Is Boediono the Man for Veep?

There were quite a few questions asked at the time Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) chose Boediono as his running mate and Vice President. Not of the Boedi who type, but rather an analysis of why the incumbent president chose the former Coordinating Minister of Economic Affairs and, at that time, the Head of the Central / Reserve Bank (Bank Indonesia). Yet, the rationale might have been as simple as, "at least it is not Jusuf Kalla!".

That is not to say that Boediono is not an accomplished individual and worthy of the nomination that turned out to be his ticket to the vice presidency, and a heartbeat from the big chair. However, he is certain not to be a constant pain in the proverbial with off the cuff statements about the state of play in Indonesia. JK was renowned for his ability to produce news bites that did not always show SBY's administration in the best light.

Now, Boediono has stepped into the VP slot, or has he?

This photo is doing the rounds on the internet. It has a "Kompas" tag to it. But, I had a quick squizz on Kompas and could not find the photo to link to. But, it is interesting even if it is a photoshop job. It is interesting for the statement that it makes, particularly if you are a cynical pundit like I sometimes can be.

Hope you have all had a good weekend.

SBY for Secretary General of The United Nations?

Partai Demokrat (Democrat Party), the political vehicle of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, is so buoyed by its recent success in the parliamentary and presidential elections that there is already talk that SBY, as the president is affectionately known, is a serious contender for the position of Secretary General of The United Nations.

The Deputy Head of the Partai Demokrat, Ahmad Mubarok, has been unequivocal in stating that considering the Indonesian Constitution and subsequent electoral laws prohibit SBY from running for a third presidential term, the president is going to take the SBY show on the road and go international, so to speak. It would seem that SBY and the Partai Demokrat have already lined up SBY's next position at The United Nations.

To say that this all seems a little premature is understatement in the extreme. However, what this does say is that SBY appears likely to abandon most of his domestic responsibilities to the Vice President-elect, Boediono, and the next cabinet as he seeks to expand and develop an international profile that is necessary for any serious lobbying for the Secretary General position.

The idea that SBY is a good shot at the Secretary General slot at the UN fails to acknowledge that the man's domestic political record is average at best, and he still has a whole term to serve as president of the Republic of Indonesia where the potential for things to go pear-shaped still exists. The idea of SBY being the Secretary General of The United Nations is also going to ensure that the spotlight is fixed firmly on not only his post-military record but his military record as well. Any skeletons that are in that closet are sure to be exposed.

The point though is not whether SBY is a legitimate shot at succeeding in a bid to be the Secretary General of The United Nations, but rather whether this is the point in time to be talking up the prospect.

Oh well.

Sri Mulyani Indrawti -- Governor of the Indonesian Central Bank?

Politics in Indonesia is a strange animal and even stranger are the motivations of those that play. The latest rumor or perhaps a little more than rumor now that the incumbent president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono or SBY to his friends, has said that he is considering it, is the selection of Sri Mulyani Indrawati (photo) as the prospective Governor of Bank Indonesia (Indonesia's Central Bank).

Sri Mulyani is one of SBY's best performing Ministers, if not his best performing Minister. She holds the Finance Portfolio and since the former Coordinating Minister of Economic Affairs, Boediono, was appointed to Bank Indonesia, she has held that portfolio as well.

She is a world class reformer and has made significant inroads into reforming the bureaucracy. She is generally considered to have been successful in her role and been a driving force in cleaning up her department.

Why is it that her appointment to Bank Indonesia is problematic when Bank Indonesia is also an institution that could benefit from her reforming ways? Well, the move reeks of marginalizing the competition and a real shaker and mover on the agenda of reform. A move to Bank Indonesia takes Sri Mulyani out of the majority of the policy areas that she has been so intimate and successful in to date. Almost certainly leading to a waning of her influence in real and broad reforms.

The move is a backward step for those interested in the bureaucratic reform of government. This is not to say that there are not worthy candidates to replace her, there are. This is a backward step because whoever replaces her would have to work twice as hard to develop the gravitas she has acquired during her time in the position. If SBY, and Boediono, are serious then the most sensible move would be, assuming SBY and Boediono win the presidency and vice-presidency, is to make Sri Mulyani the Coordinating Minister of Economic Affairs in the next SBY Government.

There is little doubt that Sri Mulyani would be appointed to the position of Governor of Bank Indonesia if she were proposed as a candidate. Her confirmation through the Indonesian House of Representatives (DPR) would not likely encounter much resistance, if any.

The Indonesian Economy in 2011 -- 8% Growth

The fun and games have begun in terms of promising the world. Jusuf Kalla (photo courtesy of Viva News and showing the current Vice President's plan for balancing the budget) has promised the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin) that if he is elected president in the upcoming presidential elections that his government will deliver economic growth of 8% per year starting in 2011.

However, what is more interesting is the probable means that are to be employed in funding this proposed growth. According to Kalla 8% growth can be achieved because his government would be decreasing state spending (read slash already limited public spending) slashing public spending is most likely to impact most heavily on the poor and those less able to absorb any cuts to public spending.

The second part of the plan is a progressive tax system. It is unclear whether the intent here is to broaden the tax base or ramp up the amount of tax paid by higher income earners or simply better collection practices through enhanced enforcement of the current code. Nevertheless, it is unclear how investors or both domestic and foreign origins will feel about bearing a greater tax burden.

The next plank of the 8% growth platform is a decrease in fuel subsidies. Now, this is always a winning policy amongst the masses, not! However, it seems that Kalla believes that the conversion program from kerosene to gas has worked and that any reduction in fuel subsidies is unlikely to draw the negative public reaction that it has in the past. My guess would be that he might need to think again on this one. That is not to say I am not against the idea of a continual reduction in fuel subsidies, but rather going into a presidential election with this as part of one's election platform is risky at best and silly at worst.

The rest of the measures appear to be linked ot administrative and bureaucratic reforms. The idea of reforming the administration and the bureaucracy is a standard policy platform adopted by just about everyone. However, in the more than 10 years of reformasi to date, it is arguable how much the regimes of Habibe, Gus Dur, Megawati, and Yudhoyono have delivered on reform of the administration and bureaucracy platform. Personal experience on this front would suggest very little at the lower levels of the chain.

I guess if you are inclined to believe Kalla and his arguments for 8% growth then you should vote for him and then if enough people are convinced of his claims then you can wait and see until 2011 and see if he delivers.

My guess is though that people will still choose the incumbent president and his new vice-presidential candidate. SBY needs to hope that not everyone who supports him thinks he is a shoe-in and actually get out to vote. Don't you just love a potential upset?

Fashionable Veeps -- The Palin Cost

Choosing a Vice Presidential candidate does not come cheap when you are clothing a family of five kids and getting them looking all dapper to hit the campaign trail. The Republican National Committee has found this out as it has spent more than USD 150,000 since late August. Now, this is funny in that truly perverse kind of a way. The Republican ticket has been claiming how in touch it is with the problems facing America and ordinary citizens.

The problem as I would see it is that there are not many citizens earning that sort of money that they can be dropping more than 150K on accessorizing. Some of the bills that have been filed in public financial expenditure statements include an almost 50K shopping spree at Saks Fifth Avenue, a more than 75K bill from Neiman Marcus, and almost 5K in hair and make-up expenses.

This has caught the interest of campaign finance experts who have been quick to suggest that personal use items such as clothes and make-up are generally prohibited. Simply, campaign funds are not and cannot be used for personal items.

The RNC's initial response was to blow the whole thing off as politicking. However, the most recent response of the RNC has been to suggest that all of the goods that have been bought for the Palin's are going to be donated to charity after the campaign. In this case it seems that the Salvation Army store could be in for a windfall. It is not often you pick up Saks and Neiman goodies at bargain basement prices.

There is little doubt that the Democrats should get some good yards out of this one as the Democrat financial expenditure statements do not include any similar spending.

At least now the people, the citizens, those that are going to be casting ballots know how much it has cost to keep the Palins looking good!

Nailin' Paylin

This presidential election cycle has provided a few firsts. However, I am guessing the first porn video paying homage to the first Republican Vice Presidential candidate is also a first.

Larry Flynt of Hustler magazine fame has supposedly already shot the movie "Nailin' Paylin" and a release date is imminent. The movie is a hardcore porn spoof of the vice presidential candidate. A porn star by the name of Lisa Ann will be playing the lead.

I wonder if we are going to see a hardcore porn spoof of Joe Biden? Perhaps it could be titled, "Bonking Biden" or the "The Joe Biden Story: Blow by Blow".

Maybe the best part about this skin flick is that there is a script. My understanding is that skin flicks are not usually dialogue driven pieces of art. The script is available here.

If you are interested in seeing all of the promo shots for this film then you can find them here.

Jusuf Kalla and the Toyota Prius Hybrid

The Vice President, Jusuf Kalla, was in West Cikarang (West Java) on 4 September to open a Toyota Spare Parts Center. Kalla was invited by PT Toyota Astra Motor to do the honors and was given a new Toyota Prius hybrid car for agreeing to step up and do the opening.

It has been suggested that this was only a symbolic gesture. However, considering the latest spate of corruption arrests it is better to play it safe than to be sorry later.

Kalla to his credit reported the "gift" to the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK). It is an interesting gift to get. However, in his report to the KPK Kalla was unequivocal that the car would not be for his private use. This kind of seems obvious as he could easily afford to buy one or two anyway. I am not sure that Toyotas are his cars of choice anyway.

I wonder what PT Toyota Astra Motor was thinking when the decision was made to give the Veep a car for opening a spare parts center?

Is the Veep's decision to report the car a sign of the changing times?

Obama + Clinton

It seems that I might have called the differences between Obama and Clinton a little more pronounced than they really are! It appears that there are discussions underway regarding how Clinton will end her bid for President, endorse Obama, and then get the Vice Presidential slot on the ticket...

I guess this ends my days as a pundit!

However, I am reading reports that she is not interested and that it is a case of others trying to make sure the "dream ticket" comes to fruition...

We shall see!