KPK to PDI-P, Bugger Off!

Unfortunately, it would never happen! But, that is probably because I am not a member of the KPK. If it was me, then as soon as the PDI-P delegation turned up they would be turned away with a: "On ya bikes, and get the hell out of my office!" Closely followed with, "I am trying to do some serious work, you people down the DPR building in Senayan should consider trying it some day...work that is!"

Seriously, the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) names some PDI-P legislators, former and current, as suspects in a bribery case, and the PDI-P thinks that as a party it has a right to interrogate the KPK and demand some answers (and presumably a copy of the current case brief).

It would seem that the PDI-P beef with the KPK is why the KPK made a public announcement that named the PDI-P legislators as suspects. The rationale being that this is not all above board and that the KPK is being pressured, politically, to rush to judgment. This rationale is premised loosely on prevailing laws and regulations, at least the PDI-P interpretation of them, namely: that the receivers of bribes are secondary level suspects and the main suspects have to be those giving the bribe.

The best part of the PSI-P argument for not naming the former and current PDI-P legislators as suspects is that state officials who have received bribes but pay that money back cannot be guilty of a crime. I am sure that their will be plenty of Indonesians who find this truly offensive to their sense of right and wrong, and to the idea of justice. The whole idea that corruption is only corruption if you get caught, and then if you are caught you can absolve the original crime by paying back any monies or assets you received. Simply, if you are a state official what have you got to lose. You take the bribe, if you get caught you pay it back. If you do not get caught, then you just live it up with your new found wealth.

Too sad for words. It is no wonder that Megawati and the PDI-P have fared so badly in recent elections and lost the popularity of the "little people" or wong cilik that the party once so dominated.

Another classic PDI-P quotable moment was provided by Trimedya Panjaitan. Panjaitan suggested that the KPK was being politicised and that the KPK had only named the PDI-P lawmakers because the PDI-P was a successful opposition party, and the KPK was being used to undermine the PDI-P. He then goes on to suggest that the visit was not intended to interfere with the investigation of KPK's affairs. Uh huh! Whatever he is smoking, I need some of that!

PDI-P really needs to rethink its game if it is to walk the walk as an opposition party instead of doing a poor job on trying to talk the talk, and make that enough to sway voters to their party.

Ho hum...

Jupe -- Sexpot Politics...

Julia Perez, or Jupe as she is known to her loyal and devoted fans, is capitalising on her fame to make a run for public office. The jury is out on whether she would cut the mustard as a politician, but all sides seem to think that she has a shot of getting elected. I hope she does!

Having been on CNN recently and the focus of a story in the New York Times, Jupe now finds herself gracing the pages of the San Francisco Chronicle. The article is the same one that was in the NYT by the looks of it. But, when it is all said and done, it is still more than enough to open the door for some posting of some sexy Jupe pictures.

It might just be the breath of fresh air that Indonesian politics needs. It might also be a disaster! But, being the eternal optimist I am going to lean towards election and a more successful term than disastrous one. The down side is that she really does not have a broad enough knowledge of politics and public policy to be anything other than ineffective. However, I would argue, in her defense, that she has already exhibited some real knowledge of social issues that she has been more intimately involved with as part of her fame, or infamy, like HIV / AIDS and sex education of Indonesia's youth.

Most recently, Ms. Perez has been in the news giving the current president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, a serve about the consistent failures of the government with the gas conversion program. Of particular note, Ms. Perez took an opportunistic shot at SBY when a gas cylinder exploded in her home in Cibubur and injured her maid.

The criticisms as highlighted in The Jakarta Globe article show what many consider to be her weakness; no policy knowledge. It is easy to criticise and offer up no policy or legislative alternatives. Megawati, a former President, regular salon dweller, and largely irrelevant leader of the PDI-P (Indonesian Democratic Party for Struggle), is renowned for this campaign methodology of criticising without offering alternatives. It has not served her well as she has not reclaimed the presidency. As a long-term campaign strategy this will not serve Jupe well either.

The reality is that the prospect of Ms. Perez being elected to the local government of Pacitan is somewhat titillating, the Indonesian voting populace is far more knowledgeable on the issues that effect, and affect, them. Simply, Jupe needs to come up with some policies that show she has the political smarts to go with her sexpot image.

Viva Jupe!

The Plot To Assassinate SBY -- Part II

It would seem that not everyone is buying into the plot to assassinate SBY as allegedly hatched by Noordin M Top and his band of terrorist colleagues. Some are openly cynical about the evidence provided to date, and have no qualms about suggesting the police have been part of a beat up in order to boost the popularity of the chosen one, aka President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono or SBY.

The claims by experts in the field are that the idea that there was a concrete plan to assassinate the president are baseless, at least at this point in time. Anak Agung Banyu Perwita of Parahyangan Catholic University has said that the bombings of the JW Marriott and the Ritz-Carlton hotels along with the recent raids on the supposed hideouts of Top and his colleagues is hardly convincing proof of a plot to assassinate. In fact, Perwita went so far as to say that the raids were nothing more than a publicity stunt to boost the president's popularity.

The assassination plot was intimated in the speech that SBY gave in response to the most recent bombings of the JW Marriott and Ritz-Carlton hotels. The recent raid in Jatiasih, Bekasi, on the outskirts of Jakarta, and the subsequent discovery of 500kgs of explosives is the proof of the assassination pudding. It is being argued that the proximity of Jatiasih to Cikeas, Bogor, and the private residence of SBY is proof that the terrorists were targeting the president for assassination. A long bow by any stretch of the imagination. One would hope that the police have a little bit more than that.

It might be a little dangerous to assume that they do.

The party of Megawati, PDI-P or the Indonesian Democratic Party for Struggle, through one of their members on Commission I, Andreas Pareira, has said that the statements of the National Police Chief, Bambang Hendarso Danuri, are nothing more than assumption and speculation. For Pareira, the idea that Top is now targeting the president signifies a major shift in the manner in which Top's organization is operating. Top and his band of terrorist cohorts have traditionally targeted western interests.

Putting the assassination plots into perspective. Thomas Belfield has a good piece about the attempts on Soekarno throughout his time as leader of the nation.

Party Politics and Succession -- Indonesian Family Dynasties

The importance of family and politics in family is something that is firmly and deeply entrenched in Indonesian politics. The debate about whether political parties need to focus more on merit, particularly the promotion of individuals within a party to leadership positions based on their skills and abilities and not their family connections, has reignited with the suggestion that Ani Yudhoyono, the incumbent president's wife, is on the short list for a crack at the top job in 2014.

The truth of the matter is that a great number, not all, political parties are established as personal political vehicles in order to get the person establishing them elected to office. The parties then tend to become, in a very Javanese sort of a way, a personal fiefdom or kingdom run by the families of the person that established them. The family is normally supported by a loyal and trusted inner circle that knows its place and reaps the rewards of being close to the heart of political and economic power.

The commencement of an Ani Yudhoyono campaign at this stage is somewhat crass and way premature. The reality is that the incumbent president, and now president-elect for a second term, has not even been sworn in for his second term yet. This will not happen until late October. Interestingly, the Partai Demokrat (Democrat Party) has not been trying to kill the story, to the contrary the Deputy Head of the Partai Demokrat, Ahmad Mubarok, has offered Anas Urbaningrum as a more likely candidate. The president's spokesman and head of the Partai Demokrat Central Leadership Board, Andi Mallarangeng, has said it is too early to be thinking about these things as the First Lady had too many interests in her charity work and supporting the president to occupy her time at the moment.

However, it is not only the Partai Demokrat that is struggling with succession. The PDI-P, which is Megawati's family political vehicle is confronting a similar problem with succession and not success. The Indonesian Democratic Party for Struggle (PDI-P) is viewed by the relevant members of Megawati's clan as their party, and as such they should be allowed to run it or determine who is to run it.

The simple reality for PDI-P is that Megawati has failed three times at the polls to get herself elected president by the people. Megawati attained the presidency by default when she finally did fulfill what she sees as her birthright. Another simple reality is that there has not yet been anyone in the Soekarno clan besides Soekarno himself that has had the oratory skills to wind up the masses and capture the collective imagination. No matter what you think of Soekarno, there is little doubt that the man had people skills and charisma that has not passed down through his genes.

So, onto succession. Puan Maharani, Megawati's daughter, has gone on the record to say that she is the most likely and the best possible successor to her floundering, politically, mother. However, this is far from a done deal with Megawati's brother, Guruh, suggesting he is a better candidate than Puan. Megawati herself has also gone on the record to say that it is also not a done deal.

The Pornography Bill Passes the DPR

The Pornography Bill finally passed the House of Representatives (DPR - photo) today. This brings to a close the debate on whether to enact the law or not. However, the passage was not without some fireworks with the PDIP and PDS factions walking out along with a couple of Golkar legislators.

The walkout might seem like it was a protest at the content of the bill. However, the walkout really stems from a belief that the procedural requirements for the passage of legislation were not met. Specifically, the claim is that the bill was never "socialized" to the community. This socialization is mandated by law. The walkouts also had some issues with the substantive matter of the bill too.

In terms of the substance the walkouts have issues with the definition of pornography and particularly the broad nature of it. Those that walked out cited for example that body movements could constitute pornography if they offended someone. This means that singer/dancers like Inul and Dewi Persik are likely to fall foul of the law.

This is particularly bothersome for the walk outs when it is combined with Articles 20 - 22. These articles are problematic because of the purported scope they give to the community to play a role in preventing the spread of pornography.

Anyways, the bill has passed and is now awaiting the signature of the President. We will soon find out whether this has all been a storm in a teacup or whether those with fears will see those fears realized.

Megawati -- The Cult of Personality

The heading to this post is probably a bit of a misnomer as Megawati lacks the charisma and personality of her illustrious father and the first president of Indonesia, Soekarno. The fact that this former president who failed in her first crack at the top job is still being seriously considered for another go on the merry-go-round says something about the state of Indonesian politics. That something is sad. The fact that this series is dealing with old political names is indicative of the lack of a platform that up-and-coming politicians have been able to carve out for themselves.

Back to Megawati. Megawati's base is the Democratic Party of Indonesia for Struggle or the PDI-P. The PDI-P symbol is a bull with a white nose and the colour of the party is blood red. The bull with the white nose, I am guessing, is supposed to symbolize strength and purity. For others though it is probably not a bull at all but rather a cow with a powdered nose after regular trips to the salon. Then again it might indeed be a bull and is supposed to indicate that the party is devoid of a coherent policy platform and in is in other words full of crap, bull crap!

My friend the treespotter ranks the symbol on its cool factor. This might be my next post after this presidential series, ranking all the party symbols based on their cool factor. Besides, we should not under-estimate the cool factor because the Indonesian way of voting is to take a nail and stab it through the face of the candidate or their party symbol. So, perhaps the more cool the better the chance of getting stabbed in the face.

The PDI-P formed as a spin-off from the old PDI and eclipsed its predecessor immediately for appeal to the masses. The spin-off occurred when Soeharto in his infinite wisdom through the deployment of his cronies and other sycophant brown-nosers decided to teach little old Mega a lesson in knowing your place in the political spectrum. Some of these brown-nosers include a recently retired Governor with a vision of higher political office.

Unfortunately, the blood-letting that ensued and the disappearances of young activists at the hands of the authorities only served to make Mega and her band of followers look like martyrs in the defense of the little people. One day even dictators will learn that they need to employ good public relations people to spin their stupidity when that inevitable time comes.

Megawati has taken the 27 July attack and used it to her advantage to get a crack at the presidency of Indonesia as its fourth president. Using the attack to her political advantage was a wise move and it was an important part of a series of events that would ultimately lead to the downfall of an entrenched dictator.

However, much of what was gained in these tumultuous events was squandered by Megawati and her party to the detriment of any legacy she might have been able to create. The PDI-P is a party of the little people or the wong cilik. It is also the party in many ways of the marhaen. The marhaen movement is one that brings in the rural vote, those farmers (many share-croppers) doing it tough in the regions and looking for a political party that would support their struggle. This party has always been the party that has carried on the Soekarno legacy. Who better than the daughter, Megawati, and her party the PDI-P?

The PDI-P is dominated as much by Soekarno as it is by his daughter. A brief trip around Jakarta, or throughout the archipelago for that matter, will open your eyes to the method that the PDI-P employs to capitalize on the first president of Indonesia. Just about all advertising for the party includes Soekarno's mugshot. Sometimes even more prominently than that of the current party chairwoman.

The PDI-P is a party that relies on the cult of personality to remain relevant. The biggest asset they seem to have is that Megawati is the daughter of Soekarno and therefore a vote for the daughter is a vote for the father. It is just to bad that the old fella has been dead for so long.

What is truly amazing is that the PDI-P can continue to pull this off.

Megawati believes that the presidency is her birthright and as such this is probably more the motivation for continuing to toss her hat in the electoral ring than the desire to truly help the little people. The party platform is a nationalist one with underpinnings of Soekarno style Marxism (more socialist than anything else and not all that sinister). Unfortunately, Mega just does not have the oratory skills of her father or the charisma to truly pull off a good inspiring speech. It does not help that to all intents and purposes Megawati never has really been part of the wong cilik nor has she been a marhaen. Simply road trips to the slums of Jakarta and the share croppers elsewhere does not provide the insights she needs to make an impassioned plea, the plea necessary to rally the masses to her cause.

The PDI-P could be a party of much more. However, it really does need to regenerate in terms of getting more young people involved and getting them into positions of authority. It is time Megawati took a back seat role along with some of her trusted lieutenants in order that the new generation can take on a greater role and drive real change and reform. My guess is that if this does not happen soon then many of the major parties, and not just the PDI-P, will see their primary vote erode and be dispersed among the myriad of minor parties contesting the 2009 elections.

The PDI-P and Megawti will have had five years in the period to 2009 where they could have carved out a niche for themselves. However, this has not been done, in essence it is an opportunity lost in terms of redefining the party. Megawati and her lieutenants like to claim they have been effective in opposition. Unfortunately, the Indonesian government does not lend itself to the Westminster system of government where there is a clearly defined opposition.

The PDI-P if they have been opp anything have been opportunistic in not missing an opportunity to snipe at the current government. But is must be noted that sniping at the government without offering concrete alternative policy is hardly being an alternative government in opposition.

The reasons not to vote for Megawati far outweigh the reasons to vote for Megawati. Her first jaunt in the big chair was a failure. There has been nothing in the five years interim to this that would even remotely suggest a second time round in the big chair would turn out any differently to the first.

I bet there are plenty of Indonesians that are glad I am not one of them and get a vote in this coming election.

Megawati and Young Leaders

Megawati has used the commemoration of the birth of Pancasila to call on young Indonesians to rise up as leaders and stake their claims to positions of political importance and power. Megawati has secured the nomination of the PDI-P even at this early stage. Therefore, the question is whether or not this is an indication that her running mate will be some one considerably younger?

It is not a matter of there being no young leaders but rather the young leaders wanting to become involved at the highest levels and then it is a matter of entrenched political interests cultivating the development of leaders or young leaders forcing the entrenched interests aside. I would go for the second option as this way the young leaders would start with a much cleaner slate.

I also wonder whether this is an indication that the PDI-P is going to allocate a proportion of slots on the various regional tickets to younger leaders. Once again with Megawati, the rhetoric is good but it is the reality that is lagging. It is one thing to call young leaders out but it is completely different scenario to provide these same young leaders with the room to gain the experience. The proof of the pudding is not in the baking but in the eating. Until these young leaders get to sit and eat the table then this is nothing more than sweet talk and lip service to the masses.

Maybe the PDI-P and Megawati can give substance to the Pancasila and restore this State ideology as a means of achieving the ideals that are contained within it!

Time will tell! (photo courtesy of Ricky Yudhistira / JP)

Megawati and the Little People

The fact that Megawati is still somewhat of a political force in Indonesian is testament to the cult of politics in Indonesia. I was going to work the other day and passed this huge banner promoting Megawati and her party, the Indonesian Democratic Party for Struggle. What was interesting about this banner was the size of the figure of her father, Soekarno. Soekarno has been dead since 1970 but it seems that even after all of these years Megawati's political legitimacy is intricately tied to that of her father.

Is she a legitimate contender for the 2009 Presidential elections, possibly. What is scary about this is she has had a crack at the Presidency before and it was not a particularly successful tilt and getting Indonesia back on track to prosperity. Nevertheless, in the period since her departure in 2004 she has been a sporadic critic of the current regime. This is likely to change in the lead up to the General and Presidential elections in 2009.

Most recently Megawati has been voicing her criticisms of the 'direct cash assistance' or 'bantuan langsung tunai' being provided to the poor of Indonesia who are most affected by the recent jacking up of fuel prices. Her main criticism is that the government is creating a culture of handouts and poor people willing to do nothing but line up for these handouts.

A valid criticism on face value. However, what it the Megawati plan to alleviate the suffering? The plan seems to be provide prosperity, better education, world peace, security, social justice, and the returning of pride to the peoples of Indonesia. This all sounds great, but where are the policies? How are these great aims costed? Can they be realized?

Hopefully, this election cycle the public will not be lulled into this idea of security through promises that are never realized. The little people need serious help through serious policies that provide proper long-term solutions. Supporters and potential supporters of Megawati must realize that a vote for Megawati is not a vote for Soekarno. She might be her father's daughter but she is certainly not her father!

Celebrity Politics

The idea of using celebrity in politics is not a new phenomenon and it is not unheard of that celebrity translates to power at the ballot box. Let's face it if an actor in B-grade movies can reach the White House and become a revered political leader where people still talk favourably of the Reagan years and Reaganism then why should any body be surprised if similar things happen in Indonesia, albeit on a much smaller stage to date in the West Java elections for Governor.

The Indonesian parliament has a good cross-section of the Indonesian entertainment industry populating its halls of power. As Indonesia enters into an election cycle the political horse trading that goes on to get candidates into the fold will start in earnest. In a country with a population of more than 220 million and myriad gossip shows the reality is that celebrities are often much more recognizable than politicians.

Even where celebrities are not on the ticket they are high profile in a campaign as they come out to support various other candidates. Dangdut singers also make a pretty decent living during the election cycle because just about every campaign stop includes a show! The likes of Dewi Persik are sure to see a financial windfall over the next 18 months even if they do not endorse particular candidates or parties.

Anyway back to the point of this post. The Governor and Deputy Governor-elect in the province of West Java includes in the Deputy Governor slot Dede Yusuf. Dede Yusuf is an actor in both soaps and advertisements (his face is plastered all over the sides of buses as he flogs a headache medication), he is also a former Tae Kwon Do champion, and now a politician. His political credentials are perhaps a little slim in terms of pickings but to all intents and purposes he is pretty much a new-comer to politics as a member of the Amien Rais founded National Mandate Party (PAN).

The Governor-elect is from the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and has been a member of the Jakarta Legislature for the 2004 - 2009 period. His celebrity is much lower profile than his Deputy although he has been recognized in some political circles as a bit of a shaker & mover. See, it was even possible to write a couple of sentences without even writing his name, Ahmad Heryawan.

Both the Governor and Deputy Governor-elect appear to be relatively clean in terms of not having any lingering corruption issues and not being "tainted" with too close an affiliation with the New Order of Soeharto. Why do I mention this, only because these two issues seem to resonate with voters.

The Governor and Deputy Governor-elect although not saying so publicly do not see celebrity as a major factor in their victory. Most commentators are putting the win down to superior credentials and better grass-roots organizing.

If there is a phenomenon here it has been the ability of the PKS to mobilize voters and get them to voting booths. The celebrity angle might be a factor in who was chosen but the cold hard reality is that you have to get the people from their homes to polling locations and get them to vote. PKS seems to have done this better than the other parties that are affiliated with the candidates in second and third spots.

Heading into a general election cycle this should be a warning to the bigger parties such as Golkar and the PDI-P that the 2009 election will not let them rest on their laurels as big parties they are going to have to mobilize their considerable resources to getting the people to polling stations or some of these newer parties are going to steal their thunder.

However, it was interesting to see that the President put a little bit of perspective into the debate by suggesting that when it is all said and done they were but a Governor and Deputy Governor elect and would have to operate and run West Java in line with national policy and objectives. This was based on the President's belief that he,and he alone, holds the mandate to govern from the people and in essence they should toe the national line.

Yet, the power of celebrity is this, the incumbent managed to run in third place out of the three pairs running, even though he should have been able to capitalize on his incumbency. The second place-getters included a former Soeharto era Minister, an retired army officer, and a relatively high profile post-army life, in Agum Gumelar.

The Governor and Deputy Governor-elect could not even vote in the election because their identity cards register them as residents of Jakarta and not West Java! So, obviously there are no requirements to be resident in the electorate at the time of the vote. Admittedly, Bandung is not that far from Jakarta, but all the same as a matter of principle one would have thought elected office would require residency.

Election Laws - President

The packet of election laws is slowly but surely navigating its way through the parliamentary system. The most recent of these is the draft law on the Election of a President. This is a law that has significant and long-term ramifications for Indonesian politics. The current thinking sees a return to the party politics of the past which is counter to the intent in the post-Soeharto period of making the post of President one that was elected directly by the people.

The current law requires that candidates have the support of at least 15% of the parties elected to parliament. This in theory gives the smaller parties more clout in nominating a candidate that might have broad public appeal. This is how it worked for the Democratic Party in 2004 and particularly for their candidate, the current President, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY). The Democratic party secured about 10% of the popular vote but after forming an alliance with other parties got of the nominating threshold.

The proposal is that the threshold be raised to 30%. No one party secured 30% of the popular vote in 2004. The closest was Golkar with 28% and PDI-P with almost 23% followed Golkar. It would seem that increasing the threshold would most benefit these parties because the smaller parties would have to align themselves with the bigger parties if they wanted to get a say in the nominating process. However, if a smaller party came up with a candidate that had widespread name recognition and a high-level of electability then perhaps the larger parties might throw their support behind the smaller party. In this sense, Indonesia already has a history of doing this as SBY was nominated by the Democratic Party and was supported by Golkar who then put Jusuf Kalla on the ticket.

Yet, more critical to the debate here is that the new thresholds seem designed to keep the smaller parties at bay and institutionalize the Presidential nominating process in such a way that new and younger candidates who are not affiliated with a 'big' political party will never see the light of day.

Many people wonder why Indonesia is taking so long to reform on the legal, political, and social fronts after Soeharto fell from power but a quick look at the entrenched interests involved in stalling the reform process reads as a who's who of the New Order's school of politics. A reading of the list of past Indonesian presidents highlights that all of Indonesia's presidents since the fall of Soeharto have cut their political teeth under a regime that was rotten to the core.

So, I am not surprised that the parties of the past and seeking to return electoral laws to the past in a somewhat draconian measure to remove potential political opposition.

The mantra that change takes time is beginning to wear thin and it will not be too far into the future that Indonesian citizens will demand more radical change, at least radical in terms of the amount of time they are prepared to wait to see this change happen.

It would seem that if Golkar and PDI-P manage to insert this 30% clause into the draft and then force it through the DPR that the biggest beneficiaries of this will be Jusuf Kalla and Megawati Soekarnoputri...