A Musing or A Ramble or a Bit of Both?

This year is an election year in Indonesia. That in and of itself will either excite people or bore the hell out of them. However, this little rambling musing is about change politics and the "yes, we can" philosophy seen recently in the US.

The Indonesian press and blogosphere has generally been pro-Obama and holds out high hopes that the new president of the US of A will be pro-Indonesia based on 4 or so years the man spent here as a child. The most recent warm and fuzzy moments relate to a You tube video doing the rounds showing the US president showing off his Indonesian language skills.

There are a couple of points to be made here. First, politics is always bigger than the person. Obama as president might be able to influence policy to some degree towards Indonesia, but the question is why do Indonesians think that this is such a positive? There was nothing in the campaign that he ran that would suggest that he is focusing on policy development related to Indonesia and nothing to say that this is going to be in Indonesia's benefit. Second, the love affair that Indonesians seem to have with the new US president highlights an extreme lack of hope in their own Indonesian politicians and the future of Indonesia.

Let's face it, when push comes to shove there are two possibilities being touted for Indonesia and depending on the day, it is either Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) or Megawati Soekarnoputri as the shoe-ins for the presidency of Indonesia. Why is this interesting? It is interesting because when it is all said and done this is politics as usual in Indonesia and not the change politics that the Indonesian media seem to have fallen for with Obama. It is also interesting because if the media really believed in change politics then the media would be excellent facilitators of promoting that change.

On Megawati, it must not be forgotten that Indonesia's most recent political assassination took place on her watch. The assassination of Munir has yet to see the "real" perpetrators of this crime identified, prosecuted, or jailed for their crimes. This is hardly an advertisement for a second crack at the big chair! It is also worth noting that Munir was particularly critical of SBY as being a military man with no commitment to investigating abuses of human rights, particularly in Aceh.

SBY has gone on the record as saying the investigation and prosecution is a test of his government's commitment to human rights and pursing justice for victims of abuses. He and his government have clearly failed this test.

The Indonesian political style of money dictating outcomes is rising its ugly head again, albeit in the form of crass public policy. The reduction of fuel prices is nothing but an attempt to draw votes by buying into the wallets of constituents and trying to avert attention aways from a poor record as president by SBY. Poor, is subjective but when you get elected with a change mandate like SBY, and then fail to deliver, it is fair that questions be asked of and on that record.

The most likely outcome is going to be people exercising their democratic right not to vote. This is known locally as Golput (golongan putih or the white group). I am anti-golput for many reasons, but most prevalent among these is that it is an affront to those who have laid down their lives to ensure that Indonesians achieved a "real" right to vote. It is a sad state of affairs that if among the 1000's of candidates that can be elected there is not one that represents your ideals, beliefs, hopes, and aspirations.

The idea that SBY or Megawati or someone else can reach the pinnacle of political power with a minority of voters electing them is sad. I accept that this is a feature of a non-compulsory voting system and even the grand old democracy known as the USA does not demand that its citizens vote if they do not want to. Yet, that is hardly the point.

Personally, I would vote and choose that minority candidate even if I was sure that they would not be elected. It is important that they know that they have support. Vote for the alternative candidate. It is also an equally effective way of showing the powers that be and those that do get elected that there are plenty of people out there who did not vote for them and place their faith in others.

I am the eternal optimist when it comes to all things Indonesian, and this is no different when it comes to matters of general and presidential elections.

Thus endeth this rambling musing.

Indonesian Elections and Youth

The Indonesian General Elections will soon be upon us. There is always talk of regeneration and providing opportunities for younger, and presumably cleaner, candidates that have not yet been tainted by the old ways of government. This coming cycle might provide a few of those opportunities. Then again, getting on a ticket is one thing, garnering the votes to get yourself elected is another kettle of fish altogether.

I need to state at the outset that I do not know the person who is the subject of this musing personal and I know not much about her, other than what I have read, therefore my commentary here is general within the framework of an actual possibility.

The National Awakening Party, which was once Amien Rais' vehicle for a shot at the presidency, but that never worked out for him, has selected a 21-year-old to head up their ticket in the province of Riau. This might be a bold move or just another case of politics as usual. It is being reported that the candidate, Nathania Regina, has family connections to the party and that her father has been a consistent and sizable financial supporter of the party in Riau.

This is unfortunate as it is destined to detract from any achievements that she may be able to cite in support of her candidacy, as the questions will linger. However, by all accounts she has spent much of her high school and university education overseas and has held leadership roles in student organizations. Whether this is a good grounding for national politics, Indonesia style, remains to be seen. What is for sure is that one can never know until it has been tried.

However, who is to say that 21 is too young to aspire to the national political stage? It is certain that youth will bring a certain degree of energy, altruism, and perhaps naivety that is free from the "business as usual" mindset of many other candidates. Perhaps it is these characteristics that Indonesia so desperately needs when they are combined with a commitment to change and a commitment to see the people of Indonesia achieving what is possible for all and not just for a select few.

The problem with youth is that it is so rarely connected to the powers that be. One 21 year-old, no matter how well-connected and how driven, may not be able to change the culture of politics in Indonesia as it currently stands. But, it is always worth a shot, always! The voters of Riau will make the determination by casting their votes.

I have always believed that if we can send our young men and women off to foreign shores to fight and die for our freedoms, then we can also afford them the same opportunity to fight for us and our freedoms at home in the halls of government and power. It is the epitome of arrogance by an entrenched set of interests to restrict the contribution of youth. It is, and will remain, empty rhetoric to say that the youth are our future but not let them then be a part of creating that future but rather enforce them to inherit problems that may never have existed had the vision of youth been given its due.

To be sure, if Nathania is elected it is going to be a steep learning curve as politics in all parts of the world is a cut throat business. Yet, it is nice to imagine a young woman sitting in the halls of power with the courage of her convictions to speak her mind and advocate for a better future. I just hope that she does not lose the innocence of her idealism in the process.

Viva Democracy!

Wiranto, Sutiyoso, and the Indonesian Presidency

The recent passage of the Presidential Election Bill was likely to draw criticism and this criticism was likely to be from prospective candidates like Wiranto and Sutiyoso. The reason being that to all intents and purposes it makes the task of getting them nominated considerably more difficult and will demand a lot more horse trading to occur to make a nomination happen. Horse trading is likely to increase the expense.

The bill sets a threshold of 20% of seats or 25% of the popular vote. Now, this can be an individual party or an alliance of parties. However, in this dog-eat-dog world that is Indonesian politics the chance of either putting together an alliance of that size is unlikely.

The cause of action will undoubtedly be a constitutional challenge to the Constitutional Court. The challenge should be an interesting one as the bill in demanding a 20% of seats or 25% of the popular vote threshold inadvertently would seem to rule out the idea of independent candidates.

It would seem another former general is also likely to come on board as it would seem the threshold requirements severely dent the chances of Prabowo from ascending to the top job. The photo of the three was taken from here.

Stupid is as Stupid Does!

If this report turns out to be true, then some people are just too stupid for words. I do not know Wulan Guritno other than from the gossip columns and from her appearances on TV and film.

The times I have seen her on the idiot box (AKA television) she seemed to be well-spoken and smart. Now, looks can be deceiving and perhaps we have all been deceived.

Guritno is now suspected of forging her high school certificate. Why would she want to do this? It seems that she intended to run for a parliamentary seat on behalf of the National Mandate Party (PAN). Simply, any prospective candidate must have at least a high school qualification before they can qualify to stand in the election.

It seems the actress forged her qualification. The qualification was allegedly issued by an Italian based academy. The forgery mistake was supposedly to basic for words, the qualification was in the wrong name, specifically it was in the name of someone else (supposedly her sister).

It seems that the Indonesian Election Commission (Komisi Pemilihan Umum / KPU) is set to strike her off the list of candidates unless she can come up with something that is able to stand the scrutiny of a validity check.

This is certainly a potentially embarrassing moment and one that begs the question, "if you had a high school qualification then why would you need to fake one?"

Oh well!

A Sad State of Affairs

This is one of those issues where some will agree and some will disagree and some will just want to ask what the alternatives are. The reality is that this is a sad state of affairs. I am still planning on writing a series on all of the potential presidential candidates listed here. I have started with Megawati and been a little slack on following this up. I still have time on my side though.

A recent survey of 1,239 people (I have always wondered why survey organizations could not make it a round number, like 1,250 for example) by the Indonesian Survey Institute (Lembaga Survei Indonesia / LSI) has found that the current president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) has re-emerged as the most likely to be elected president in the upcoming presidential election. SBY has managed to turn around his previous poor showing that saw him slip behind a former president in Megawati.

The race is shaping into a two-horse race between SBY and Megawati. SBY is currently seein his support running at 32% and Megawati trailing with 24%. The rest of the potential presidential candidates seem to be in the "no-hope(r)" category. Following Megawati in the distance is Wiranto with 6% and Prabowo with 5%.

Wiranto and Prabowo both have skeletons in the closet that should preclude them from serious consideration. These skeltons exist as part of their respective army careers and relate to what they knew and when with respect to Timor Leste in Wiranto's case and the disappearance of activists in Prabowo's case. If these issues were satisfactorily resolved then so be it.

I am sure that some might argue this is irrelevant as they have never been charged so this is therefore a non-issue. To each their own. If I could vote, I would not be voting for either. I also would not be voting for SBY or Megawati.

Following Prabowo is the Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono X on 3%. The rest of the potential candidates are running at less than 3% so their chances at this stage would seem to be somewhere between zero and none.

Why is this a sad state of affairs? This is a sad state of affairs because the two most likely candidates for president at this time are a currently failing president and the immediate past president who also failed.

I am sure that with the quaity on offer there is likely to be a big push for and from the "Golput" supporters. Golput is the abbreviation of Golongan Putih or White Group who advocate that where all of the choices are poor quality then voters should exercise their right not to vote.

A sad state of affairs.

Megawati -- The Cult of Personality

The heading to this post is probably a bit of a misnomer as Megawati lacks the charisma and personality of her illustrious father and the first president of Indonesia, Soekarno. The fact that this former president who failed in her first crack at the top job is still being seriously considered for another go on the merry-go-round says something about the state of Indonesian politics. That something is sad. The fact that this series is dealing with old political names is indicative of the lack of a platform that up-and-coming politicians have been able to carve out for themselves.

Back to Megawati. Megawati's base is the Democratic Party of Indonesia for Struggle or the PDI-P. The PDI-P symbol is a bull with a white nose and the colour of the party is blood red. The bull with the white nose, I am guessing, is supposed to symbolize strength and purity. For others though it is probably not a bull at all but rather a cow with a powdered nose after regular trips to the salon. Then again it might indeed be a bull and is supposed to indicate that the party is devoid of a coherent policy platform and in is in other words full of crap, bull crap!

My friend the treespotter ranks the symbol on its cool factor. This might be my next post after this presidential series, ranking all the party symbols based on their cool factor. Besides, we should not under-estimate the cool factor because the Indonesian way of voting is to take a nail and stab it through the face of the candidate or their party symbol. So, perhaps the more cool the better the chance of getting stabbed in the face.

The PDI-P formed as a spin-off from the old PDI and eclipsed its predecessor immediately for appeal to the masses. The spin-off occurred when Soeharto in his infinite wisdom through the deployment of his cronies and other sycophant brown-nosers decided to teach little old Mega a lesson in knowing your place in the political spectrum. Some of these brown-nosers include a recently retired Governor with a vision of higher political office.

Unfortunately, the blood-letting that ensued and the disappearances of young activists at the hands of the authorities only served to make Mega and her band of followers look like martyrs in the defense of the little people. One day even dictators will learn that they need to employ good public relations people to spin their stupidity when that inevitable time comes.

Megawati has taken the 27 July attack and used it to her advantage to get a crack at the presidency of Indonesia as its fourth president. Using the attack to her political advantage was a wise move and it was an important part of a series of events that would ultimately lead to the downfall of an entrenched dictator.

However, much of what was gained in these tumultuous events was squandered by Megawati and her party to the detriment of any legacy she might have been able to create. The PDI-P is a party of the little people or the wong cilik. It is also the party in many ways of the marhaen. The marhaen movement is one that brings in the rural vote, those farmers (many share-croppers) doing it tough in the regions and looking for a political party that would support their struggle. This party has always been the party that has carried on the Soekarno legacy. Who better than the daughter, Megawati, and her party the PDI-P?

The PDI-P is dominated as much by Soekarno as it is by his daughter. A brief trip around Jakarta, or throughout the archipelago for that matter, will open your eyes to the method that the PDI-P employs to capitalize on the first president of Indonesia. Just about all advertising for the party includes Soekarno's mugshot. Sometimes even more prominently than that of the current party chairwoman.

The PDI-P is a party that relies on the cult of personality to remain relevant. The biggest asset they seem to have is that Megawati is the daughter of Soekarno and therefore a vote for the daughter is a vote for the father. It is just to bad that the old fella has been dead for so long.

What is truly amazing is that the PDI-P can continue to pull this off.

Megawati believes that the presidency is her birthright and as such this is probably more the motivation for continuing to toss her hat in the electoral ring than the desire to truly help the little people. The party platform is a nationalist one with underpinnings of Soekarno style Marxism (more socialist than anything else and not all that sinister). Unfortunately, Mega just does not have the oratory skills of her father or the charisma to truly pull off a good inspiring speech. It does not help that to all intents and purposes Megawati never has really been part of the wong cilik nor has she been a marhaen. Simply road trips to the slums of Jakarta and the share croppers elsewhere does not provide the insights she needs to make an impassioned plea, the plea necessary to rally the masses to her cause.

The PDI-P could be a party of much more. However, it really does need to regenerate in terms of getting more young people involved and getting them into positions of authority. It is time Megawati took a back seat role along with some of her trusted lieutenants in order that the new generation can take on a greater role and drive real change and reform. My guess is that if this does not happen soon then many of the major parties, and not just the PDI-P, will see their primary vote erode and be dispersed among the myriad of minor parties contesting the 2009 elections.

The PDI-P and Megawti will have had five years in the period to 2009 where they could have carved out a niche for themselves. However, this has not been done, in essence it is an opportunity lost in terms of redefining the party. Megawati and her lieutenants like to claim they have been effective in opposition. Unfortunately, the Indonesian government does not lend itself to the Westminster system of government where there is a clearly defined opposition.

The PDI-P if they have been opp anything have been opportunistic in not missing an opportunity to snipe at the current government. But is must be noted that sniping at the government without offering concrete alternative policy is hardly being an alternative government in opposition.

The reasons not to vote for Megawati far outweigh the reasons to vote for Megawati. Her first jaunt in the big chair was a failure. There has been nothing in the five years interim to this that would even remotely suggest a second time round in the big chair would turn out any differently to the first.

I bet there are plenty of Indonesians that are glad I am not one of them and get a vote in this coming election.

The Indonesian Elections

I have been planning on writing a few things about the coming Indonesian elections and the most likely presidential candidates. It is a topic that is frequently discussed in the circles in which I roam and it is a topic that some people have been trying to encourage me to write about. As a matter of fact I was chatting to the Treespotter at 03.00 this morning on this very topic. He has posted an introductory piece here. My concern is whether I can pull off what will surely be a rant as some kind of op-ed piece? I am not sure that I can or that I will, but then again should I really care? After all it is my blog, they are my opinions, and I am what I am!

The proposal is to write a series of rants on prospective presidential candidates. The posts are not really designed to be authoritative in terms of referencing. They will though include things that I have heard around the traps and that are on record (some journalistic integrity).But, mainly the pieces will be personal opinion (rants) as I see the events of our times.

I do not have that many readers, but I am sure that I will undoubtedly offend some of you.

Happy Reading all the same!

Indonesian Political Parties -- 2009 Election

The following is the most up-to-date list of the political parties set to contest the 2009 General Elections. The list includes the four parties that recently won the right to participate after the State Administrative Court agreed with their application that the General Elections Commission had erred in excluding them from the original line up.

There are now 38 parties set to contest the General Election and a further 6 parties that are permitted to contest the General Election in the Province of Aceh. The four additional parties have been allocated the numbers 41, 42, 43, and 44, respectively. However, as they are set to contest the General Election throughout the archipelago I have slotted them in between numbers 34 and 35.

The List:

1. People's Conscience Party (Partai Hati Nurani Rakyat / Partai Hanura)
2. Awareness for the Nation Party (Partai Karya Peduli Bangsa)
3. Indonesian Entrepreneur and Workers Party (Partai Pengusaha dan Pekerja Indonesia)
4. National People's Awareness Party (Partai Peduli Rakyat Nasional)
5. Great Indonesia Movement Party (Partai Gerakan Indonesia Raya / Gerindra)
6. National Front Party (Partai Barisan Nasional / Barnas)
7. Indonesian Justice and Unity Party (Partai Keadilan dan Persatuan Indonesia)
8. Prosperous Justice Party (Partai Keadilan Sejahtera)
9. National Mandate Party (Partai Amanat Nasional)
10. New Indonesia Party for Struggle (Partai Perjuangan Indonesia Baru)
11. Sovereignty Party (Partai Kedaulatan)
12. Regional Unity Party (Partai Persatuan Daerah)
13. National Awakening Party (Partai Kebangkitan Bangsa)
14. Indonesian Youth Party (Partai Pemuda Indonesia)
15. Indonesian National Party Marhaenism (Partai Nasional Indonesia Marhaenisme)
16. Democratic Renewal Party (Partai Demokrasi Pembaruan / PDP)
17. Party of Struggle (Partai Karya Perjuangan)
18. National Sun Party (Partai Matahari Bangsa)
19. Indonesian Defenders of Democracy Party (Partai Penegak Demokrasi Indonesia)
20. Democratic Nationalist Party (Partai Demokrasi Kebangsaan)
21. Archipelago Republic Party (Partai Republik Nusantara)
22. Pioneer Party (Partai Pelopor)
23. Golkar Party (Partai Golongan Karya)
24. United Development Party (Partai Persatuan Pembangunan)
25. Prosperous Peace Party (Partai Damai Sejahtera)
26. Indonesian National Populist Fortress Party (Partai Nasional Benteng Kerakyatan Indonesia)
27. Crescent Star Party (Partai Bulan Bintang)
28. Indonesian Democratic Party for Struggle (Partai Demokrasi Indonesia Perjuangan)
29. Reform Star Party (Partai Bintang Reformasi)
30. Patriot Party (Partai Patriot)
31. Democratic Party (Partai Demokrat)
32. Indonesian Democratic Party of Devotion (Partai Kasih Demokrasi Indonesia)
33. Prosperous Indonesia Party (Partai Indonesia Sejahtera)
34. Ulema National Awakening Party (Partai Kebangkitan Nasional Ulama)

41. Freedom Party (Partai Merdeka)
42. Indonesian Nahdlatul Community Party (Partai Nahdlatul Ummah Indonesia)
43. Islam Unity Party (Partai Sarikat Islam)
44. Labor Party (Partai Buruh)

35. Prosperous and Safe Aceh Party (Partai Aceh Aman Sejahtera)
36. Aceh Sovereignty Party (Partai Daulat Atjeh)
37. Independent Voice of the Acehnese Party (Partai Suara Independen Rakyat Aceh)
38. Aceh People's Party (Partai Rakyat Aceh)
39. Aceh Party (Partai Aceh)
40. Aceh Unity Party (Partai Bersatu Aceh)

The Right to Vote -- "Golput"

There is a lot of talk at the moment in Indonesia in the lead up to the next election of "golput". Golput is the abbreviation of "golongan putih" or the white group. In this context it is a group that will exercise their democratic right not to vote and therefore remain white or unstained by the process.

The idea of not voting, at least for me, undervalues the point of the democratic process. In the Indonesian context it is disrespectful to the many people who fought and died for the right to live free in a functioning democracy. Even if you vote and the people you vote for do not win, at least you have stood up, you have been counted, and you have expressed your will. Not voting for me ensures that the status quo remains and that the system never changes. I see little honour in being able to sit back and say, "it's not my fault because I did not vote for that person as a matter of fact I did not vote at all!"

With 34 political parties running in the 2009 election (at the present time, this may change -- different post for later) there surely must be one person that you could vote for who is most likely to be your voice in parliament. They might not win but, once again, at least you expressed your principles through your vote.

This piece is not a lecture or sermon to the masses, but rather personal musings on why I vote and the reasons that I see voting to be important. It is also a chance for me to express some exasperation at why people do not vote. It has always amused me that the Gettysburg Address talks about "government of the people, by the people, and for the people" yet Americans en masse tend not to turn out to vote. It is bizarre to me that Presidents can be elected to the most powerful position in the US with the support of less than 50% of those who are of voting age. I guess you get what you vote for or more importantly what you don't vote for.

Hence my basic problem with the idea of golput. If you are not going to engage in the democratic process of elections then why complain when you end up with the status quo. I think that if you want to complain then you need to have taken the time to get to a polling station and express your hopes and desires for the future of your country. Golput strikes me as a back seat driver without a license telling the driver how to drive.

Truth be told this post was just going to be the following quote, but as usual I have gotten carried away in my little moment. Nevertheless, this is something that is worth reflecting on:

"Always vote for principle, though you may vote alone, and you may cherish the sweetest reflection that your vote is never lost."

-- John Quincy Adams

Electricity and Investment in Indonesia

Indonesia might be an emerging democracy but for what was once on of the tiger economies of Southeast Asia there are significant structural problems that over the last 10 years are yet to be resolved. Electricity, specifically the generation of electricity is a growing problem in Indonesia with rolling blackouts expected to run through to at least October 2009.

It so happens there is an election next year and it would make sense for the government to get a better handle on this. As is regularly the way in Indonesia the government was behind the ball on this and the tender process was long and drawn out. Nevertheless, there are several electricity generation projects working towards completion and a 10,000 MW generator is scheduled to come on line sometime after October 2009.

With the rising cost of oil and much of Indonesia's electricity being based on generation by the exploitation of oil. So, any shortages in oil supply means that there is to be a shortfall in electricity and then a subsequent shortage in electricity availability. This has led to rolling blackouts. The State Electricity Company (PLN) is begging for understanding but why should the people be so forgiving? Unannounced blackouts have led to the damaging of electronic goods among others. Unannounced blackouts also mean that cold storage facilities have suffered losses in food that is no longer edible as it has gone bad. Rolling blackouts effect and affect everyone.

On a personal level, I have been the victim of the unannounced rolling blackouts over the last month or so. However, in order to try and avert some of the unannounced aspect of this PLN has posted on its website the locations of the next blackout.

The government has flagged its intentions of restricting office and manufacturing hours in an effort to reduce consumption.

This begs the question, how does this effect the future of investment in Indonesia, particularly considering the government has made investment one of its policy pillars?

The reality is that putting into place a regulatory framework is only half the battle. If the government cannot guarantee supply then no matter how much a local or foreign investor dumps into a project if those investors cannot progress to production or if they have to operate on restricted capacity because there is no electricity to power their operations.

The government needs to start considering and making moves towards alternative energy. The cold hard truth is that an ever-increasing population is going to place ever-increasing demands on energy and particularly electricity. If the government continues to remain a step behind then Indonesia is going to become increasingly uncompetitive in the global market.

The government really does need to get a handle on this going forward.

Corruption In The Office of the Attorney General -- Indonesia

The politicians of this vast land have decided to weigh in on the corruption debate that afflicts the Office of the Attorney General. This is not necessarily a bad thing but it does very much seem to be a case of the pot calling the kettle black!

There is no doubt that the Office of the Attorney General has serious corruption problems. The most recent case is testament to that fact. It is also testament to the fallacy of the claims made by the current Attorney General, Hendarman Supandji, that he was going to clean up the image of the Office and make it corruption free. This is a fallacy because some of the Attorney General's own appointments are implicated in serious corruption.

Nevertheless, despite the title of this post and the above paragraph. Perhaps rather than singling out the Attorney General on corruption there is a need for the House of Representatives or the DPR to be a little more introspective and clean up their own backyard first. With a general election coming up in 2009 there are already rumblings of money politics being heard around the traps. It is expected that the "fees" required to get on some tickets is going to increase this cycle. This means that there is still a belief in some circles that a ticket to Senayan is a ticket to the big pay day and a life lived in the lap of luxury.

As I said, the Office of the Attorney General needs to clean house, no doubt about it. But if we are going to talk about cleaning house then it needs to be across the board. The DPR needs to get their collective heads out of the sand and the individual parties must take a "real" stand against corruption rather than just pay continual lip service to an ideal for which they do not really aspire.

If you play with fire for long enough eventually you will get burned!

Megawati and Young Leaders

Megawati has used the commemoration of the birth of Pancasila to call on young Indonesians to rise up as leaders and stake their claims to positions of political importance and power. Megawati has secured the nomination of the PDI-P even at this early stage. Therefore, the question is whether or not this is an indication that her running mate will be some one considerably younger?

It is not a matter of there being no young leaders but rather the young leaders wanting to become involved at the highest levels and then it is a matter of entrenched political interests cultivating the development of leaders or young leaders forcing the entrenched interests aside. I would go for the second option as this way the young leaders would start with a much cleaner slate.

I also wonder whether this is an indication that the PDI-P is going to allocate a proportion of slots on the various regional tickets to younger leaders. Once again with Megawati, the rhetoric is good but it is the reality that is lagging. It is one thing to call young leaders out but it is completely different scenario to provide these same young leaders with the room to gain the experience. The proof of the pudding is not in the baking but in the eating. Until these young leaders get to sit and eat the table then this is nothing more than sweet talk and lip service to the masses.

Maybe the PDI-P and Megawati can give substance to the Pancasila and restore this State ideology as a means of achieving the ideals that are contained within it!

Time will tell! (photo courtesy of Ricky Yudhistira / JP)

Megawati and the Little People

The fact that Megawati is still somewhat of a political force in Indonesian is testament to the cult of politics in Indonesia. I was going to work the other day and passed this huge banner promoting Megawati and her party, the Indonesian Democratic Party for Struggle. What was interesting about this banner was the size of the figure of her father, Soekarno. Soekarno has been dead since 1970 but it seems that even after all of these years Megawati's political legitimacy is intricately tied to that of her father.

Is she a legitimate contender for the 2009 Presidential elections, possibly. What is scary about this is she has had a crack at the Presidency before and it was not a particularly successful tilt and getting Indonesia back on track to prosperity. Nevertheless, in the period since her departure in 2004 she has been a sporadic critic of the current regime. This is likely to change in the lead up to the General and Presidential elections in 2009.

Most recently Megawati has been voicing her criticisms of the 'direct cash assistance' or 'bantuan langsung tunai' being provided to the poor of Indonesia who are most affected by the recent jacking up of fuel prices. Her main criticism is that the government is creating a culture of handouts and poor people willing to do nothing but line up for these handouts.

A valid criticism on face value. However, what it the Megawati plan to alleviate the suffering? The plan seems to be provide prosperity, better education, world peace, security, social justice, and the returning of pride to the peoples of Indonesia. This all sounds great, but where are the policies? How are these great aims costed? Can they be realized?

Hopefully, this election cycle the public will not be lulled into this idea of security through promises that are never realized. The little people need serious help through serious policies that provide proper long-term solutions. Supporters and potential supporters of Megawati must realize that a vote for Megawati is not a vote for Soekarno. She might be her father's daughter but she is certainly not her father!

Indonesian Elections 2009

With the Indonesian general and presidential elections to happen in 2009, and seeing everyone is talking about it already, I have decided to join the fray. Here are some personal thoughts on what may transpire over the coming 18 months or so!

Even at this stage it seems as though it is Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's (SBY) election to lose. The reality is that there simply has not been any new potential candidates come through the ranks that have attracted attention or energized the masses. This is going to be another election in the transition to full-fledged democracy where entrenched interests and the old political elite will still dominate the presidential and senior leadership (parliament speaker) elections.

So, who might run?

Megawati - A former president of questionable leadership ability who relies heavily on the charismatic charm of her long-dead father, Sukarno. There have even been suggestions that she still converses with her father and has sort his permission to run again in 2009; scary thought when you think about it. If she wins then public policy in Indonesia is going to be through seances with the dead!

Amien Rais - Says he won't and he should do what he says! Enough said.

Jusuf Kalla - Head of Golkar, filthy rich, and from Sulawesi. Being the Head of Golkar provides some leverage but it is worth noting that there is not universal support for him as evidenced by the fact that Wiranto got up to beat him last time around.

Wiranto - Serious questions about his human rights record but he has proven to be fairly teflon in that regard so far. He failed to attract support last time around and has since created his own party, the Conscience Party (Hati Nurani). It is unclear whether this is an electoral vehicle or just a poor attempt to clear his own conscience? He can sing, so that is something he has in common with the current President.

Gus Dur - See my earlier post. He will not pass the medical. But he might be able to exert some influence if the National Awakening Party (PKB) garner enough electoral support.

Hamengkubuwono X - The Sultan of Yogyakarta is one of the perennial candidates in name but despite his seemingly huge popularity in Yogyakarta and throughout Java (to a degree) this has never translated into broad-based appeal that would see him as an electable choice.

Sutiyoso - The former Governor of Jakarta. He has some minor party support that spurred him to announce his candidacy for the top job. However, this is yet to translate into any endorsements from the major parties. Potentially a player though if any of the major parties consider him a vote getter in Jakarta but that is hard to see as his record in Jakarta is mixed at best - a vice-president perhaps?

There are likely to be a few other names mentioned such as Hidayat Nur Wahid of the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) which have become an increasingly important political force with a very strong base in Jakarta.

Maybe by 2014 some new younger faces less entrenched in the ways of the old political elite will emerge. But I do not see them coming to the fore before the elections are held in 2009. Stranger things have happened, so one can always hope, right?