What Do The Indonesian Cables on Wikileaks Reveal?

Tongue in cheek...

Someone asked me whether I thought the 3000+ diplomatic cables that Wikileaks are leaking on Indonesia will be interesting and worth a read. My answer, Yes!

No matter what is in these cables, they are going to make for interesting reading. This is particularly so for those who consider themselves knowledgeable on all things diplomatic and Indonesia / USA relationship wise. For those that are truly in the know, or those that are on the coal-face of this relationship, or those who are passionate about the study of the Indonesian / US bilateral relationship are likely to be more disappointed than anything else. These are secret and confidential cables. They will include some nice tidbits and probably some comments that will cause offense both at home and abroad, but they are unlikely to be earth shattering.

Yet, it is worth putting a modifier on that. For example, if one of the cables included a statement to the effect that there was evidence that SBY was on the Bakrie payroll, now that would be a pearler. It might not be earth-shattering, let's face it, it would be an easy assumption to make considering the ease with which Bakrie gets "passes" on everything that should tarnish and sink him for ever as a political player. Nevertheless, it would be fun to watch the fallout and the subsequent spin.

So, in light of the question, here are a couple of choice cable exchanges that I would be intrigued to read:

"SBY prefers to sing than to lead!"

Or, "the 2009 election was clearly not fair despite what the Carter Center may have said in its report. Evidence suggests that on the orders of SBY, Partai Demokrat spent huge sums of money to manipulate voting in areas outside of Jakarta!"


Or, "SBY: can't sing, can't dance, can't lead, all round waste of time, effort, and space. Indonesians are holding out to 2014 believing something is better just around the corner!"

Or, "despite public protestations to the contrary, SBY has performed poorly on key election promises relating to corruption and terror."

Or "the recent good results on the elimination of terrorists is really nothing more than elements of the national police and military cleaning house and tidying up some 'loose' ends!"

Or, "The Minister for Communication and Information is publicly an avid anti-porn advocate however he is known to frequent massage parlours that offer a plus plus service. Obviously, the man has an insatiable appetite for the bump and grind considering he has four wives and seven known mistresses!"

Or, more on TitS..."the Minister for Communication and Information's staff have been secretly trying to set up a session with Vicky Vette to determine whether she was serious about her offer to 'pleasure' the Minister. It is widely known that the Minister has a 'thing' for blondes with big breasts. One of his staff members noted that the Minister was a 'TitS man'. Maybe he meant that TitS is the man?"

Or cables along those lines. I could go on and on and on with the possibilities. I am sure that you, if anyone reads this, will have some of your own. So, feel free to share.

Once again, this is tongue in cheek. No 'real' offense is intended.

Downfall Parody Videos -- The Australian Election 2010...

YouTube has been making a concerted effort to remove all the Downfall parody videos at the request of the German copyright holder of the original film, Der Untergang. However, my guess is that they are going to keep popping up and then disappearing. This one on the 2010 Australian Election this past Saturday (21 August 2010) will probably disappear as well.

Some of the parodies have been offensive. However, not all of them. Arguments that using Hitler as a backdrop to anything means it has to bad sometimes misses the point of spoofing a really obscure film about a homicidal tyrant by filtering the day's news through subtitles laid into the clip. The Huffington Post has a good read on the Downfall parody phenomenon.

So, enjoy it while you can.

The Leaders' Debate -- Gillard Just...

The "Great Debate", or the not so great debate depending on your interest in Australian politics, was won just by Julia Gillard. Tony Abbott put up a much better showing than many thought possible. Nevertheless, the most illuminating moments associated with this debate was that there were no illuminating moments. The reality is that neither Gillard or Abbott offered up anything substantial from what we already know about them.

The debate was the same, but the worms were different. Channel 9 was running a worm that suggests Gillard comprehensively trounced Abbott by some 63% to 37%. The Channel 7 worm had it much closer at 53% to 47%. Personally, I think the Channel 7 worm had it pretty much right. Interestingly, both worms were true to expected form and fell along gender lines. Most women going for the female Prime Minister and most men going for the male leader of the Opposition.

Neither leader was able to deliver a significant blow. In fact, both came across as overly cautious and unwilling to make any big statements about themselves, their beliefs, or what real changes the Australian people will enjoy under either a Labor or Liberal (Coalition) government. Maybe the lack of a third party option in the debate, like the Greens, might inspire people to seek out that option prior to the election. The Greens under Bob Brown have seemingly become an increasingly attractive option for those disillusioned with the main parties.

Yet, one of the most significant things for Labor to consider is the response to Gillard's failure to be specific on the ouster of the former PM, Kevin Rudd. The worms tracked instantaneously lower suggesting that people have an issue with the way that the leadership was spilled. Maybe the pencil pushers over at Labor Headquarters will need to put some spin on this and get it out into the electorate. The leadership spill might be better confronted head on and called as it was. Sometimes the truth will set you free.

The thing that stuck me about the debate, and to which I alluded earlier, is that there is not a whole lot of difference in the policies of either party or leader. This is probably more of a problem for the Liberal Coalition than it is for the incumbent Labor Government. The reason is a simple one, why change governments if there is not going to be any real change in either policy or direction? If it is going to be the same old, same old then perhaps it is better the devil you know than the devil you don't.

It is too bad that this seems to have been a one-off debate. Another debate or two might have been worth a look-see.

"Break Out" -- Micheal Mackinnon & Iain Croucher...

This is something that Dilligaf posted on his Facebook Wall and I discovered it there. The video embedded here is available on YouTube.

The video "Break Out" is a Micheal Mackinnon and Iain Croucher production and is apparently produced on a low budget. The video is encouraging the British electorate to reject the British National Party (BNP). It is part of the "Hope Not Hate - Stop the BNP" campaign.

The BNP's leader, Nick Griffin, has won a seat in the European Parliament which should make for some interesting viewing. The BNP is a far-right political party and there is active debate and argument, often quite heated, about whether the BNP is racist (you can follow the links here).

I found the video interesting and disturbing at the same time. The interesting angle was the idea that Arabs and Jews can work together where there is common ground, in this case survival or a common enemy. However, to be successful in thwarting the far-right agenda the base needs to be so much broader than just Arabs and Jews. It is disturbing because Mackinnon and Croucher felt there was a need to make the video in the first place.

Break Out starts off fairly innocuously, but the injection of the neo-Nazi skinheads into the equation does make for some intense viewing.

SBY's Speech in the Aftermath of the 17 July 2009 Bombings

The translation that follows has been lifted / borrowed from The Jakarta Globe (it is good enough for the comments that I want to make on it, and besides I am too lazy to do it myself so it would be a bit rude to criticize it when that is the case :D). I am not a big fan of the incumbent president, and now president-elect to a second term, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono or SBY. This lack of enthusiasm clearly puts me in the minority according to the quick counts in the post-election wrap-up and the surveys leading into the most recent presidential election.

I will insert my comments in square brackets [] and in this bold.

Assalamu’alaikum warahmatullahi wabarakatuh,

Greetings to everyone,

My fellow countrymen and women, to all Indonesians that I love, wherever you are. Today is a black dot in our history [as a nation]. Once again, there has been an attack or a bombing committed by terrorists in Jakarta. It is suspected to have been committed by a group of terrorists, although it may not necessarily be the same terrorism network that we have realized cause nothing but sufferings and troubles that all Indonesians have had to bear. [Expected start]

This barbaric act has brought about innocent casualties as well. Therefore, on this opportunity, on behalf of the country and the government, and as a person, I would like to express my heartfelt condolences to the families of the victims. To all the victims, our thoughts and prayers are with you. [Expected - violence is not the answer. Not only is the act barbaric it is wrong on all fronts and grounds. Nobody with a sane mind can condone the killings of innocents]

My fellow countrymen and women, the inhuman and thoughtless bombing occurred just when our nation had held its presidential election and while the General Elections Commission (KPU) is still tallying the votes. It has greatly disrupted the security and peace of the country while people want a safe, peaceful and conducive situation. People want the conclusion of the 2009 General Elections to be the starting point for us to unite and rebuild our country for the sake of all Indonesian people. [Some have argued that the speech does not politicize the bombing and has not sort to capitalize for personal popularity the tragedy of these bombings.

There has been much made of the possibility that Prabowo or someone associated with one of the campaigns is responsible for the bombings as a means of undermining and destabilizing SBY. This seems highly unlikely, but not outside the realm of possibility. Nevertheless, the question remains why raise the spectre of this kind of evil prior to the inevitable investigation being completed. The intent seems clear to me that the president is trying to link the bombings to the election outcome. A little premature, even if ultimately proved true.

Interestingly, if this, the election and bombing link, was to prove true, then all this discussion about Jemaah Islamiyya, Noordin M. Top, splinter groups, and the like, is then way off base. This is extreme domestic political violence and not terrorism in the traditional meaning of the word or at least how many viewed terrorism before 9/11.

Another interesting angle getting some airplay is that this was not terrorism or political, but rather a dispute about local control of resources, particularly in Papua. Specifically, the suggestion is that the round table hosted by James Castle of CastleAsia was targeted because of the executives who were to attend. If this turns out to be true then the attack was brazen and audacious. The idea that the bombings are in some way related to the recent violence and killings in Papua in and around the Freeport concession is one for the conspiracy theorists. Although conspiracy theorists can give any piece of speculation enough legs to run with and some people will believe it -- 9/11 and the CIA and FBI involvement in bringing down the World Trade Centers.]

The bombing was committed when people were still concerned with political brouhaha at the elite level, also — as I have been noticing everyday — with provocative remarks that maintain heated and hostile circumstances, which is not the aspiration of the people who fulfilled their political duties a few weeks ago. [Seems to be a dig at Prabowo. Prabowo has been vocal in his public criticisms of the electoral process, particularly the quick counts. This part of the speech says to the other two campaigns that it is time to suck it up and admit that you lost, the people have spoken and spoken decisively, they do not want you, they want me. So, be good sports and good losers and go home!]

My fellow countrymen and women, I believe almost all of us feel sympathy and sadness, and cry inside, as I do now. Indeed, there are few people who are laughing and screaming in delight, satisfying their maddening anger. These few people, heartless and careless for the destruction of our country from terrorism, do not care about the vast implications of their brutality toward our economy, business climate, tourism, image in the world and many other factors. Presently, my brothers and sisters, beside us, the government is performing emergency response measures to treat the victims of the bombing. An investigation is on the way as well. I have received a preliminary report of the ongoing investigation. After I read the report, I instructed the Chief of Police, the National Intelligence Agency and other related state institutions to conduct a proper and thorough investigation and to bring the perpetrators to justice. [A little bit cryptic for me.

Besides, the Chief of Police, the National Intelligence Agency (BIN), and other related State Institutions have not been able to bring the perpetrators of the Munir assassination to justice. So, the best bet here is that a few low-ranking goons will be "caught", paraded about, tried, convicted, and executed, while the elites to which SBY referred to earlier will continue to go on their respective merry ways.]

I believe, as we have discovered before, that the perpetrators and the people who masterminded this terror will be apprehended and we will prosecute them under the law. I have instructed law enforcers to prosecute anyone involved. Whoever he or she is, from whatever political rank and background. [see the above comment. Not likely!]

This morning, I have received many statements, or reminders, that made me theorize, or at least be concerned, that this terrorism is related to the result of the presidential election. I would respond like this — that we should not point our fingers, or blame someone without proof. All theories and speculations must be proven in court. Our country is a lawful country, as well as a democratic one. Therefore, the norms of law and democracy must be enacted properly. If someone is guilty under the law, then we could say that the person is guilty. [SBY returns to the political / election theme.

Why does he do this if he is not trying to politicize these tragic bombings for personal political gain?

He is pointing fingers and casting about blame without proof. Unless a photo of a masked man shooting at a picture of his head is proof that the bombings are political. Then, if the bombings are political, why raise the spectre of terrorism?]

I must say for the first time to all Indonesians that during the series of legislative and presidential elections in 2009, there were several intelligence reports that were gathered by law enforcers. Once again, this information has never been made public. The report showed a group of terrorists had practiced shooting at my picture, SBY's picture, as a target. Let me show you. [See the above comment.]

This is a video recording of them practicing shooting. Two men are shooting with handguns. This is the target. And this is my picture, and they are aiming approximately at my face. This is the intelligence report, with video tape and pictures. It is not a slander, nor an issue. I received the report several moments ago. It is still related to the intelligence that acknowledged there is a plan to commit violence or actions against the law in relation to the election result. [Continuing with the theme that this is a political attack against him as the sitting president. A few pictures and a video is hardly evidence of a wide-ranging political conspiracy to assassinate him.]

There was also a plan to occupy the office of the General Elections Commission when the result is to announced. There was a statement that there would be a revolution if SBY wins. This is an intelligence report, not rumors, nor gossip. Other statements said they wished to turn Indonesia into [a country like] Iran. And the last statement said that no matter what, SBY should not and would not be inaugurated. You can interpret such threats, and the tens of other intelligence reports that are currently in the hands of our law enforcers. [Fear mongering at best. At worst this is a clear attempt to set the scene for a repressive crackdown on any political dissent by saying "if we do not stop it now then we will never be able to stop it".]

This morning, just like I used to do, I wanted to come personally to the location [of the attack]. But the Chief of Police and others suggested I should wait, since the area was not yet secure. And danger could come at any time, especially with all of the threats I have shown you. Physical threats. [This is a nice touch. No matter what the danger I am there for you my fellow citizens.]

Surely, life and death is in God's hands. I should not worry and be restrained in doing my duty to the people, to this country. Since presidential security is borne by the Indonesian Armed Forces, I believe the armed forces have taken the precautions needed. To all intelligence reports, whether they are related to the bombing or not, I have instructed to all law enforcers to perform their duties correctly, objectively, decisively and lawfully. [Clearly life and death is not exclusively in the hands of God. It is also in the backpacks and suitcase of bombers who care not for what God thinks with respect to the killing of innocents, they just go about their business of killing and maiming.

I have always had a few issues with the idea of a vengeful God that permits the killing of innocents.]

If the threats are not related to today's bombing, they still need to be prevented, because anarchy, violence, vandalism and all other crimes are not the characteristics of a democratic and lawful country, obviously. For all of this, I, as the president, condemn the brutal act of terrorism. I also feel very sorry about the incident. Perhaps, or usually, during times like this, many of us are afraid to express our scorns or condemnations due to political considerations. On the other hand, I must say it loud and clear, as my mandate as the president. [What? After all this talk about how the bombings were election related and an attempt to undermine political stability and related to a plot to assassinate you, there is still a chance that the bombings are terrorism and not political? OK deh!]

Why do I have to feel very sorry? First of all, you all know that for the last five years, our economy has been growing rapidly. Business, tourism, food self-sufficiency, investment, trade, real sectors, have all been moving favorably regardless of the global crisis. Secondly, during the last week alone, our stock exchange index were improving drastically and our Rupiah was strengthening [against US dollar] as well. With the growing economy, the welfare of our people was developing also, including the execution of poverty and unemployment eradication programs, which I usually mention as the Pro-People Program. [Ahhh, this is not a campaign stop and a photo opportunity to talk up the last five years you have been president. Besides, there has been plenty written in the lead up to the election that would suggest that your record is not quite as rosy as you make it out to be.]

All that has happened, my beloved brothers and sisters of Indonesia, is because in the last couple of years, our country has been truly safe and peaceful. In addition to the economic growth, our people throughout the country can work and live their lives in peace, free from fear. Meanwhile, the reputation of our country in the world is increasing as the world sees our country to be more safe, organized and peaceful. Our country has a blooming democracy and improved human rights implementation, a developing country that plays its role globally. Even, and this is a sad part, if the bombing did not occur, a legendary football club, Manchester United, would have played in Jakarta. [There are a few more things a little more sad than whether Manchester United plays a football game in Jakarta!]

My fellow countrymen and women, with all of these brutal and thoughtless acts of terrorism, what we have built in the last five years with the labor and sweat of all Indonesians, once again must endure another shake and setback. Implications, once again, must be borne by all Indonesians, minus the bombers. [Of course, particularly if the bombers were suicide bombers.]

Therefore, truth and justice will be served. I swear, for the sake of my beloved Indonesians, that the government will execute proper and decisive punishments to the bombers, including the mastermind and organizers, and for other crimes that might or could happen on our country nowadays. [Not likely. As I said, the authorities have not been able to catch the masterminds of the Munir assassination. So, why would this be any different?]

To the Indonesian Police Force, Indonesian Armed Forces and National Intelligence Agency, also the governors, district chiefs and mayors, I would like to ask you to remain on high-alert status and strive to prevent terrorism. More importantly, the law enforcers must truly seek, capture and prosecute the perpetrators, organizers, and masterminds behind this violence. Maybe some of them have committed crimes, assassination or murders and gotten away with these crimes, but this time we will not let them become Draculas and death-mongers in our country. [So, why did the State let these "Draculas" get away with crimes in the past and what has changed now?]

I realize that for the last five years, police have frequently prevented and stopped terrorism actions. Confiscating explosive materials, uncovering several terrorism networks, even though today's bombing has happened, a disaster that has torn the security and reputation of our country and nation. To prevent and exterminate terrorism, and other crimes properly, the intelligence [agency] must be very sharp. Prevention must be very effective. The police, the intelligence agency, the armed forces must unite in a complete synergy. Negligence and ignorance must be discarded. This is our mandate given by the people, for our country. [By whatever means necessary?]

To all Indonesians, as you increase public alertness, stay at your work and live your lives normally. If something suspicious happens, call the police. Don't let terrorists and their masterminds lurk in your neighborhood. You can fall prey to their actions at any time if they are allowed to mastermind further terror in our country. [This is similar to a program currently running in Australia. There are public service type announcements and advertisements on the TV asking people to report suspicious activities to the Australian authorities.]

For the future, I encourage all Indonesians and all elements of the nation to unite and stand together in protecting the safety and peace of this country. No country and no religion condones terrorism, whatever the motives and reasons are. Don't hesitate, nor be afraid, in preventing and exterminating terrorism. Meanwhile, the terror we had today should never break our spirit and endeavor to build and to advance our country. [Agreed. This is very sensible. Viva democracy, viva peace, viva Indonesia!]

We must keep on fighting to better our economy, politics, democracy, human rights implementation, law enforcement, regional development, people's welfare and so on. The fact is that there is a major catastrophe due to today's act of terrorism. But we will make it right together, and we shall rise and move forward again. We, the nation, the country and the people, shall not falter nor cave in to terrorism. No violence, extremism, and other crimes shall continue to live on this country.

God Almighty, Allah SWT, shall protect and save our lives. With God's blessings, I assure you, my brothers and sisters of Indonesia, that I shall stand right up front to face the clear and present danger and to carry out the hard, yet noble, mandate you have given to me.

Thank you, [You're welcome!]

Wassalamu’alaikum warahmatullahi wabarakatuh.

Will There Be A Runoff?

This is probably not the biggest question of the day but nevertheless it is an interesting question for Indonesian politics with charges being leveled at the various surveying agencies involved. The question is whether the incumbent president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono or SBY, will win the presidency in one round or two.

The Indonesian Survey Institute (Lembaga Survei Indonesia / LSI) issued survey results last week that suggest that SBY will win in one round as he polled somewhere around 70% support of those who were surveyed. These results were questioned as the survey was commissioned by Fox Indonesia. Fox Indonesia has links to the SBY campaign.

However, it is worth noting that the LSI conducted the survey and not Fox Indonesia. If the claim is that the LSI produced the results that Fox Indonesia wanted, then this brings into question the credibility of LSI. However those claiming that the results lack credibility have offered nothing more than the fact that Fox commissioned the survey.

In contrast to the LSI survey, the Information Research Institute (Lembaga Riset Informasi / LRI) conducted a survey of its own and achieved some very different results. It is clear that the LRI has links to the Kalla - Wiranto campaign through Kalla. The LRI went to some length stating that the survey was not commissioned by the Kalla - Wiranto campaign.

However, these links should not automatically disqualify the survey results obtained. What is interesting is that the Director of LRI, Johan Silalahi, has stated that if SBY wins in one round he would be willing to dissolve the LRI. He then issues a similar challenge to LSI on their credibility if the LSI results are not borne out in the presidential election.

The LRI survey still has SBY in front of the crowd but the difference suggests a two-round election process. The LRI survey results suggest that SBY has about 33% of the vote, Kalla trails on 29%, and Megawati is a somewhat distant third on 20%.

The argument for the difference in these results is that the has been a recent, and obviously rapid, movement of support to Kalla. This is being attributed to Muslims who are uncomfortable with SBY, particularly relating to the wearing of the jilbab and racism. Zulkieflimansyah of PKS (Prosperous Justice Party / Partai Keadilan Sejahtera), one of parties supporting SBY, has suggested that the members and followers of that party might support Kalla as his wife wears the jilbab.

The racism charges stem from the following comment by Ruhut Sitompul, who just happens to be a member of Partai Demokrat (Democratic Party / PD) Central Board (which happens to be SBY's party), "Arabs have never done anything for Indonesia." Reminds me of the film Forrest Gump, stupid is as stupid does. So, Ruhut, don't hold back; tell us what you think of Indonesians of Chinese, Indian, or Dutch descent.

So, who is right with these surveys? I suppose we will find out on 8 July 2009 when the presidential election is to be held. In the big scheme of things, and surveys aside, it would be interesting to hear and read what the actual policies of each of the candidate pairings are as this might be a little more relevant to the future of Indonesia.

Indonesian politics, lovin' it!

Megawati -- The Cult of Personality

The heading to this post is probably a bit of a misnomer as Megawati lacks the charisma and personality of her illustrious father and the first president of Indonesia, Soekarno. The fact that this former president who failed in her first crack at the top job is still being seriously considered for another go on the merry-go-round says something about the state of Indonesian politics. That something is sad. The fact that this series is dealing with old political names is indicative of the lack of a platform that up-and-coming politicians have been able to carve out for themselves.

Back to Megawati. Megawati's base is the Democratic Party of Indonesia for Struggle or the PDI-P. The PDI-P symbol is a bull with a white nose and the colour of the party is blood red. The bull with the white nose, I am guessing, is supposed to symbolize strength and purity. For others though it is probably not a bull at all but rather a cow with a powdered nose after regular trips to the salon. Then again it might indeed be a bull and is supposed to indicate that the party is devoid of a coherent policy platform and in is in other words full of crap, bull crap!

My friend the treespotter ranks the symbol on its cool factor. This might be my next post after this presidential series, ranking all the party symbols based on their cool factor. Besides, we should not under-estimate the cool factor because the Indonesian way of voting is to take a nail and stab it through the face of the candidate or their party symbol. So, perhaps the more cool the better the chance of getting stabbed in the face.

The PDI-P formed as a spin-off from the old PDI and eclipsed its predecessor immediately for appeal to the masses. The spin-off occurred when Soeharto in his infinite wisdom through the deployment of his cronies and other sycophant brown-nosers decided to teach little old Mega a lesson in knowing your place in the political spectrum. Some of these brown-nosers include a recently retired Governor with a vision of higher political office.

Unfortunately, the blood-letting that ensued and the disappearances of young activists at the hands of the authorities only served to make Mega and her band of followers look like martyrs in the defense of the little people. One day even dictators will learn that they need to employ good public relations people to spin their stupidity when that inevitable time comes.

Megawati has taken the 27 July attack and used it to her advantage to get a crack at the presidency of Indonesia as its fourth president. Using the attack to her political advantage was a wise move and it was an important part of a series of events that would ultimately lead to the downfall of an entrenched dictator.

However, much of what was gained in these tumultuous events was squandered by Megawati and her party to the detriment of any legacy she might have been able to create. The PDI-P is a party of the little people or the wong cilik. It is also the party in many ways of the marhaen. The marhaen movement is one that brings in the rural vote, those farmers (many share-croppers) doing it tough in the regions and looking for a political party that would support their struggle. This party has always been the party that has carried on the Soekarno legacy. Who better than the daughter, Megawati, and her party the PDI-P?

The PDI-P is dominated as much by Soekarno as it is by his daughter. A brief trip around Jakarta, or throughout the archipelago for that matter, will open your eyes to the method that the PDI-P employs to capitalize on the first president of Indonesia. Just about all advertising for the party includes Soekarno's mugshot. Sometimes even more prominently than that of the current party chairwoman.

The PDI-P is a party that relies on the cult of personality to remain relevant. The biggest asset they seem to have is that Megawati is the daughter of Soekarno and therefore a vote for the daughter is a vote for the father. It is just to bad that the old fella has been dead for so long.

What is truly amazing is that the PDI-P can continue to pull this off.

Megawati believes that the presidency is her birthright and as such this is probably more the motivation for continuing to toss her hat in the electoral ring than the desire to truly help the little people. The party platform is a nationalist one with underpinnings of Soekarno style Marxism (more socialist than anything else and not all that sinister). Unfortunately, Mega just does not have the oratory skills of her father or the charisma to truly pull off a good inspiring speech. It does not help that to all intents and purposes Megawati never has really been part of the wong cilik nor has she been a marhaen. Simply road trips to the slums of Jakarta and the share croppers elsewhere does not provide the insights she needs to make an impassioned plea, the plea necessary to rally the masses to her cause.

The PDI-P could be a party of much more. However, it really does need to regenerate in terms of getting more young people involved and getting them into positions of authority. It is time Megawati took a back seat role along with some of her trusted lieutenants in order that the new generation can take on a greater role and drive real change and reform. My guess is that if this does not happen soon then many of the major parties, and not just the PDI-P, will see their primary vote erode and be dispersed among the myriad of minor parties contesting the 2009 elections.

The PDI-P and Megawti will have had five years in the period to 2009 where they could have carved out a niche for themselves. However, this has not been done, in essence it is an opportunity lost in terms of redefining the party. Megawati and her lieutenants like to claim they have been effective in opposition. Unfortunately, the Indonesian government does not lend itself to the Westminster system of government where there is a clearly defined opposition.

The PDI-P if they have been opp anything have been opportunistic in not missing an opportunity to snipe at the current government. But is must be noted that sniping at the government without offering concrete alternative policy is hardly being an alternative government in opposition.

The reasons not to vote for Megawati far outweigh the reasons to vote for Megawati. Her first jaunt in the big chair was a failure. There has been nothing in the five years interim to this that would even remotely suggest a second time round in the big chair would turn out any differently to the first.

I bet there are plenty of Indonesians that are glad I am not one of them and get a vote in this coming election.

Zimbabwe

The Dictator

The Opposition Leader

The Economy

I am not a person that has an in-depth knowledge of Africa or the African Continent and perhaps I am batting out of my league with this post. However, that is not the point as I am not intending to provide any analysis of the situation per se but rather pose a question or two.


The economy in Zimbabwe is spiralling out of control with inflation running at more than 1000% and this is forcing the government to print money (above picture) and this then puts even more pressure on the economy. It is sad that the Zimbabweans have gone from being the bread basket of Africa to being its biggest basket case.


The current leader is proud of being compared to Hitler and has gone on the record as saying he would like to be Hitler ten-fold. He is running an election campaign that is relying on violence to get the desired outcome. This has surprisingly brought out a little spine in the British government, the former colonial masters, who have publicly named the individuals that they believe are orchestrating the campaign violence.


The opposition leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, has pulled out of the run-off poll. This means a default win for Mugabe. Yet, Tsvangirai has a point in that the risks to people to come out and vote are high, particularly when one considers that Mugabe appears intent on keeping power by any means necessary. Reports of intensifying violence are increasing.


It seems abundantly clear to me that Mugabe is a tyrant and a dictator determined to do whatever it takes to cling to power. This includes not only running the Zimbabwean economy into the ground but also arbitrarily arrest, torture, and kill his own people if necessary in order to cling to power. The only difference that I see between Mugabe and Saddam Hussein is that there is no false claims about Mugabe having weapons of mass destruction and Zimbabwe has no oil.


So, here is my question:


Why is it that the US felt the need to go into Iraq to remove a nasty dictator and then call on the rest of the world to come into a coalition and support them, but they do not seem to feel there is any need to do the same thing with an increasingly violent dictator in Zimbabwe?


Call me a cynic but is it because there is no oil?

Gus Dur for President?

Gus Dur never seems to be far from the news, I think he likes it that way too! Gus Dur has made headlines by stating his intention to contest the 2009 Presidential elections not necessarily to win but more so in the Don Chipp vein of the Australian Democrats of "keeping the bastards honest!" Yet, the idea of Gus Dur running again in 2009 after the debacle of his candidacy in 2004 raises some obvious questions.

The simple truth for Gus Dur is that he failed in 2004 because he was unable to satisfy the strict health conditions placed on individuals seeking the Presidency. Are the health conditions discriminatory? Well, the answer here depends on who is making the decisions and the subjectivity or objectivity of the decision maker. But the rules from 2004 have been maintained and without any reports suggesting that the former President's health has improved it seems likely that he would 'fail' any future medical tests ordered by the Election Commission.

Gus Dur is a skilled populist but this proved to be his undoing in his presidency as the bureaucracy and more importantly the more-established political interests were never able to settle into a routine. Gus Dur as a populist often saw him referred to as being like the wind; being able to blow in any direction required. This is an entirely different concept from adjusting one's sails to catch the wind and this is what most solidified opposition against him personally and his presidency.

Gus Dur is an enigmatic character and as such will garner support for any potential bid to return to the No. 1 chair. Unfortunately, it is unlikely that this support will translate into enough pressure to get him through the health test phase let alone secure the votes needed to be elected.

The man is a valuable addition to the political scene in that in his own special way he does get the community talking about issues that are important to the broader community as a whole, which is always good from a news standpoint as it gives us journalists and wannabe journalists 'stuff' to right about! And it also gives comics an endless supply of material for parody.

Regional Elections in Sulawesi

The Supreme Court (SC) of Indonesia is doing its bit to ensure uncertainty remains after the recent election in South Sulawesi to choose a Regional Head. The incumbent Governor lost a close election by less than 0.8% of the primary vote. To be sure in any democracy this would be close enough to demand a recount. If the election commission would not provide a recount then the candidates have recourse to the SC to have any objections to the election result judicially determined.

The incumbent Governor did just that but I am sure he was not expecting the gift that the SC gave him in a 3 - 2 split decision. The decision is bizarre as it appears to extend considerably further than the current regulatory powers provided to the SC to decide cases such as this. The Law on Regional Government (Law No. 32/2004) in Articles 104(1) and (2) and 106(2) grants the SC the power to order new elections under very limited circumstances such as where votes cannot be counted or vote boxes are treated in an irregular manner inconsistent with prevailing regulations, as well as a number of other counting problems such as rioting supporters.

The SC has issued a Regulation (No. 6 of 2006) only grants the SC the power to cancel the announced results by the election commission and announce the correct count as determined by the SC. In none of the Regulations is there a power for the SC to annul results and demand a new election take place. In effect the SC decision does just that. The SC in essence has held that the vote in four districts (Bone, Gowa, Tana Toraja, and Bantaeng) were invalid and the election must be held again.

This is the really bizarre part as the wording of the decisions suggests that the local election commission will have to re-hold the election from scratch. Stupidity at its best as it goes on to state that the election commission has three to six months to get this done. Unfortunately, the incumbent Governor's term expires on 20 January 2008. But the real stupidity is that re-holding the election in effect should invalidate the whole election as if the process was to start from scratch then new candidates could theoretically be nominated. The big winner here is Golkar as it in effect gives their candidate, the incumbent Governor, a second bite of the apple.

The decision clearly appears to extend beyond the authority of the SC in this instance. A recount should have been ordered and the candidates accept the results of the recount. The necessity to hold the election in these four districts is unproved by the applicant and in reality this is not what the incumbent Governor asked for. The application was for a recount.

Democracy works in strange ways. The issue is not whether the incumbent has a right to object to the count, he does in this instance, but rather the mechanism for satisfying the right to object. The SC seems to be saying it objects too to the limitations on its authority so it is going to ignore them and issues decisions as it sees fit.

No wonder people continue to question the independence of the courts and the legal certainty that they do not regularly provide. Yet, the case is not over as the election commission can appeal this decision and conceivably have the decision overturned on judicial review.

Give Democracy A Chance

The elections in Thailand seem set to end 15 months of army rule. The coup was bloodless and generally pretty orderly but the elections are nothing short of a slap in the face to the Generals that led it and perhaps in a sense to the King who OK-ed it. The Thais hold their King in great reverence so it will probably not be a big part of the news but it should not be forgotten that the King could of ended the coup but he did not.

Nevertheless, once the inevitable recriminations start it is worth remembering that the former Prime Minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, was having some serious questions asked of him in regards to his leadership and lingering corruption issues. However, that aside it is the party, People's Power Party (PPP) with the closest affiliation to the disbanded party, Thai Rak Thai, that he led that has claimed the largest number of seats.

John Lennon might have sung about giving peace a chance, but it is equally true for democracy. Give democracy a chance and people will take it. Democracy is never going to be perfect but it sure beats the yoke of dictatorship, authoritarian, and military rule.

The former PM has been living in exile and even if he was to return there remain outstanding corruption charges against him that still need to be resolved. However, he has been busy in exile playing golf all over the world with rounds reported in Bali among other places. But even more so the billionaire has invested in England with the purchase of the Manchester City Football Club.

So, the question is does he really need to return to Thailand and aside from clearing his name of the corruption charges does he need to? His investments and the relaxation he seems to have found on the golf course is hardly the behaviour of a billionaire business mogul plotting his eventual return to a political career.

I guess time will tell on this one...

Viva Democracy!!!

Indonesian Presidents - A Question of Ethnicity - A Storm in a Tea Cup

The Vice-President is in full campaign mode, some might argue he has been since the 2004 election, as he and Golkar make a move on the Presidency. Despite the professions of loyalty and acceptance of the current President, it is clear that Golkar is positioning itself to secure the biggest parliamentary majority and return one of its own to Chair Number 1 in 2009. Will they succeed, well that is another blog entry for another time.

The point of this blog is to give nothing but a superficial analysis of the comments attributed to Jusuf Kalla at a discussion held on 1 November 2007 on the first three years of the Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono - Kalla Government. These comments were simple but always prone to stir debate in anyone that has not really been paying attention to constitutional amendments. And Kalla himself was careful to premise his statement on the opinions of people that say the President must be Javanese are being discriminative and not the law - the law says something different to be sure!

Kalla merely said that any prospective president can be of any ethnicity and they just do not always have to be Javanese - true. This would be good for Kalla being from Sulawesi. But when it is all said and done this is just a case of the Vice-President stirring the pot. For what purpose, who knows, only he can answer that! Although in the era of transmigration you could be of Javanese ancestry but have never lived on the island of Java. In this regard you could also be Indonesian of Chinese ancestry and your family might not have lived in China for 5, 6, 7 or more generations. The same goes for Indonesians of Arabic or Indian ancestry who have a long and storied history throughout the archipelago.

The issue revolves around Article 6(1) of the 1945 Constitution of the Republic of Indonesia, which in its simplicity states that the President must be a native Indonesian. In Indonesian, "Presiden ialah orang Indonesia asli". The debate about whether 'asli' means native, original, indigenous, or something else would seem to be all but settled with the third series of constitutional amendments confirmed on 9 November 2001, which amended this very Article.

But exactly what is a native Indonesian. Is this an Indonesian by birth or it this someone who is indigenous to the archipelago that is now Indonesia or is it someone indigenous to the island of Java? Pressing questions indeed as we head into another presidential election or not!

Because if we return to the constitutional amendments, there were four of them (if you are interested, they can be accessed in Indonesian here or a complete unofficial English translation here), the third of these is the most critical to this non-debate. The third amendment defines native Indonesian as any Indonesia citizen who has been a citizen from birth, who has not held any other citizenship of their own free will, has never betrayed their country, and is of sound mind & body in order to perform the duties of President or Vice-President.

Case Closed!

Native Indonesian is clearly anyone born here. So, the debate about whether the President has to be Javanese or not is a non-debate. As are the unnamed personal opinions to which the Vice-President refers. The President can be any Indonesian born in the Republic, and those born outside of it to Indonesian parents, irrespective of whether your family ancestry is Arab, Indian, Chinese, or Australian, or anything else for that matter!

The reality is that the the island of Java supports the largest number of Indonesian citizens and the conspiracy theorists will tell you that when all the Javanese get together and are convinced of their inherent right that the President must be Javanese then it is a foregone conclusion that the President must be Javanese.

I guess if you do not have anything more serious to focus on then a conspiracy theory is always a fun diversion!

It is not one's ethnicity that is important but rather one's ability to 'network' in the lion's den (or perhaps more aptly a traders' market) that is Indonesian politics. The only thing in Kalla's way is his ability to network enough votes and his appeal to the masses. The beauty of direct presidential elections is that if you are teflon-coated and have minor party support there is no reason why you cannot sit in Chair Number 1.

That said, the small parties still understand the reality that they have to court the support of bigger parties and that is why the current President and Vice-President fit this picture.

Viva Democracy!

The Jakarta Gubernatorial Elections

The following part was written in the days before the election...

With the campaign period winding down and public debates by the candidates restricted to stage-managed media events now is a good a time as any to reflect on what the future holds for most Jakartans after the election is concluded and the new Governor installed. The candidates are chalk and cheese in terms of political experience with the incumbent Deputy Governor, now looking to be Governor in his own right, being a bureaucrat most of his professional life. On the other hand, there is a retired police officer who reached the pinnacles of his chosen profession now looking to branch out into the political field.



If the election was to be decided only on party support then the incumbent Deputy Governor is a certain winner. Indonesia is no different from any other democracy in that it is not always the best policies that get you elected to office. Yet, it is worth looking at the candidates' policies to see what the future holds. However, considering the level of apathy that abounds in the community where in some surveys the best estimate says that there may be only 35% eligible voter turnout. This means that the next Governor of Jakarta could be elected to office with as little as 17.6% of registered voters. It is always interesting to see a democracy where people for so long did not have the freedom to vote as they choose, struggle to get that right, and then once they do not exercise it. This is an argument or discussion for another blog entry on another day.



Back to the policies of the candidates. As is the case with most politicians their policies are big on rhetoric and somewhat skint on details. However, this said, at least one of the candidates was prepared to enter into a social contract with civil society on promises like reducing unemployment, reducing poverty, reducing flooding, and a number of other key issues for Jakarta. It would be interesting to see whether or not he would want to be held to this social contract in the future, a sort of live by the contract die by the contract venture. There are serious issues facing Jakarta and Jakartans into the future - unemployment is one, the others though are equally and if not more important, such as generating capital investment, reducing pollution which in turn may reduce flooding, improving general law enforcement, reducing corruption and illegal payments in the public sector and public services, transportation infrastructure, and reducing poverty, to name but a few of the challenges. I guess only time will tell on this front...

The following is written after the completion of the election process...

The incumbent Deputy Governor took the vote albeit not by the sizable margin predicted. More interesting and promising for the future was that all the dire predictions of minimal voter turnout did not materialize with some estimates suggesting a turnout of 75% of registered voters. Despite the smaller than expected margin of victory it is clear that the Governor-elect has a mandate to govern. Hopefully, with the support of some 19 political parties this will translate into effective government. However, the winds of change are ever-present as political parties are all too often populist in nature and chop and change course at a heartbeat in pursuit of greater public support.

Life goes on!