Schapelle Corby and 12,000 Indonesians?

VIVAnews is reporting that the Australian Attorney General has made an offer to the Indonesian Attorney General that is essence goes along these lines:

"There are 12,000 Indonesians in Australian prisons with an average sentence of five years, we will trade those 12,000 for Schapelle Corby". At least this is the understanding of Babul Khoir Harahap, the Head of the Information Center at the Office of the Attorney General in Jakarta.

According to Harahap, the Attorney General of Indonesia has agreed. The matter has now been sent to the Minister for Law and Human Rights, Patrialis Akbar, for approval. My guess is that with a clemency appeal pending that this will also cross the desk of the President, SBY.

This offer apparently was provided by Roger Wilkis of the Attorney General's Department in Australia to the Attorney General of Indonesia, Basrief Arief. Australia's Ambassador, Greg Moriarty was also in attendance at this meeting of the minds.

Corby has received 17 months worth of remissions to date and this program of remissions is likely to accelerate as she serves more of her sentence. Nevertheless, the prospect of a "swap agreement" and immediate freedom must be a positive development for Corby in her current fragile mental state.

Then again, this story could be a beat-up or a complete misrepresentation of the discussions held and any offer made. It seems outrageous that the Australian government is going to swap 12,000 Indonesians convicted of crimes in Australia for one Australian convicted of a drug-possession crime in Indonesia. This must surely weaken Australia's bargaining position for other Australian prisoners doing time in Indonesian jails. What is Australia going to offer up for the release of members of the Bali Nine or more importantly to get those Bali Nine members on death row, off of death row?

I am not against the idea, in principle of a swap, but there needs to be a whole lot more information on what the swap entails. The response from the Australian public is not necessarily going to be favourable. There are plenty of Australians who think that Schapelle Corby has done enough time for the crime she was convicted of. However, they might not be so certain that she is worth 12,000 Indonesians in order to secure that early freedom.

This is certainly an interesting development if it pans out to be true.

Bakrie -- Will They or Won't They?

The Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX) announced on Wednesday (5/11) that they were going to lift the suspension on trade that had been in effect on PT Bumi Resources. However, not long after this announcement was made, and presumably a few phone calls later, another announcement was made. The second announcement was that the suspension in trade would remain in force.

The issue is seemingly becoming less transparent and more complex. The press release issued by the Bakrie Group of Companies suggested that the deal was between Northstar and Bumi Resources with a number of SOEs also buying into the USD 1.3 deal. Word on the street is that the role of the SOEs is far from certain as is any stake they might take up. It seems that the current state of affairs is that there is a tentative deal in place for Northstar to provide finance.

In terms of the announcements, there are relieable sources suggesting that the current Coordinating Minister of Economic Affairs / Minister of Finance, Sri Mulyani, was in favour of lifting the suspension. This would suggest that the subsequent announcement to reinstate the suspension came from someone higher up the food chain. This would most likely be the President.

It is unlikely to be the Vice President. Simply, the more trouble Bakrie is in the easier it will be for Kalla to exert his influence over Golkar. It is reported that the current President ascended the top job in part because of funds supplied by Bakrie (this might explain the loyalty shown to one of cabinet's most poorly performing Ministers). The reality is that the deeper the hole Bakrie finds himself in the less likely it is that he can be King or Queen Maker in the upcoming elections.

Nevertheless, the mere fact that the government became involved in the lifting of the suspension is a loser in the "court of public opinion", as it will be seen as protecting the interests of a cabinet Minister and not about protecting the interests of the State. Whether this is true or not is irrelevant in the court of public opinion, if it smells bad and it looks bad, then it is bad! The fact that the presidential spokesman comes out and says that Bakrie companies are not his concern is hardly reassuring.

That said, the logic on keeping the suspension in place is that as soon as the suspension is lifted it is likely people holding Bumi shares will seek to offload even with a purported deal in place.

The deal between Northstar and Bakrie plus the SOEs is supposed to be complete within 28 days. I wonder whether the suspension will stay in place until the deal is signed, sealed, and delivered?

Ah, must be nice to be the Coordinating Minister of the Bakrie Family Welfare, oops I meant to say the Coordinating Minister of People's Welfare (photo -- always smiling and why wouldn't you be?).