrymen and women, the inhuman and thoughtless bombing occurred just when our nation had held its presidential election and while the General Elections Commission (KPU) is still tallying the votes. It has greatly disrupted the security and peace of the country while people want a safe, peaceful and conducive situation. People want the conclusion of the 2009 General Elections to be the starting point for us to unite and rebuild our country for the sake of all Indonesian people. [Some have argued that the speech does not politicize the bombing and has not sort to capitalize for personal popularity the tragedy of these bombings.

There has been much made of the possibility that Prabowo or someone associated with one of the campaigns is responsible for the bombings as a means of undermining and destabilizing SBY. This seems highly unlikely, but not outside the realm of possibility. Nevertheless, the question remains why raise the spectre of this kind of evil prior to the inevitable investigation being completed. The intent seems clear to me that the president is trying to link the bombings to the election outcome. A little premature, even if ultimately proved true.

Interestingly, if this, the election and bombing link, was to prove true, then all this discussion about Jemaah Islamiyya, Noordin M. Top, splinter groups, and the like, is then way off base. This is extreme domestic political violence and not terrorism in the traditional meaning of the word or at least how many viewed terrorism before 9/11.

Another interesting angle getting some airplay is that this was not terrorism or political, but rather a dispute about local control of resources, particularly in Papua. Specifically, the suggestion is that the round table hosted by James Castle of CastleAsia was targeted because of the executives who were to attend. If this turns out to be true then the attack was brazen and audacious. The idea that the bombings are in some way related to the recent violence and killings in Papua in and around the Freeport concession is one for the conspiracy theorists. Although conspiracy theorists can give any piece of speculation enough legs to run with and some people will believe it -- 9/11 and the CIA and FBI involvement in bringing down the World Trade Centers.]

The bombing was committed when people were still concerned with political brouhaha at the elite level, also — as I have been noticing everyday — with provocative remarks that maintain heated and hostile circumstances, which is not the aspiration of the people who fulfilled their political duties a few weeks ago. [Seems to be a dig at Prabowo. Prabowo has been vocal in his public criticisms of the electoral process, particularly the quick counts. This part of the speech says to the other two campaigns that it is time to suck it up and admit that you lost, the people have spoken and spoken decisively, they do not want you, they want me. So, be good sports and good losers and go home!]

My fellow countrymen and women, I believe almost all of us feel sympathy and sadness, and cry inside, as I do now. Indeed, there are few people who are laughing and screaming in delight, satisfying their maddening anger. These few people, heartless and careless for the destruction of our country from terrorism, do not care about the vast implications of their brutality toward our economy, business climate, tourism, image in the world and many other factors. Presently, my brothers and sisters, beside us, the government is performing emergency response measures to treat the victims of the bombing. An investigation is on the way as well. I have received a preliminary report of the ongoing investigation. After I read the report, I instructed the Chief of Police, the National Intelligence Agency and other related state institutions to conduct a proper and thorough investigation and to bring the perpetrators to justice. [A little bit cryptic for me.

Besides, the Chief of Police, the National Intelligence Agency (BIN), and other related State Institutions have not been able to bring the perpetrators of the Munir assassination to justice. So, the best bet here is that a few low-ranking goons will be "caught", paraded about, tried, convicted, and executed, while the elites to which SBY referred to earlier will continue to go on their respective merry ways.]

I believe, as we have discovered before, that the perpetrators and the people who masterminded this terror will be apprehended and we will prosecute them under the law. I have instructed law enforcers to prosecute anyone involved. Whoever he or she is, from whatever political rank and background. [see the above comment. Not likely!]

This morning, I have received many statements, or reminders, that made me theorize, or at least be concerned, that this terrorism is related to the result of the presidential election. I would respond like this — that we should not point our fingers, or blame someone without proof. All theories and speculations must be proven in court. Our country is a lawful country, as well as a democratic one. Therefore, the norms of law and democracy must be enacted properly. If someone is guilty under the law, then we could say that the person is guilty. [SBY returns to the political / election theme.

Why does he do this if he is not trying to politicize these tragic bombings for personal political gain?

He is pointing fingers and casting about blame without proof. Unless a photo of a masked man shooting at a picture of his head is proof that the bombings are political. Then, if the bombings are political, why raise the spectre of terrorism?]

I must say for the first time to all Indonesians that during the series of legislative and presidential elections in 2009, there were several intelligence reports that were gathered by law enforcers. Once again, this information has never been made public. The report showed a group of terrorists had practiced shooting at my picture, SBY's picture, as a target. Let me show you. [See the above comment.]

This is a video recording of them practicing shooting. Two men are shooting with handguns. This is the target. And this is my picture, and they are aiming approximately at my face. This is the intelligence report, with video tape and pictures. It is not a slander, nor an issue. I received the report several moments ago. It is still related to the intelligence that acknowledged there is a plan to commit violence or actions against the law in relation to the election result. [Continuing with the theme that this is a political attack against him as the sitting president. A few pictures and a video is hardly evidence of a wide-ranging political conspiracy to assassinate him.]

There was also a plan to occupy the office of the General Elections Commission when the result is to announced. There was a statement that there would be a revolution if SBY wins. This is an intelligence report, not rumors, nor gossip. Other statements said they wished to turn Indonesia into [a country like] Iran. And the last statement said that no matter what, SBY should not and would not be inaugurated. You can interpret such threats, and the tens of other intelligence reports that are currently in the hands of our law enforcers. [Fear mongering at best. At worst this is a clear attempt to set the scene for a repressive crackdown on any political dissent by saying "if we do not stop it now then we will never be able to stop it".]

This morning, just like I used to do, I wanted to come personally to the location [of the attack]. But the Chief of Police and others suggested I should wait, since the area was not yet secure. And danger could come at any time, especially with all of the threats I have shown you. Physical threats. [This is a nice touch. No matter what the danger I am there for you my fellow citizens.]

Surely, life and death is in God's hands. I should not worry and be restrained in doing my duty to the people, to this country. Since presidential security is borne by the Indonesian Armed Forces, I believe the armed forces have taken the precautions needed. To all intelligence reports, whether they are related to the bombing or not, I have instructed to all law enforcers to perform their duties correctly, objectively, decisively and lawfully. [Clearly life and death is not exclusively in the hands of God. It is also in the backpacks and suitcase of bombers who care not for what God thinks with respect to the killing of innocents, they just go about their business of killing and maiming.

I have always had a few issues with the idea of a vengeful God that permits the killing of innocents.]

If the threats are not related to today's bombing, they still need to be prevented, because anarchy, violence, vandalism and all other crimes are not the characteristics of a democratic and lawful country, obviously. For all of this, I, as the president, condemn the brutal act of terrorism. I also feel very sorry about the incident. Perhaps, or usually, during times like this, many of us are afraid to express our scorns or condemnations due to political considerations. On the other hand, I must say it loud and clear, as my mandate as the president. [What? After all this talk about how the bombings were election related and an attempt to undermine political stability and related to a plot to assassinate you, there is still a chance that the bombings are terrorism and not political? OK deh!]

Why do I have to feel very sorry? First of all, you all know that for the last five years, our economy has been growing rapidly. Business, tourism, food self-sufficiency, investment, trade, real sectors, have all been moving favorably regardless of the global crisis. Secondly, during the last week alone, our stock exchange index were improving drastically and our Rupiah was strengthening [against US dollar] as well. With the growing economy, the welfare of our people was developing also, including the execution of poverty and unemployment eradication programs, which I usually mention as the Pro-People Program. [Ahhh, this is not a campaign stop and a photo opportunity to talk up the last five years you have been president. Besides, there has been plenty written in the lead up to the election that would suggest that your record is not quite as rosy as you make it out to be.]

All that has happened, my beloved brothers and sisters of Indonesia, is because in the last couple of years, our country has been truly safe and peaceful. In addition to the economic growth, our people throughout the country can work and live their lives in peace, free from fear. Meanwhile, the reputation of our country in the world is increasing as the world sees our country to be more safe, organized and peaceful. Our country has a blooming democracy and improved human rights implementation, a developing country that plays its role globally. Even, and this is a sad part, if the bombing did not occur, a legendary football club, Manchester United, would have played in Jakarta. [There are a few more things a little more sad than whether Manchester United plays a football game in Jakarta!]

My fellow countrymen and women, with all of these brutal and thoughtless acts of terrorism, what we have built in the last five years with the labor and sweat of all Indonesians, once again must endure another shake and setback. Implications, once again, must be borne by all Indonesians, minus the bombers. [Of course, particularly if the bombers were suicide bombers.]

Therefore, truth and justice will be served. I swear, for the sake of my beloved Indonesians, that the government will execute proper and decisive punishments to the bombers, including the mastermind and organizers, and for other crimes that might or could happen on our country nowadays. [Not likely. As I said, the authorities have not been able to catch the masterminds of the Munir assassination. So, why would this be any different?]

To the Indonesian Police Force, Indonesian Armed Forces and National Intelligence Agency, also the governors, district chiefs and mayors, I would like to ask you to remain on high-alert status and strive to prevent terrorism. More importantly, the law enforcers must truly seek, capture and prosecute the perpetrators, organizers, and masterminds behind this violence. Maybe some of them have committed crimes, assassination or murders and gotten away with these crimes, but this time we will not let them become Draculas and death-mongers in our country. [So, why did the State let these "Draculas" get away with crimes in the past and what has changed now?]

I realize that for the last five years, police have frequently prevented and stopped terrorism actions. Confiscating explosive materials, uncovering several terrorism networks, even though today's bombing has happened, a disaster that has torn the security and reputation of our country and nation. To prevent and exterminate terrorism, and other crimes properly, the intelligence [agency] must be very sharp. Prevention must be very effective. The police, the intelligence agency, the armed forces must unite in a complete synergy. Negligence and ignorance must be discarded. This is our mandate given by the people, for our country. [By whatever means necessary?]

To all Indonesians, as you increase public alertness, stay at your work and live your lives normally. If something suspicious happens, call the police. Don't let terrorists and their masterminds lurk in your neighborhood. You can fall prey to their actions at any time if they are allowed to mastermind further terror in our country. [This is similar to a program currently running in Australia. There are public service type announcements and advertisements on the TV asking people to report suspicious activities to the Australian authorities.]

For the future, I encourage all Indonesians and all elements of the nation to unite and stand together in protecting the safety and peace of this country. No country and no religion condones terrorism, whatever the motives and reasons are. Don't hesitate, nor be afraid, in preventing and exterminating terrorism. Meanwhile, the terror we had today should never break our spirit and endeavor to build and to advance our country. [Agreed. This is very sensible. Viva democracy, viva peace, viva Indonesia!]

We must keep on fighting to better our economy, politics, democracy, human rights implementation, law enforcement, regional development, people's welfare and so on. The fact is that there is a major catastrophe due to today's act of terrorism. But we will make it right together, and we shall rise and move forward again. We, the nation, the country and the people, shall not falter nor cave in to terrorism. No violence, extremism, and other crimes shall continue to live on this country.

God Almighty, Allah SWT, shall protect and save our lives. With God's blessings, I assure you, my brothers and sisters of Indonesia, that I shall stand right up front to face the clear and present danger and to carry out the hard, yet noble, mandate you have given to me.

Thank you, [You're welcome!]

Wassalamu’alaikum warahmatullahi wabarakatuh.

Presidential Election -- Indonesia

The "Quick Count" numbers are suggesting that the ticket of the incumbent president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, and his running mate, Boediono, are going to win the election outright. The current numbers suggest that a September 2009 run-off will not be necessary.

The Indonesian Survey Institute (Lembaga Survei Indonesia / LSI) has SBY / Boediono running at 60.25%. Megawati / Prabowo are trailing in a distant second on 27.44%, and the incumbent vice president, Kalla, and his running mate, Wiranto, are trailing in a very distant third with a mere 12.31% (as of 17.20 Indonesian West Time). The other survey agencies are indicating that they have similar numbers based on their respective polling.

The site "Indonesia Memilih", as produced by Kompas has lots of good coverage and continual Quick Count updates. It is in Indonesian, but the Quick Count numbers are easy enough to follow for those with an interest in this presidential election but limited or no Indonesian language skills.

In many ways I am glad that I did not have a right to vote in the Indonesian Presidential Election. There was not a pair of candidates that I could have voted for and then walked out of the polling booth feeling comfortable with what I had done. I would have had to go home and take a shower and hope that karma forgave me in the long run.

I am someone who believes that if you have a right to vote, and you can exercise that right to vote then you must do so. In the Indonesian case, where so many have sacrificed so much to gain this right, then there is an even greater obligation to exercise that right. There has in the modern era been a movement in Indonesia to exercise the democratic right not to vote. This movement is known as "golput" or golongan putih, the white group. The idea is that if one refuses to vote this is the best way of expressing one's displeasure at the lack of viable choices to choose between.

I would have voted, if I had the right to do so, and marked my ballot in such a way that it was invalid. I would have exercised my right to vote and would have expressed my inability to choose any of the candidates as they are all as poor as each other in terms of ability.

That's just me. And, no one else is me. To each their own. I respect other people's right to express their displeasure by exercising their democratic right not to vote. I would hope that in similar circumstances those people would also respect my right to vote in the way that I choose.

Someone has to win this thing, and with world renowned abusers of human rights on each of the other tickets, the process of elimination leaves the ticket of SBY / Boediono. Unfortunately, during his first five years in the job SBY has not shown himself to be particularly adept at resolving the critical issues facing Indonesia in the short, medium, and long terms.

Nevertheless, Viva Democracy!

Is Boediono a Neoliberal?

Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono or SBY as he is affectionately known by the masses has selected the now resigned Central Bank Governor and former Coordinating Minister of Economic Affairs, Boediono, as his running mate for the upcoming presidential elections (photo courtesy of Kompas). There has been mixed reaction to the selection not only from members of the coalition of parties that declared their support for SBY in the period after the general election, but there has been considerable criticism levelled at Boediono from all quarters about his supposed neoliberal attitudes.

The word, neoliberal, is being bandied about like it is some kind of poison chalice that has the potential to sink the SBY march towards a second term. This is fanciful thinking at best considering most polls have SBY running so far ahead of the other candidates that a run-off election is looking unnecessary. In fact some polls have SBY securing more than 70% of the vote if the presidential election was held today.

Even if some of the other parties gain a little bit of traction on this neoliberal point which is a catch word for being pro-capitalism, pro-markets, and anti-little people. It has to be noted that on each of the other two tickets you have men who have made fortunes exploiting the little people and being actively involved in the free markets and the capitalist ideal. Jusuf Kalla is going to get no traction from this.

Megawati and Prabowo are also not going to gain much from running a neoliberal argument. Prabowo is, according to the recently submitted wealth reports, the wealthiest of them all. This is funny in that perverse kind of a way considering that Prabowo's whole campaign has been based on his ability to empathize with the little people, the farmers, the small scale traders, the poor. How does a man with IDR 1.7 trillion in assets and cash empathize with the daily grind that is the life of a sharecropper in the rural areas of Indonesia? When was the last time Prabowo lived from harvest to harvest in a period of sustained drought?

So, what is neoliberalism anyway. You can find an interesting article on it here. Nevertheless, most tend to agree that neoliberalism contains the following key elements: free markets, slashing public expenditure, deregulation, privatization, and replacing the idea of community with individual responsibility.

Now, the case for Boediono being a neoliberal is that he is beholden to the free market and as such a sell-out to foreign interests and must even be considered as a traitor to his own people. Somewhat extreme, but this is Indonesian politics in action, some might argue democracy in action. Boediono has pointed out in response to this criticism that he was chosen by SBY an Indonesian, and if he was beholden to foreign interests then SBY would never have selected him to be VP. This is hardly a convincing or strong argument against being neoliberal.

The better response he has made to these charges are that there is, in any economy, a need to participate in the free market. However, this is to be moderated with effective state intervention to ensure that the interests of the state and in essence the interest of the little people are protected. To this end Boediono oversaw a number of programs that were definitely pro-poor such as the Direct Cash Assistance (Bantuan Langsung Tunai / BLT) program.

However, his critics quickly point out that it has been under Boediono's watch that some 40 State-Owned Enterprises (Badan Usaha Milik Negara / BUMN) have been vetted for privatization. I am not for privatization for privatization's sake, but sometimes a poorly performing state-owned enterprise can benefit from the escape from government bureaucracy. The government can set strict rules to ensure that the assets are not completely lost or that the privatization must take into account particular interests.

In this sense, Boediono is more an economic realist. He realizes that there is some benefit to be enjoyed from the better economic management of government interests and exposure to the free market might provide greater benefits than the oft claimed negatives.

In any event, the claims have seen a heated little battle between Boediono and Kalla emerge to the fore. Kalla claiming that Boediono's neoliberal ways will see the collapse of the Indonesian economy and all Indonesians being destined to become migrant workers in their own country (awesome visualization if you can get your head around it as most Indonesians are familiar with the trauma that most Indonesian migrant workers suffer at the hands of unscrupulous foreign employers). For Boediono, his dig was that a vote for Kalla is a vote for a family firm that is destined to employ all means of state to developing and supporting the family business.

I am always keen for a little bit of to and fro during an election cycle.

The outcome here is that the SBY ticket is likely to offer up a mixed bag on the economy. Specifically, there are likely to be elements of the free market (with the emphasis being on fair trade rather than free trade) and perhaps explicit protections from an over-deregulation or privatization of natural resources, particularly those in the mining, oil and gas, and forestry sectors.

Is Boediono a neoliberal?

Not 100% neoliberal.

How Rich are the Candidates -- Indonesia's Presidential and Vice-Presidential Candidates

Wealth reports always make for an interesting read and is the little person's chance for a little bit of voyeurism into the financial lives of the famous (or infamous). The Corruption Eradication Commission or the KPK is set to start verifying the wealth of the prospective candidates for both the presidency and the vice-presidency.

All of the prospective presidential candidates have submitted their reports. Only one vice-presidential candidate has submitted his wealth report. This happens to be, Boediono, the running mate of the current president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY). May be this is indicative of the fact that SBY considers himself to be a shoe-in for the presidential election and so long as he turns up he will be a winner. It also fits the image of a man who likes to appear to be above the fray.

Prabowo and Wiranto have yet to submit their wealth reports (at least this was the case this morning). Both of these reports should make for interesting reading, particularly Prabowo's as he has supposedly generated considerable wealth since his honorable discharge from the military. Wiranto's will also be an interesting read because it will be interesting to see how a general, whose military salary was comparatively small, finds the funds to establish a political party.

What the wealth reports will highlight though is that personal wealth is not necessarily a guarantee of political success, particularly if one's goal is the big chair in the palace.

Gus Dur Supporting Prabowo for President

Speechless!

Well, almost...but good readers I am sure you are already aware that it will take more than this foolhardiness to stump me for words.

This support apparently comes with strings attached. There is a sizable push for Yenny Wahid (aka Zannuba Ariffah Chafsoh Rahman Wahid) to be placed on the Prabowo ticket as the Vice President.

For me this support makes Gus Dur (Abdurrahman Wahid) increasingly irrelevant on the Indonesian political stage. I am also surprised that Yenny Wahid is going for this. Yet, in the big scheme of things this foolhardiness is not all that surprising. Gus Dur is a bitter man and still feels that the PKB, which was his political vehicle, was wrenched from his control by traitorous enemies and the complicity of the government. He is likely to do anything to redress this wrong, even supporting Prabowo.

Prabowo Subianto and his political vehicle might indeed have some similarities to Gus Dur and those that support him. However, the reality is that Prabowo's skeletons are real and they are nasty. The man may have been honorably discharged from the army, but there are remaining questions as to whether this was deserved. There are still unanswered questions as to his imvolvement in the Rose Group and his responsibility in the kidnapping and disappearing of activists in 1998.

The interesting thing about Gerindra is that the party has adopted some real socialist ideas in trying to garner support from farmers and blue collar workers under the guise of Pancasila. Pancasila has always been viewed as an avid tool to be trotted out in the fight against communism and socialism. Although, it is easy to argue that the social justice elements of Pancasila in fact lend themselves to a socialist democratic platform. There is certain irony in the support of Prabowo and Gus Dur for these ideals.

In any event, even Gus Dur's support is not going to be enough for Prabowo to be relevant in the coming presidential contest. This is at best a three-way horse race at the front with SBY, Kalla, and Megawati, with SBY being slightly in front as the incumbent. The dark horse will be PKS and whoever it is that they nominate.

Hopefully, after this little charade Prabowo and Wiranto can be prosecuted for their alleged crimes and then fade into history.

Yes, a dream, but without dreams there is no point in living.

Wiranto, Sutiyoso, and the Indonesian Presidency

The recent passage of the Presidential Election Bill was likely to draw criticism and this criticism was likely to be from prospective candidates like Wiranto and Sutiyoso. The reason being that to all intents and purposes it makes the task of getting them nominated considerably more difficult and will demand a lot more horse trading to occur to make a nomination happen. Horse trading is likely to increase the expense.

The bill sets a threshold of 20% of seats or 25% of the popular vote. Now, this can be an individual party or an alliance of parties. However, in this dog-eat-dog world that is Indonesian politics the chance of either putting together an alliance of that size is unlikely.

The cause of action will undoubtedly be a constitutional challenge to the Constitutional Court. The challenge should be an interesting one as the bill in demanding a 20% of seats or 25% of the popular vote threshold inadvertently would seem to rule out the idea of independent candidates.

It would seem another former general is also likely to come on board as it would seem the threshold requirements severely dent the chances of Prabowo from ascending to the top job. The photo of the three was taken from here.

A Sad State of Affairs

This is one of those issues where some will agree and some will disagree and some will just want to ask what the alternatives are. The reality is that this is a sad state of affairs. I am still planning on writing a series on all of the potential presidential candidates listed here. I have started with Megawati and been a little slack on following this up. I still have time on my side though.

A recent survey of 1,239 people (I have always wondered why survey organizations could not make it a round number, like 1,250 for example) by the Indonesian Survey Institute (Lembaga Survei Indonesia / LSI) has found that the current president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) has re-emerged as the most likely to be elected president in the upcoming presidential election. SBY has managed to turn around his previous poor showing that saw him slip behind a former president in Megawati.

The race is shaping into a two-horse race between SBY and Megawati. SBY is currently seein his support running at 32% and Megawati trailing with 24%. The rest of the potential presidential candidates seem to be in the "no-hope(r)" category. Following Megawati in the distance is Wiranto with 6% and Prabowo with 5%.

Wiranto and Prabowo both have skeletons in the closet that should preclude them from serious consideration. These skeltons exist as part of their respective army careers and relate to what they knew and when with respect to Timor Leste in Wiranto's case and the disappearance of activists in Prabowo's case. If these issues were satisfactorily resolved then so be it.

I am sure that some might argue this is irrelevant as they have never been charged so this is therefore a non-issue. To each their own. If I could vote, I would not be voting for either. I also would not be voting for SBY or Megawati.

Following Prabowo is the Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono X on 3%. The rest of the potential candidates are running at less than 3% so their chances at this stage would seem to be somewhere between zero and none.

Why is this a sad state of affairs? This is a sad state of affairs because the two most likely candidates for president at this time are a currently failing president and the immediate past president who also failed.

I am sure that with the quaity on offer there is likely to be a big push for and from the "Golput" supporters. Golput is the abbreviation of Golongan Putih or White Group who advocate that where all of the choices are poor quality then voters should exercise their right not to vote.

A sad state of affairs.