SBY and the Photos -- Are They or Aren't They...

Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, or SBY as he is affectionately known, seems to have erred in his speech in the immediate aftermath of the bombings of the JW Marriott and Ritz-Carlton hotels last Friday. The president used the opportunity to link the bombings to the recent presidential elections and then to link his political rivals to the bombings and other yet to occur violence at the Headquarters of the General Election Commission (Komisi Pemilihan Umum / KPU).

It is now being argued whether the speech is to become an ongoing political problem for the incumbent president as he heads into a likely second term (the official election results have not yet been released) or is it nothing more than a storm in a tea cup that will dissipate as quickly as it formed.

It has also recently come to light that the photos that the president used in order to highlight that the terrorists were in fact after him are probably from 2004. So, it seems highly unlikely that the link between the alleged plot targeting the president, the bombings, and the photos can be sustained. Ruhut Sitompul of the Partai Demokrat is unequivocal in stating that the photos were confiscated in May 2009 at a terrorist training facility in East Kalimantan. The president also is adopting this line.

Yet, there are plenty of people coming forward suggesting that these are the same photos that were shown to the House of Representatives (DPR) in 2004 by the National Intelligence Agency (Badan Intelijen Negara / BIN). Permadi and Andreas Pereira of PDI-P have said that they saw these pictures in 2004. Sidney Jones of the International Crisis Group also believes that the photos originated in 2004 and were taken at a facility in West Seram in Maluku.

If it is true that these photos are from 2004 then there are two distinct possibilities; the president has been misled by his closest security advisers or SBY was being a little disingenuous by using these photos to link the attacks to himself and the recent elections.

However, the president is not conceding that he erred in his judgment in making the statements that he made. To the contrary, SBY has gone on the offensive to state that his comments have been misinterpreted as the speech did not link the hotel bombings to the elections and presumably he did not all but name Prabowo as being involved.

I must add here that I am not a fan of Prabowo. The evidence put forward to date that he was involved in the disappearance and presumed murder of activists in 1998 is compelling and deserves to be heard in a court of law. The idea that the let bygones be bygones, and that this is all ancient history and Indonesia is ready to move on, neglects to understand the loss suffered by the family and friends of those who were disappeared. My argument has always been that the timing of SBY in calling out Prabowo, and suggesting that Prabowo's time was near in terms of him being held accountable for his past sins, in this particular speech and at this particular moment was poor. I am all for the heat being turned up on Prabowo.

The president claims that the photos are from 2009 and the intelligence is real, and not some rumour, gossip, or beat-up for the press as being perpetuated by those not in the know.

The debate as it develops is interesting as there are two distinct camps evolving; those that think the president erred in the manner in which he went about this business and those who do not give the proverbial, rat's arse, and who cannot see what the fuss is about. In the former camp is Professor Effendy Ghazali. Ghazali is adamant that SBY has made a "significant mistake". The reality is a little more simple than that, the president might have erred in his judgment on this one but it is far from likely that this error is going to be fatal to his next term in office.

If the photos are definitively proven to be from 2004 and not from May 2009 then this story might get a new set of legs.

Watch this space.

SBY and Extremists in Indonesia

Indonesia will be heading to the polls in 2009 and most candidates will want to be affirming their Islamic credentials and it would seem that a sure-fire way to do that would be to line up anything considered to be anti-Islam or outside of mainstream Islamic thought. It would seem that Ahmadiyya would be a good target for this credential affirming exercise.

I have written on this on a number of occasions. It seems clear to me that banning religious faiths and organizations is a step backwards in the democratic process. The recently released International Crisis Group (ICG) report agrees with that assessment.

The idea that the Indonesia Ulema Council (MUI) dictates policy responses. There is no doubt that the MUI has a role to play. However, it is an advisory role at best and it is definitely not a policy role. Nevertheless, it seems that the SBY government has caved into the hard-line fundamental interpretations prevalent in the MUI. This is not only a step backwards but rather a worrying development that indicates a significant shift to the right.

Going forward, leaders of moderate Islamic organizations have to step up and be much more vocal in criticizing the radical elements. The joint decree prohibiting Ahmadiyya is a victory for the hard-line conservatives and they will be emboldened by this victory and will be looking for others.

It's time for moderate Indonesians to step up and create some critical mass against the hard liners.

Indonesia and Jemaah Islamiyya

There have not been any terrorist bombings in Indonesia for some time. Hopefully, it will stay like this for some time into the future. It seems the Indonesian police are on a bit of a roll and in particular the anti-terrorist unit, Detachment 88, who have arrested a further 10 suspected Jemaah Islamiyya followers and wanna be terrorists. The Spiritual Head of Jemaah Islamiyya is Abu Bakar Ba'asyir (Bashir) (make whatever interpretation you will of the cartoon / caricature).

The police allege that the 10 were planning to bomb a cafe somewhere in Sumatra. The police did not say where, but I would of thought the most likely place would have to be Medan. However, if the attack was to be directed at tourists then places like Danau Toba and Bukit Tinggi might be likely. The Bedudel Cafe in the Chinatown district of Bukit Tinggi has been listed as a target in the past.

The suspects are linked to Mas Selamat bin Kastari. Mas Selamat is alleged to head up Singapore's JI operations and recently embarrassed Singaporean authorities with the ease of his escape from custody. One of the suspects is an English teacher, not that that is important on its own, who is also the chief bomb making instructor.

Police spokesman, Abubakar Nataprawira, said that the teacher was arrested in South Sumatra on Saturday "based on a red notice issued by the Singapore government for involvement in the terrorist network of JI, which is a forbidden terrorism organisation in Singapore". This is likely to mean that the suspect is Singaporean but he could easily be Indonesian. The police have only released his initials, MH, so far. However, the belief is that MH is closely linked to Mas Selamat. Sidney Jones of the International Crisis Group believes that MH is most likely a member of the Singaporean JI cell.

Mas Selamat was arrested and detained in Singapore as intelligence at the time indicated that the JI cell in Singapore were advanced in a plan to hijack a plane and crash it into Changi airport back in 2001.

Although the arrests will prove to be another setback to JI in Indonesia and perhaps the region, the threat still remains with Noordin Mohammad Top still at large. Top is known to be committed to targeting places that are frequented by foreigners and civilians.

The suspects also include the Head of a local hard-line religious group who was once accused of trying to murder a priest in 2005. Another of the suspects is the Head of a local Pesantren or Islamic Boarding School who is alleged to have received terror training in Afghanistan in the 1980's.

These are significant arrests but with the real leaders still at large it is a bit premature to say that the end is nigh for JI. Nevertheless, 10 arrests at once is sure to make a significant dent in the operational capabilities of JI. Perhaps some of the suspects might be knowledgeable enough that the bigger fish might be caught as well.

But credit must be given where credit is due. Credit is due here because the planning for a terrorist bomb attack by these clowns was well advanced. The police have saved lives with these arrests and for that we must be grateful.