SBY (AKA Save Bakrie, Yudhoyono) & Development...

I have not posted much lately. This has nothing to do with writer's block or similar ills that plague us all every now and then. Rather, it was a conscious decision to hide behind being "too busy" at work to blog. The truth though is more along the lines of getting a little bored with bagging SBY all the time. But, some things that the president says really are worth commenting on and this is one of them.

It seems that Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has had a "No Shit, Sherlock" moment. This little moment came when the president was signing-off on an accelerated economic (or is that eco-comic?) development plan at the State Palace in Bogor. It appears that SBY (Save Bakrie, Yudhoyono) believes development in Indonesia has failed during his tenure because of five illnesses. The five illnesses is a pretty convenient number as it fits the same basic framework as Pancasila or the five basic principles that the modern state of Indonesia is founded upon.

What Stupid Bloody Yudhoyono is doing here is passing the buck. He is the classic "buck-passer". He is the consummate "I am the president, so it is someone else's fault" type of guy. Simply, why take responsibility when you think that Teflon is a genetic trait?

The five illnesses plaguing Indonesia are:

1. an inefficient bureaucracy (dealt with by black-balling the best performing, and reforming, Minister he had and forcing her to a post at the World Bank);
2. regional governments (to be dealt with by removing direct elections in favour of central government appointments);
3. investors who promise the world and then do not deliver (hmmm, didn't SBY come to the presidency promising the Indonesian people the world and delivering it to his family and friends?);
4. a flawed legal system (the system is not the problem, the enforcement within the system is the problem, as is an inefficient and hands-off president who allows the institutions of state tasked with combating corruption to be undermined by special interests); and
5. unhealthy political interests (what the president really means here is that he has been held hostage by the short and curlys by these very special interests, and happily so).

It seems like the events in Tunisia inspired events in Egypt which have further inspired others in the Middle East to express their collective desires for change. I wonder how long it is until the Indonesian people feel it is time to express their collective displeasure at a government that promises much and delivers nought? Maybe it is time that the masses returned to the street with a view to re-invigorating reformasi and finishing that which was started in 1998?

Ho hum...

Sherlock out!

Bank Century, Bailouts, Quorum, and Libel: Need or Diversion?

No apologies on the long-winded nature of this post. Some will find it interesting and some will be bored to snores.

The Bank Century issue is one that has lingered and lingered, and will seemingly linger some more. It is an interesting political issue in the sense that so many are staking so much on "the case" being resolved. However, the issue, at least for some, for a long time, has been whether or not there is in fact a case to be resolved.

The previous hearings on the "scandal" presumably saw most, if not all, of the pertinent information revealed and placed onto the record. However, it would seem that Golkar, under the auspices of the one and only Aburizal Bakrie, alleged artful tax-dodger, that there is more to the Bank Century scandal than meets the eye. Therefore, Golkar is pushing hard for a full-scale inquisition to re-ignite the Bank Century case in the public arena. The cynics among us will surely not miss that Bank Century will serve as an excellent foil for the immediate aftermath of the Gayus debacle which would have seen some focus return to the Bakrie family and their business accounting practices. A diversion? To each their own.

The question then becomes: "Is there a need for the Bank Century matter to be replayed and re-tried in the court of public opinion through a long and drawn out parliamentary process?" On information currently available and the information that wended its way into the public domain the last time around, the answer is no. Any further inquisition is a waste of time and tax-payers money. Yet, perhaps another round of Bank Century frivolity can put this case to rest once and for all.

A point that must not go unnoticed is that the case has ramifications for the 2014 presidential elections. So, in no uncertain terms much of the desire to keep the Bank Century scandal running is nothing more than cynical political electioneering and an attempt to remove possible challenges to the status quo. Here is a scenario that not a lot of people are talking about yet, but they will.

Sri Mulyani Indrawati, the former Finance Minister and current Managing Director of the World Bank Group will undoubtedly be a target of Golkar in its inquisition. The reason is that Aburizal Bakrie has an axe to grind and she is perceived as a threat to him and his political aspirations. Indrawati has the added value of being perceived as "clean". Clean in no other sense of the word than free of the taint of corruption. The point of the Bank Century scandal is a cynical effort to taint her with the stench of corruption that has and continues to permeate to the core of Indonesian politics.

Aburizal Bakrie wants to be president and Indrawati has the credentials to stand in his way. In fact, there are many who believe that she would make a good president of the Republic of Indonesia herself.

But, Indrawati aside, there are others who can be tainted by the brush of corruption and as such "tarred and feathered" in the public eye. These include the son, Edhie Baskoro, of the current president, SBY. There has been an equal amount of 2014 presidential election talk that the democratic party are looking at cementing the Yudhoyono family political dynasty by either anointing the First Lady, Ani Yudhoyono, or Edhie as the successor and rightful heir to the big chair, RI-1.

Therefore, the current libel case being played out in the Central Jakarta District Court has much relevance to those aspirations of the Demokrat Party and Edhie Baskoro himself. Edhie along with Djoko Suyanto (Coordinating Minister for Legal, Political, and Security Affairs), Andi Mallarangeng (Minister for Sport), and Hatta Rajasa (Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs), have launched a libel action against Mustar Bonaventura and Ferdy Simawun.

Bonaventura and Simawun are from a group called Bendera (Benteng Demokrasi Rakyat / People's Defense for Democracy) (Benteng is a fort and it is used here in the Alamo sense of being the last holdout against the invaders that are all around them. Bendera is also the Indonesia word for Flag). The group is oft described as being an ultranationalist youth group whose first real moments in the public eye came with calls to destroy Malaysia.

Bonaventura and Simawun were at the forefront of claims that Edhie and the others were the recipients of almost USD 200 million in kickbacks from the Bank Century scandal. Aside from Edhie and the others, the implication was that these kickbacks were used to fund others as well and hence the corrupt monies flowed to SBY and others in his inner circle, thus tainting them all with corruption.

The Demokrat Party and some of the other members of the governing coalition have been quick to point out that they are going to try and thwart any re-opening of the Bank Century scandal. However, there are a couple of "problems" on that front. The Constitutional Court recently lowered the numbers necessary for parliamentary quorum to be achieved in order to trigger debate from 3/4 to 2/3. In simple terms, the 26% of the seats that the Demokrat Party held in the House are no longer sufficient to ward of any public pronouncements by the parliament on issues that the Demokrats find striking a little close to home.

Nevertheless, if Golkar was dead set keen to tarnish the reputations of as many political opponents as they can, then they should be channeling much of their attention to the Central Jakarta District Court in support of Banventura and Simawun. They could conceivably be doing this out of the public eye.

The first trial hearing in the libel case was a mess. It was a mess because Bonaventura and Simawun refused to enter the court until their supporters were allowed to be seated in the court for the hearing. For some reason this was permitted. Chaos was almost certain to follow. When Bonaventura and Simawun were finally brought to court and seated for the opening salvos, it was not long before the proceedings degenerated into shouting matches between supporters and witnesses with judges trying to keep order. In the end, the judges ordered the chamber cleared of Bendera supporters, at which point Bonaventura and Simawun left the building with their lawyers in toe. They left because of the inherent unfairness with which their supporters were being treated.

Seriously though, I have no problem with supporters being present, but there are rules and etiquette to be observed in a courtroom whether you like it or not. One of those rules is that there is to be civility, which means that the judges were well within the bounds of fairness to remove unruly supporters.

Nevertheless, unruly supporters aside, the case is an excellent opportunity to put on the public record all and sundry with respect to evidence of the corruption linked to the Bank Century case. In that sense, like it or not, the Bank Century scandal is not done and any dirty laundry, if it exists, can certainly be aired in a libel case like this one.

The reality for Bonaventura and Simawun is that merely getting Edhie and his cohorts up on the stand and asking them whether or not they took the kickbacks is not going to "cut the mustard". The only way that the defense will corner any of these men into confessions is to overwhelm them with the truth of the allegations that have led to the libel petition being filed in the first place. This was evident in the short proceedings of Thursday when Suyanto sat in the witness chair.

Saor Siagian for the defense asked Suyanto whether or not he had received Bank Century funds. Suyanto's simple response was he was not involved in the case. The only way that Siagian can resolve this good ol' Mexican standoff is to have a little more ammunition left in the gun. There needs to be a magic bullet that ties all these claims together and proves that kickbacks were paid. If not, then Siagian has a hard road to hoe that is going to end up with his clients being found to have committed the offense as claimed.

And, this is where Golkar and other Bank Century conspiracy theorists can help Bonaventura and Simawun. Simply, if they have anything like hard evidence as opposed to hearsay, innuendo and the odd creative thought process, then now would be the time to put it out there.

But, getting back to where we started; a need or a diversion? You be the judge!

Gayus Tambunan & A Sense of Humour...

When one is facing some time in the 'big house' it is important to maintain a sense of humour in facing such circumstances. Gayus Tambunan, the tax officer at the centre of a corruption scandal that touches a lot of the big names in Indonesian politics and business, in his final plea to the South Jakarta District Court asked to be made a member of the expert staff of the Chief of Police.

His plea also suggested if not the Chief of Police then he could produce equally excellent outcomes as an expert staff member at either the Office of the Attorney General or at the Office of the Head of the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK).

With a bit of luck Gayus will see the inside of a jail cell for the crimes he has committed. By his own admission he is a corruptor. Hopefully, this time he will be afforded the opportunity to stare at the walls for 23 hours a day rather than enjoy jaunts to the tennis or overseas to Singapore, Thailand, Macau, or Mainland China.

The rest of the plea focused on how he was but a bit player, a small fish, in the corruption scheme and he fully supports the president, SBY, in his drive to eradicate corruption from the Republic of Indonesia. The cynic in me says, "of course you do!" Let's face it, you have been caught. If you had not been caught out then in all likelihood you would still be trying to fleece big business using the schemes that made you so much money in the first place.

To suggest that you have now seen the error of your ways and support the anti-corruption drive is nothing more than a desperate cry from a desperate man. Where was your support for the president's anti-corruption drive when you were bribing judges, police and prison guards?

Nevertheless, the funny in the plea was the request to be made an expert staff member of the Chief of Police. However, Gayus seemed serious in his claim that if he was made an expert staff member of the Chief of Police then he would be instrumental in eradicating corruption within two years. Gayus, not only do you have a sense of humour, but you also have a wonderful imagination. Seriously, Gayus, what makes you think you can achieve what so many others have failed to achieve since 1998?

Sri Mulyani Indrawati went hammer and tong to ensure that corruption and the culture of corruption was torn down in her spheres of influence when she was a minister. Her reward was to be hung out to dry by the president. In a shrewd move she is now at the world bank (there is more than one way to skin a cat - that is the saying, right?).

With a bit of luck Gayus you will receive a sentence that will afford you many years to think about your fantasy. Alternatively, you could write a confessional, tell all, name names autobiography about your 15 minutes of fame as a corrupt tax official that titillated the odd Indonesian with your international travel itinerary from your pre-conviction detention days.

Super Gayus...

It is a little hard to know whether to laugh or cry when reading about the exploits of one Gayus Tambunan.

Gayus Tambunan is a mid-ranking tax official who was arrested for corruption relating to the extortion of trillions of Rupiah from a whole raft of Indonesian conglomerates where the Bakrie family figured prominently. The plan was that this young man would roll over and rat out all those that he had worked with in this elaborate scheme.

The outcome was to be the shining light of the President's, SBY, fight against corruption. Instead, it has been a complete farce that has seen Gayus, dubbed as Super Gayus by The Economist, take Indonesian law enforcement on a world-wide ride taking in sites such as Singapore, Thailand, Macau, and even some more local sites in Bali (including a trip to the Commonwealth Bank Cup Tennis Tournament).

The ever-reliable and most knowledgeable Treespotter has an interesting analysis, and an enjoyable read, over at his place. I would encourage people to read the Treespotter's take on this matter and a whole stack of others that he has blogged about, insightful.

The laughing and crying angles on this case relate purely to watching law enforcement and elected officials try and explain these shenanigans away by passing the buck. If there was ever a case of "pass the hot potato" this has to be it. What has become painfully clear to more and more Indonesians is that the battle that they are waging against corruption is far more difficult than they ever imagined that it might be. To say corruption is endemic is, in light of the Tambunan case, an understatement.

Yet, the case is exposing the people who most Indonesians are relying on to fight this battle as complete incompetents that perhaps should be facing charges themselves rather than holding down positions of authority  and influence. At best some of these individuals need to be handing in their resignations en masse.

For example, the Minister for Law and Human Rights, Patrialis Akbar, in an attempt to make himself look good and to deflect any unwarranted attention from his Ministry decides that he must categorically deny that the possibility that Tambunan traveled overseas on a fake passport was possible.

After all it is the immigration department that would have had to have had a hand in issuing a fake passport and that is an area under his jurisdiction. Sadly, as the picture above shows, the man was able to get a second passport in a false name and was seemingly able to travel with ease to the places that the media is now claiming that he did.

I guess what is becoming most surprising to me now is why this story did not break some time ago. Let's face it, the biggest ace in SBY's "war on corruption" managed to spend less than a week in his cell over a four month period. How is that no-one noticed this until now? Perhaps this says something more important about the battle ahead. Perhaps it says something more important about the President and his minions that have been tasked with fighting this battle.

It seems that the President, his minions, and other law enforcement officials can only say so many times that "we don't have to worry Indonesians are too stupid to see through this" before the good citizens of Indonesia rise up en masse and say "hold on a second, we are not stupid, we will not tolerate incompetence any longer, we want change - change that we can not only believe in, but change that gives us real and tangible benefits". Indonesians are not stupid, but this will require Indonesians as a whole to take a long hard look at themselves and say "enough is enough!"

Indonesia really does deserve better than SBY!

What Do The Indonesian Cables on Wikileaks Reveal?

Tongue in cheek...

Someone asked me whether I thought the 3000+ diplomatic cables that Wikileaks are leaking on Indonesia will be interesting and worth a read. My answer, Yes!

No matter what is in these cables, they are going to make for interesting reading. This is particularly so for those who consider themselves knowledgeable on all things diplomatic and Indonesia / USA relationship wise. For those that are truly in the know, or those that are on the coal-face of this relationship, or those who are passionate about the study of the Indonesian / US bilateral relationship are likely to be more disappointed than anything else. These are secret and confidential cables. They will include some nice tidbits and probably some comments that will cause offense both at home and abroad, but they are unlikely to be earth shattering.

Yet, it is worth putting a modifier on that. For example, if one of the cables included a statement to the effect that there was evidence that SBY was on the Bakrie payroll, now that would be a pearler. It might not be earth-shattering, let's face it, it would be an easy assumption to make considering the ease with which Bakrie gets "passes" on everything that should tarnish and sink him for ever as a political player. Nevertheless, it would be fun to watch the fallout and the subsequent spin.

So, in light of the question, here are a couple of choice cable exchanges that I would be intrigued to read:

"SBY prefers to sing than to lead!"

Or, "the 2009 election was clearly not fair despite what the Carter Center may have said in its report. Evidence suggests that on the orders of SBY, Partai Demokrat spent huge sums of money to manipulate voting in areas outside of Jakarta!"


Or, "SBY: can't sing, can't dance, can't lead, all round waste of time, effort, and space. Indonesians are holding out to 2014 believing something is better just around the corner!"

Or, "despite public protestations to the contrary, SBY has performed poorly on key election promises relating to corruption and terror."

Or "the recent good results on the elimination of terrorists is really nothing more than elements of the national police and military cleaning house and tidying up some 'loose' ends!"

Or, "The Minister for Communication and Information is publicly an avid anti-porn advocate however he is known to frequent massage parlours that offer a plus plus service. Obviously, the man has an insatiable appetite for the bump and grind considering he has four wives and seven known mistresses!"

Or, more on TitS..."the Minister for Communication and Information's staff have been secretly trying to set up a session with Vicky Vette to determine whether she was serious about her offer to 'pleasure' the Minister. It is widely known that the Minister has a 'thing' for blondes with big breasts. One of his staff members noted that the Minister was a 'TitS man'. Maybe he meant that TitS is the man?"

Or cables along those lines. I could go on and on and on with the possibilities. I am sure that you, if anyone reads this, will have some of your own. So, feel free to share.

Once again, this is tongue in cheek. No 'real' offense is intended.

Aburizal Bakrie: Defamed?

Has Singapore come to Indonesia? The way of the Singaporean political elite is to sue their political opposition into oblivion by abusing defamation laws. Perhaps, Aburizal Bakrie has realised that Indonesia defamation laws, both criminal and civil, allow for Indonesian politicians to do the same.

The recent reporting of an alleged meeting between Gayus Tambunan and Aburizal Bakrie in Bali during a recent tennis tournament has struck a chord with the man behind the Sidoarjo mud extrusion. Gayus was the point man on a tax avoidance racket that included a number of Bakrie companies. The racket saw tax obligations lowered and mechanisms put in place to ensure that the government lost any challenges that it made against the assessments.

The racket worked well for a while, but it has seemingly begun to come unstuck. Needless to say there are a few nervous people floating around the circles of the political elite as they wonder just how much Gayus knows and just how big the bucket of crap is that he has to spill. This is particularly so if the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) gets involved. So, it is within this framework that a meeting between Gayus and Aburizal Bakrie appears believable.

And, truth be told there would be plenty of people from all walks of life who would like to see Bakrie come unstuck and get shafted in the most figurative of senses, then again there are probably a few who wouldn't mind seeing that happen in a literal sense either!

But I digress. Aburizal Bakrie has decided that the news organisations that reported this alleged meeting have defamed him. So, he went to the press council to lodge a formal complaint. It is expected that an official complaint to police will be lodged in the near future.

The five media organisations include Kompas, SCTV, Metro TV, Detik.com, and Media Indonesia. Metro TV and Media Indonesia are an interesting choice as as they are the media vehicles of Surya Paloh. Paloh happens to have been a past challenger to Bakrie's dominance in Golkar.

It seems that Bakrie is a little upset that his denials of a meeting ever taking place were not accepted as given. Therefore, Bakrie is of the belief that because his denials were not accepted as the ultimate truth that he has been defamed because the media is guilty of character assassination. The man is on a mission to clean up the media which he believes has degenerated into outlets purveying lies and spin-doctoring the truth to turn the public against him.

It will be interesting to see where this latest crack at criminal and civil defamation laws goes.

(Photo courtesy of Antara)

Gayus Tambunan & Aburizal Bakrie in Bali...

If anyone was doubting whether Gayus Tambunan, tax official extraordinaire, and Aburizal Bakrie, [alleged] Tax Evader, met in Bali recently during the Commonwealth Bank Tournament of Champions Tennis, then wonder no more. Here is a photo of them together. It is pretty obvious the man in the wig is Gayus, but the man in the jilbab I would never have picked for Aburizal Bakrie if someone did not tell me it was him.

I guess when your main man in the tax office gets jammed up for helping people avoid their tax obligations then it is a pretty good certainty that one would like to know what he knows and get your respective stories straight.

Ho hum...

(The photo is not mine. It came via Facebook. If the original owner wants credit for it, then let me know, as I am happy to give it where it is due)

Has Indonesia Turned the Economy Corner?

I really should get back to writing more dry analysis of business and economics news and the legal frameworks that impact those two areas in Indonesia. Sometimes, I miss writing for a captive audience. My previous life at hukumonline.com afforded me that opportunity.

The amount of money coming into Indonesia through 2010 is the most to be placed since 1998. The amount is a rather impressive USD 23.3 billion. This has been driven by consumers and resources. However, it is interesting that some are suggesting that the biggest factor in this surge of investment is thanks to President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (aka SBY). According to those in the know, foreign lawyers, the resurgent confidence is directly related to SBY's ability to fight corruption and terrorism combined with his drive to raise the levels of spending on critical infrastructure.

To be honest, I am not sure that a lot of others, who would also consider themselves to be in the know would agree with this assessment. There is no doubting that the Indonesian economy is going great guns in terms of investment. This might just as easily be attributed to the idea that some investors have reached a point where any risk is justified by the potential returns. It may be that it is simply no longer an option to wait and see and get left behind.

The idea that corruption is under control and that the Indonesian judiciary is sufficiently reformed to make business transactions certain is tantamount to burying one's head in the sand. A recent speech by the former Finance Minister of Indonesia, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, highlighted just how prevalent corruption is and how much of a threat it still is. I would argue she might know about these things, particularly when one considers most people believe that she moved to her current position at the World Bank after getting worked over by Aburizal Bakrie and a compliant SBY when she sort to clean house at the tax office.

The judiciary is still a long way from being an organisation that provides legal certainty to business players. Judges are still on the take. Police officers and prosecutors are also on the take. The recent case of Gayus Tambunan and his ability to get out of jail highlights.

Nevertheless, the surging business environment is providing plenty of legal work, and the numbers of accredited foreign lawyers working in Indonesia has risen from 20 to 50. I will need to make some calls and get the relevant data to substantiate this because as I recall there were like 40-odd accredited lawyers in the beginning of 2009. All foreign lawyers must be accredited through the Indonesian Bar Association (PERADI) if they are to work in Indonesia. It is worth noting that there are a significant number of foreign lawyers in Indonesia who are not accredited by PERADI. This is achieved through technicalities as the foreign lawyer is not employed as a lawyer, but rather in some other capacity.

With all these things to be considered, the question is "has Indonesia turned the economy corner?"

Presidential Tears...

It must be said, there is nothing wrong with men shedding a few tears. It is not a sign of weakness. However, when a man sheds contrived tears over the granting of public land to poor farmers, which was stolen from them in the past by a previous government, then one has to wonder whether this is another poor attempt to direct attention away from the mounting failures of a president that has lost his way on the things that truly matter.

Now, don't get me wrong. Giving this land to poor farmers is a big thing. It is a big moment for the farmers and their families. They now might have a shot at some degree of self-sufficiency and make a life for themselves and their communities that they might not otherwise have had. Yet, in the big scheme of things, what is more telling are the tears that SBY does not shed.

The president has not shed tears over the stitching-up of two honourable men at the KPK. The case against Bibit and Chandra has been shown to be a fabrication yet the courts and the prosecutors have failed to end the charade. The president, by association, is guilty of not involving himself in this matter. It is a matter of state and he is the head of state. It is a matter of state because how this case plays out has a direct impact on the world's view of justice and law enforcement in Indonesia. The case potentially impacts upon all Indonesians. As president, it is SBY's responsibility to be pro-active.

The president has not shed tears in the Munir case or for Munir's widow or children. After promising that justice would be done and the perpetrators brought to justice, the case remains, to all intents and purposes, open as those that committed this political assassination remain free.

The president has not shed any tears for the victims of the mud extrusion in Sidoarjo. In fact, the president still seems to want to appease the devil in that instance. So, Mr. President, how about a tear or two for those Sidoarjo victims with no home, no income, and very little hope? How about a tear or two for the children who  no longer go to school because their school no longer exists or is in a state of disrepair, or those children with no school uniforms. Isn't education free through primary school and up to class 3 of junior high in Indonesia?

Yes, Mr. President, there are things worthy of tears besides the contrived little show of earlier today.

So, is it important that poor farmers get the land back that has been stolen off them over the centuries, yes! Did the founding fathers' envisage an Indonesia that was prosperous for all, they did. But, Mr. President, this was not premised solely on the redistribution of land, this was premised on a 'fair go' for all. It was premised on the belief that all men and women were equal, it was premised on a belief that all men and women would be free from the scourge of corruption, it was premised on the belief that all men and women would be free from political violence, it was premised on so many other things.

Mr. President, please shed some tears for the things you have not delivered on as you promised.

Image Politics Indonesian Style...

It is hard not to be cynical when it comes to Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, or SBY as he is known by the masses. The man must be coated in Teflon. He did not manage to only get elected to the presidency in Indonesia once, but twice.

The man has been a failure by any measure, particularly when it comes to fulfilling his campaign promises. With all due respect and fairness, most, if not all, politicians inflate and embellish their campaign promises in order to get elected.

However, the difference is that most politicians will have a crack and trying to come good on their campaign promises and either succeed to a degree or back track while trying to maintain some dignity as they hightail it with their tails between their legs. Yet, with SBY there has been no real effort to make headway on any of the significant campaign promises he or his Democrat Party made either in the 2004 or 2009 elections.

There has been some recent talk of trying to amend the 1945 Constitution with a view to making it possible for SBY to run for a third term. It won;t happen. The idea being that there are no other candidates out there that can do the job. This is all spin and all garbage. There are plenty of Indonesians out there that can do the job and could be doing a better job than SBY. It is an absurd proposition that with a population of 240 million that there is not one single solitary sole that could do the job!

The truth of the matter is a little bit more murky. The reality is that you have to be in with the right people and prepared to trade horses on a grand scale to reach the top. The entrenched elites of the Soeharto era remain and continue to fight hard to maintain their grip on the chains of power. The fact that a man like Aburizal Bakrie can head up a major political party and continue to avoid seeing his family companies pay out for the human error that caused the Sidoarjo mud extrusion is testament to money politics holding sway over good common sense.

So, back to image politics. The presidential spokesperson, Julian Aldrin Pasha, decided to write an opinion piece in Kompas (it is in Indonesian). The title of the piece is "Consistency of the President". I would agree, there is a need for the president to be consistent, consistently good!

The reality is that the president has been consistent. He has been consistent in his failures, he has been consistent in not being presidential, he has been consistent in avoiding making the hard decisions, he has been consistent in being weak on corruption, he has been consistent in abandoning Indonesians making real progress in reform - bureaucratic and legal, come to think of it the president has been consistent in doing nothing much at all.

So, why does he remain even mildly popular - image politics. He is the "spin president" (or is that the "President of Spin"?) He is all about image. The fact that the presidential spokesperson has written an opinion piece that is short on substance and big of smoke and mirrors just serves to highlight that those closest to the president will go to any lengths to convince ordinary Indonesians that the sun shines out of his nether regions (his arse for the less polite and courteous amongst us). This is image politics at its most crass!

The plainest reality of all is that SBY was elected because he represented promise, the unfulfilled potential that Indonesia continues to hold...he continues to be popular because people still want to believe that he can lead them to the promised land in spite of all the evidence that suggests he is leading them to the brink.

Thus endeth today's rant...ho hum!

The Bakrie Award...

The Bakrie Award is designed to recognise Indonesians who have made significant contributions to the greater Indonesian community.

However, it would seem that not all award recipients are thankful and grateful for the "honour" bestowed upon them. The award has already been rejected by two past winners: Franz Magnis Suseno and Goenawan Mohammed. Suseno rejected the award before even going to a ceremony to get it. Goenawan handed his back.

However, in conjunction with the big announcement that Bakrie Center Foundation was funding, and generously so, the creation of a Chair for Southeast Asian Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, there was also an announcement of this years winners. The 2010 winners included Sitor Situmorang and Daoed Joesoef. Unfortunately, for the Bakrie Center Foundation both these winners said they were not interested in the award and did not want it, in fact both stated that the Bakrie's could keep their awards. The award comes with IDR 100 million attached.

The various reasonings for the rejection noted that the spirit of the award was not reflected in the conduct of the Bakrie's themselves with respect to the Sidoarjo mud extrusion. The original news is in Indonesian and can be found here.

Maybe it is about time that the Bakrie family reached the point where they just said, "bugger it!" And, then paid out the claims and had some publicity that could be spun positively. The fact is most people believe that it is a Bakrie company that is responsible for the extrusion and not an earthquake. There is a limited number of ways you can spin bad publicity before it just becomes a stone in your shoe and a sizable irritant going forward. Time to shoulder-up, take of the shoe, shake out the stone, pay the people of Sidoarjo what they are owed, and then get on with whatever it is that the Bakrie's do.

The Bakrie Chair for Southeast Asian Studies...

This is a real interesting piece of news for me. It is interesting because it is one of those head shakers. The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace has announced that it has accepted Bakrie money through the Bakrie Center Foundation to create a Chair of Southeast Asian Studies in Washington DC. The Chair is for a yet to be recruited Senior Associate. Applications are open at the moment if anyone is interested in being part of this. Check out the Carnegie Endowment website.

Seeing this is my blog, and my blog is about opinion, then I am going to offer one. Throwing money at the establishment of a new chair at the Carnegie Endowment does not absolve one of the sins of the past. The reality that the Bakrie family and the Bakrie family companies, and by default the Bakrie Center face is that the good people of Sidoarjo are still yet to be properly compensated for their losses and the harm that they have suffered as a result of the mud extrusion caused by unsafe and illegal drilling practices of a Bakrie family company.

I have no problem with the creation of the chair. It is a positive move that will allow for dedicated research to be done. But, as I said, this does not make right the wrongs done to others.

According to Anindya Novyan Bakrie, head of the Bakrie Foundation and CEO of Bakrie Telecom:


“Working out of the world-class Carnegie Endowment, the Bakrie chair will contribute policy relevant research by revealing key political, economic, and socio-cultural trends in Indonesia and Southeast Asia. The senior associate will address the unanswered questions of the region and become a reference point for policy makers in the United States and the international community.”

You can read all of the speech at the Carnegie Endowment site.


NOTES (these are the notes attached to the press release)


The Bakrie Center Foundation (BCF) is led directly by Anindya Novyan Bakrie and the third generation of the Bakrie family. Its primary objective is to provide Indonesia’s best and brightest with a chance to study for a higher education at some of the best universities at home and abroad. It is a private sector initiative to identify and develop leaders in Indonesia, creating a talent pool that will eventually drive economic development and growth. 


The BCF is an integral part of the established Yayasan Bakrie Untuk Negri (BUN) in philosophy and values. Initiatives complement and expand the work of BUN which has pioneered several philanthropic and educational efforts in Indonesia, including the establishment of Bakrie University, a full-fledged undergraduate institution. All its efforts go back to the deep-rooted conviction of its founding father and enduring mission of the Bakrie Group: to give back to society and build a more prosperous Indonesia.


The Carnegie Asia Program in Beijing and Washington provides clear and precise analysis to policy makers on the complex economic, security, and political developments in the Asia-Pacific region.

SBY Visits Tama Satrya Langkun in Hospital...

Time for some sarcasm (or is it legitimate commentary?)...

The President, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, paid a visit to the hospital to visit Tama Satrya Langkun and wish him a speedy recovery. In reality, this was nothing more than a photo opportunity and a chance to spruik a non-existent anti-corruption policy.

The president came to the presidency on a platform of anti-corruption and as the real deal as a corruption fighter. This was at best a pipe dream, at worst it was a calculated piece of electioneering that found a niche in the voting populace. In essence, this was nothing more than a electoral promise destined to be broken.

Not to miss out on an opportunity, the president had this to say to reporters after his visit, “Whatever the challenges, obstacles and threats that are being experienced by all who combat corruption, this big mission has to continue.” Just reading that should leave one shaking their head going, "whatever!"

This man, the president, has not proven to be a corruption fighter. If anything, he has proven that he is beholden to powerful interests and is more intent on survival than he is on leaving a legacy to which he can be rightfully proud. If there is one glaring example of this failure to confront vested interests and political corruption it is the fact that the poor residents in Sidoarjo and the surrounding villages have still not been properly compensated for their losses arising from the ongoing mud extrusion that by all legitimate accounts is directly attributable to the family companies of one Aburizal Bakrie.

The president is a corruption fighter whose presidential legacy is going to be what, the fact that corruption continued and continues to flourish under his watch. Nice legacy Mr. President!

But, it gets better because not wanting to miss out while he is on a roll, the president went on to add that “The show must go on. We should not be afraid of any threats and acts of violence.” Now, that is easy for you to say Mr. President as you have a presidential guard and a bevy of beefy looking young men guarding you, closing down roads so that you can pass unhindered by the masses, and ensuring that you enjoy all the perks of office. Yes, the show must go on, and thankfully that show is not dependent on you, but rather on the brave souls like Tama Satrya Langkun.

The idea that "we" should not be afraid of any threats or acts of violence is so easy to say when it is not you that is going to be subject to those threats or to that violence. Let's face it, the threats and violence might be less intimidating if there was a real chance that the perpetrators of this violence were likely to be caught and prosecuted to the full extent to the prevailing laws and regulations. However, it has been more than 5 years since Munir was assassinated on a Garuda flight to Amsterdam and none of the ring leaders of that crime have been brought to justice. You promised "us" many times that you would ensure that justice would be done and those that committed such a heinous crime would be prosecuted. So, forgive us Mr. President if we think your words are hollow and mean less than the paper they are written on or the airwaves which they cross.

Your legacy will be as the teflon president, nothing sticks! This is a terrible shame and an even greater disappointment to all of those many many many Indonesians who voted for you and hoped that under your stewardship their lives would get not only a little better, but a lot better.

Swine Flu, Tourists, Face Masks, and Indonesia

The Minister of Health (and Conspiracy Theories and Other Crazy Ideas) has decided that all tourists from swine flu affected countries must where face masks for the first three days after their arrival in Indonesia. It seems that the fact that 50% of the eight cases of swine flu or the A(H1N1) virus confirmed in Indonesia has tipped the scales in favour of all foreigners from all swine flu affected countries being required to don the face masks. This is presumably even the case if the incoming tourist successfully negotiates the thermal scanner (photo).

According to the Minister, this is a precautionary measure in order to prevent human-to-human transmission. Yep, I can see it now, the tourists from swine flu affected countries in the late night entertainment areas of Legian and Kuta painting the town red in their designer face masks. The question though is really one of enforcement. And, as the Minister of Conspiracy Theories points out, it is going to be a little hard to enforce the requirement for people wanting to go swimming, or perhaps eating, or drinking, or myriad of other pursuits that would undoubtedly be hampered by the mask.

The government recognizes that if it were to jump up and down in order to show that it was serious about this, then there could be a spanner thrown into the works of the slow but sure recovery of the tourism industry in places like Bali. Hence, there is no penalty if people choose not to wear the mask after they are given it at the airport.

This begs the question, "Why bother?"

This is especially so when the new "policy" is still unfunded and the Department of Health is still trying to ascertain where the funds are coming from to buy the masks that are going to be handed out for free. The true Indonesian entrepreneurial spirit would have been to tag an extra USD 5 on each visa on arrival to cover the cost of the mask. Let's face it, it is still cheaper to pay the fiver than it is to stand on principle and turn around and board the next flight back to wherever it is that you came from.

This brilliant policy initiative came out of a meeting chaired by the Coordinating Minister of His Own Family's Welfare (oops Peoples' Welfare), Aburizal Bakrie, who said the funds would be made available for the purchase of the masks.

This also begs a question, "Aren't there more important matters that require immediate funding?" It also possibly begs a second question, "When does the Minister think that his family companies and the government will get around to finalizing the Lapindo matter, particularly the outstanding payments to those affected by that disaster?"

Funnily enough, the Health Minister has indicated that she is particularly concerned by the huge numbers of Australian tourists that invade Bali annually. I noted in my previous post on swine flu that it was a perfect scenario for the doomsdayers, conspiracy theorists, and Commission I of the DPR to ratchet up the idea that swine flu was another attempt by foreigners to covertly usurp Indonesian sovereignty through the spread of disease.

This really is a case for the "Why Bother?" files. It is such a waste of money, particularly when the money can be better spent elsewhere.

Bakrie Brings Out the Lawyers

It seems that Tempo Magazine has got under the skin of the Coordinating Minister of Bakrie Welfare (AKA People's Welfare) with a few special reports that it has done on the financial woes of the Bakrie Group. These woes do not seem to be getting any better if the press conference of yesterday is anything to go by. This press conference ended with a call for the attendees to pray for a successful outcome. The reality is that the Group is manoeuvring to put itself in a position to obtain alternative financing and / or to ensure that it does not lose majority control of Bumi Resources.

Bakrie had his lawyers send a letter demanding that Tempo give the Coordinating Minister of Imploding Welfare the right to respond or if Tempo was unwilling to grant a right to respond then they should just print a retraction and an apology. Generally, when the attack dogs (AKA lawyers) come into the frame it means that things are getting a little too hot and hitting a little too close to home.

There is a threat of criminal action which is kind of interesting as this would suggest that Bakrie is prepared to go to court and have Tempo prove the truth of their claims. According to the Bakrie lawyers the claims to date are untrue, false, slanderous, and damaging. I would have thought defaming would have been in the mix as well.

It seems that Bakrie's biggest beef with the articles in Tempo is the alleged campaign donation Bakrie made to Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Jusuf Kalla during the 2004 election campaign. The implication is that this secured his cabinet post. I am not sure that Kalla needed the funds as he is a pretty wealthy fella in his own right.

Bakrie's other beef is with a 17 November cover of Tempo that depicts a forehead with 666 on it. The lawyers for Bakrie feel that the forehead belongs to their client and the suggestion that he is the devil is unfair. For this perceived slight the lawyers for Bakrie are demanding that the magazine run an apology in seven consecutive editions. If they refuse then the lawyers have suggested that they will file both a civil and criminal complaint.

Let the fun and games begin.

Bakrie -- Will They or Won't They?

The Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX) announced on Wednesday (5/11) that they were going to lift the suspension on trade that had been in effect on PT Bumi Resources. However, not long after this announcement was made, and presumably a few phone calls later, another announcement was made. The second announcement was that the suspension in trade would remain in force.

The issue is seemingly becoming less transparent and more complex. The press release issued by the Bakrie Group of Companies suggested that the deal was between Northstar and Bumi Resources with a number of SOEs also buying into the USD 1.3 deal. Word on the street is that the role of the SOEs is far from certain as is any stake they might take up. It seems that the current state of affairs is that there is a tentative deal in place for Northstar to provide finance.

In terms of the announcements, there are relieable sources suggesting that the current Coordinating Minister of Economic Affairs / Minister of Finance, Sri Mulyani, was in favour of lifting the suspension. This would suggest that the subsequent announcement to reinstate the suspension came from someone higher up the food chain. This would most likely be the President.

It is unlikely to be the Vice President. Simply, the more trouble Bakrie is in the easier it will be for Kalla to exert his influence over Golkar. It is reported that the current President ascended the top job in part because of funds supplied by Bakrie (this might explain the loyalty shown to one of cabinet's most poorly performing Ministers). The reality is that the deeper the hole Bakrie finds himself in the less likely it is that he can be King or Queen Maker in the upcoming elections.

Nevertheless, the mere fact that the government became involved in the lifting of the suspension is a loser in the "court of public opinion", as it will be seen as protecting the interests of a cabinet Minister and not about protecting the interests of the State. Whether this is true or not is irrelevant in the court of public opinion, if it smells bad and it looks bad, then it is bad! The fact that the presidential spokesman comes out and says that Bakrie companies are not his concern is hardly reassuring.

That said, the logic on keeping the suspension in place is that as soon as the suspension is lifted it is likely people holding Bumi shares will seek to offload even with a purported deal in place.

The deal between Northstar and Bakrie plus the SOEs is supposed to be complete within 28 days. I wonder whether the suspension will stay in place until the deal is signed, sealed, and delivered?

Ah, must be nice to be the Coordinating Minister of the Bakrie Family Welfare, oops I meant to say the Coordinating Minister of People's Welfare (photo -- always smiling and why wouldn't you be?).

Where There's Smoke...

This is the sort of political gossip that makes the intrigue all the more fun. This is not to suggest that this is not a serious matter if it were to be true. Rather, can the President really be that stupid to cave into the pressure if it is there? The old saying (or is it a cliche now) that where there is smoke, there is fire might ring true here.

It seems that the rumor mill has been running in earnest over the past couple of weeks that the pressure is on the Minister of Finance (and doubling as the Coordinating Minister of Economic Affairs), Sri Mulyani Indrawati, as the global financial crisis unravels and seemingly unravels one of Indonesia's biggest corporate groups. The rumor goes Aburizal Bakrie, who just happens to be the Coordinating Minister for Peoples Welfare, called and the Finance Minister said, No!

The issue seems to be Mulyani's refusal to entertain the idea of a bailout for the Bakrie group. Fair enough, it is a little bit rude to create a mess and then expect someone else to come in a clean it up with a sweetheart deal. However, the government is likely to buy into the Bakrie companies on the market and make some serious cash on the deal. The fundamentals of the Bakrie companies involved are reportedly pretty solid in terms of the assets they hold.

The problem is that they leveraged their premier shares against a USD 1.2 billion loan. Not such a problem except that the bottom fell out of the market and thus the leveraged shares are no longer worth what they once might have been. Now, that there are loans due and others due real soon, the pressure is on.

Andi Mallarangeng, one of the President's spokespeople, has said he is surprised by the gossip and that there is no truth to it. According to Mallarangeng, the Finance Minister has "the full backing of the President".

Does this put an end to the smoke and put out the fire? I suppose we will find out soon enough.

The Bakrie Bailout

The title of this post is perhaps misleading, then again for those in the know perhaps not so misleading. I do not claim to be in the know but I do not mind engaging in a bit of wild speculation. Bad of me I know.

The mainstream media is now reporting that The Minister of State Owned Enterprises, Sofyan Djalil (pictured), is supporting the idea of State Owned Enterprises buying into the Bakrie Group, specifically PT Bumi Resources and PT Bayan Resources. The shares are certainly not at rock bottom prices. The reality is that a number of Bakrie companies are in trouble either with debts due or debts falling due between now and April 2009.

The fact a Bakrie company defaulted on a loan led to some wild speculation that saw other Bakrie companies hit in a rapid sell-off of Bakrie stock. It is reported that the Bakrie Group accounts for somewhere between 8% - 10% of the Indonesian Stock Exchange. So, any dramatic fall in the Bakrie Group fortunes is going to have a significant impact on the market. And, so it did last week when Bakrie companies lost some 41% of their value in a matter of days.

According to Djalil, both Bumi Resources and Bayan Resources have pretty solid future prospects. Maybe this is true, however if the State Owned Enterprises are going to snap-up Bakrie shares then they are also going to be taking on some debt.

Interestingly, the word is that the Bakrie Group has approached the Stock Exchange with the idea of suspending further trade in its shares until they get on top of this mess and make some decisions. Indonesian law would allow the Stock Exchange the discretionary power to permit a suspension. Yet, if it did then there might be some serious questions on the fairness of the suspension when there are other Indonesian companies in equally perilous financial positions. My guess is that the Stock Exchange will entertain the approach but will make it known that they will not allow the suspension to happen. I would also guess that the Bakrie Group will then deny ever having contemplated such an idea. Simply, to grant such a request would be sure to be interpreted as providing a get out of jail free pass (well, at least at a much reduced cost).

The idea of selling the shares to SOEs is probably a more attractive option to the Bakrie Group than selling them off to a competitor. The belief being that if in the future the Group was to raise the capital elsewhere to pull them out of their credit hole then they would be able to re-acquire the shares back from the SOE. This might sound good in theory however it sounds a little more complex in reality. This is notwithstanding the "court of public opinion" that is likely to frown on any inkling of favourable treatment to the countries richest man (if he still is after last week's mauling is unclear).

I would expect that any transaction that sees a SOE buying into the companies of the family of the Coordinating Minister of People's Welfare should come in for some additional and special scrutiny to ensure that any accusations of favouritism can be quickly snuffed out.

Indonesia's Rich List

With pending recessions throughout the world and economic hardships facing many people, it is with that in mind that I make this post. The most recent edition of Globe Asia, June 2008, is a Special Edition focusing on Indonesia's 150 richest people.

The net wealth of the 150 richest has risen from USD 46.6 billion to USD 69.3 billion with an average wealth rising from USD 311 million to USD 488 million and the average age of the list has risen from 43 to 44.

The most obscene, yes obscene, mover on the list is the now Coordinating Minister of Peoples' Welfare, one Aburizal Bakrie, who has seen his family's wealth jump from a meagre USD 1.05 billion to a much more staggering figure of USD 9.2 billion. Much of this is the result of growth in the energy sector and the demand for commodities. Yet, it is worth noting that he also has extensive interests in property and telecommunications. Why is this obscene? He is the Coordinating Minister of Peoples' Welfare and his welfare is so much better than everyone else's. I do not begrudge rewards for people who work hard and I am sure that he makes his contributions to charity and the like.

Nevertheless, to see such a huge jump in wealth while the people of Sidoarjo continue to be shuffled about from one place to another and never being paid the compensation that they are due for the catastrophe that is the mud flow, seems to me to be just plain wrong. By most accounts one of the Bakrie family companies is responsible and the Presidential Regulation seems to suggest that the Bakrie family company is to blame and has apportioned blame to them (whether a Presidential Regulation can do this is a different argument for a different post). Yet, it seems that the Bakrie's are having trouble meeting the compensation payment schedules as mandated under the Regulation.

I have to say this is obscene because the man and his family are making their wealth predominantly exploiting Indonesian resources, natural and human, yet despite assurances to the contrary, do not seem to be able to make reparations to those that have suffered in the Bakrie Family's pursuit for cash!

The other notable entry for my mind on this list is Hutomo Mandala Putra, or Tommy Soeharto, at No. 61 with a net worth of USD 253 million. This is not bad for a fella who is allegedly corrupt, who is a convicted felon as a result of his ordering the assassination of a Supreme Court judge hearing one of his cases, and failed rally driver (don't know why the last one is important in terms of wealth but what the hey). If there is anything positive to say about the Soeharto children it is that the rich list clearly highlights they are no longer holders of influence and riches like they once were. However, maybe all the wealth is still stashed away overseas in secret bank accounts -- my guess is that the family will always be comfortably filthy rich!

There will be more to follow on this rich list and what it means as I see it (not that any of you care how I see it -- it's my blog so I can do what I want, right?)