Party Politics and Succession -- Indonesian Family Dynasties

The importance of family and politics in family is something that is firmly and deeply entrenched in Indonesian politics. The debate about whether political parties need to focus more on merit, particularly the promotion of individuals within a party to leadership positions based on their skills and abilities and not their family connections, has reignited with the suggestion that Ani Yudhoyono, the incumbent president's wife, is on the short list for a crack at the top job in 2014.

The truth of the matter is that a great number, not all, political parties are established as personal political vehicles in order to get the person establishing them elected to office. The parties then tend to become, in a very Javanese sort of a way, a personal fiefdom or kingdom run by the families of the person that established them. The family is normally supported by a loyal and trusted inner circle that knows its place and reaps the rewards of being close to the heart of political and economic power.

The commencement of an Ani Yudhoyono campaign at this stage is somewhat crass and way premature. The reality is that the incumbent president, and now president-elect for a second term, has not even been sworn in for his second term yet. This will not happen until late October. Interestingly, the Partai Demokrat (Democrat Party) has not been trying to kill the story, to the contrary the Deputy Head of the Partai Demokrat, Ahmad Mubarok, has offered Anas Urbaningrum as a more likely candidate. The president's spokesman and head of the Partai Demokrat Central Leadership Board, Andi Mallarangeng, has said it is too early to be thinking about these things as the First Lady had too many interests in her charity work and supporting the president to occupy her time at the moment.

However, it is not only the Partai Demokrat that is struggling with succession. The PDI-P, which is Megawati's family political vehicle is confronting a similar problem with succession and not success. The Indonesian Democratic Party for Struggle (PDI-P) is viewed by the relevant members of Megawati's clan as their party, and as such they should be allowed to run it or determine who is to run it.

The simple reality for PDI-P is that Megawati has failed three times at the polls to get herself elected president by the people. Megawati attained the presidency by default when she finally did fulfill what she sees as her birthright. Another simple reality is that there has not yet been anyone in the Soekarno clan besides Soekarno himself that has had the oratory skills to wind up the masses and capture the collective imagination. No matter what you think of Soekarno, there is little doubt that the man had people skills and charisma that has not passed down through his genes.

So, onto succession. Puan Maharani, Megawati's daughter, has gone on the record to say that she is the most likely and the best possible successor to her floundering, politically, mother. However, this is far from a done deal with Megawati's brother, Guruh, suggesting he is a better candidate than Puan. Megawati herself has also gone on the record to say that it is also not a done deal.

Where There's Smoke...

This is the sort of political gossip that makes the intrigue all the more fun. This is not to suggest that this is not a serious matter if it were to be true. Rather, can the President really be that stupid to cave into the pressure if it is there? The old saying (or is it a cliche now) that where there is smoke, there is fire might ring true here.

It seems that the rumor mill has been running in earnest over the past couple of weeks that the pressure is on the Minister of Finance (and doubling as the Coordinating Minister of Economic Affairs), Sri Mulyani Indrawati, as the global financial crisis unravels and seemingly unravels one of Indonesia's biggest corporate groups. The rumor goes Aburizal Bakrie, who just happens to be the Coordinating Minister for Peoples Welfare, called and the Finance Minister said, No!

The issue seems to be Mulyani's refusal to entertain the idea of a bailout for the Bakrie group. Fair enough, it is a little bit rude to create a mess and then expect someone else to come in a clean it up with a sweetheart deal. However, the government is likely to buy into the Bakrie companies on the market and make some serious cash on the deal. The fundamentals of the Bakrie companies involved are reportedly pretty solid in terms of the assets they hold.

The problem is that they leveraged their premier shares against a USD 1.2 billion loan. Not such a problem except that the bottom fell out of the market and thus the leveraged shares are no longer worth what they once might have been. Now, that there are loans due and others due real soon, the pressure is on.

Andi Mallarangeng, one of the President's spokespeople, has said he is surprised by the gossip and that there is no truth to it. According to Mallarangeng, the Finance Minister has "the full backing of the President".

Does this put an end to the smoke and put out the fire? I suppose we will find out soon enough.

Good Interpreters and Translators

Have you ever wondered about the value of a good interpreter or translator? Well, here is your answer!

The normal point man for the President of Indonesia is Dino Patti Djalal, particularly when it comes to foreign affairs and press conferences related to foreign affairs issues. However, unfortunately for the President, Dino is down and out with Dengue Fever. Nevertheless, life goes on and with the Australian Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, in town a press conference needed to be conducted with or without Dino present.

So, one of Dino's staff members stepped in and seems to have made a bit of an error in translating the President's response to a question regarding Australia's reluctance to lift its travel warning to Indonesia. The US have already lifted theirs and many think that Australia should do the same. Although, Australia is not one of those thinking that whatever the US does is good for Australia.

Well, it seems that the President speaking in Bahasa said something along the lines of, "Indonesia understood the Australian policy and the desire to protect its citizens from threats". The President also added that the security situation in Indonesia had already returned to normal and Australians were welcome to return to Indonesia. He then further added that the conditions in Bali had returned to normal as evidenced in the 37% increase in tourist arrivals during 2007.

Unfortunately for the interpreter this was translated as Indonesia requesting (perhaps demanding) that the travel warning be revoked!

The mistake is not one that is going to be fatal to the Indonesian and Australian relationship going forward. However, when it was pointed out that the translation had been a little different in the English version to that of the Indonesian version then the President felt the need to send in another of his spokespersons, Andi Mallarangeng, to provide a clarification to the earlier statements.

If there is a need for an Interpreter and Translator, then I am more than happy to offer my services for a mutually agreeable fee!